Member Info for jaskk

I suspect the market will await the outcome of the Makerfield election ( I certainly am ) before deciding which way this will go in the short term. My suspicion is that a Burnham win will be a strong negative for the pound and interest rates will spike especially if the socialist Miliband becomes chancellor. This is a hold currently until the fog clears politically.

Personally I would hold off for a bit. There is a real possibility of a political mess / left leaning government sending interest rates up. On top of that it looks as though Trump maybe backed into a corner and if he decides that he has already lost the mid terms, then who knows what might happen. I’m certainly watching, if however it drops below 90p to support levels of 88p, I may take a chance. Too many uncertainties at the moment.

Looking at the time and price, it appears to be a sell.

Interest rates will now be higher for longer as the price of oil filters into the inflation figures. There was already alot of distress within the housing market and I suspect this will push many over the edge. If interest rates come down towards the end of the year it will be because we are in a recession - not good for house builders. Labour of course could make matters alot worse if they lean more to the left and lose confidence in the debt markets, on that we will soon find out.

It's not going bust, all shares are down. This along with other house builders are currently being shorted en masse, due to the war and to protect positions. Once this sorts itself out, I would expect a strong bounce higher as shorts unwind. The country still needs to build houses.

Oil price, inflation expectations ie material costs, interest rates rising etc etc

Its not just the war that is effecting these, but also the possibility that we are about to witness a hard left government which would result in a loss of confidence to the debt markets and interest rates going up. The housing market is at its 18 year cycle and is well overdue a correction based on fundamentals. Vistry have done the right thing concentrating on social housing, but all house builders will be hit. I would expect a lot of repricing of landbanks soon that were bought when rates were close to zero. A lot of these companies are now run by people who have never witnessed a recession or housing market crash. Interesting times ahead.

The land bank is only as good as the price paid for it. If most of it is made up of overinflated land values when interest rates were 0.5 %, then I doubt they would stack up in today’s environment. I would expect a write down at some point.

Share buybacks are a sign the company thinks land is too expensive and they can’t find anywhere else to put the money to work. Not a good sign. Vistry are paying down debt which also means they think interest rates are at risk of either staying here for longer or going up again. Labour are in danger of losing confidence in the debt markets. None of this bodes well for the housing market

Margins for schemes with end buyers already in place are typically lower and funded by the housing associations. So unless you compare with another house builder with exactly the same mix/model, it will be hard to compare. Getting money in, paying down debt and buying ( selective ) land at this part of the cycle is exactly what they should be doing. Share buybacks are a sign of a company with nothing else to do with the money. Interest rates at this level ( maybe slightly lower ) are now the norm - it’s been a long time coming. They appear to be well set up for future growth.

Cost overruns are included as standard within any contract - ie due to inflation or extras / changes. This is standard. All the risk is in the ground and that can be mitigated with a good soil survey and a reasonable contingency to some extent. Another risk would be labour costs, but that has been known about for a number years now and again would have been costed. I suspect today’s drop was a buying opportunity and shorters playing games in a jittery market. There is a shortage of affordable/ social housing and that is the right plan to follow and tends to be recession proof to some extent with an end buying in place.

That was an uncrossing trade and the market makers selling their stock to balance the book. Normally an UT selling that many into the market bodes well for the next day. We shall see.

Lol. Dumbest comment ever. Let’s see how the socialists in Brussels get on when they are no longer being subsidized. Odd how many of them have remained in positions of power for so long, shuffling from one post to the other. I’m no fan of Trumps position in the Ukraine, but the EU have hardly covered themselves in glory either ( apart from Poland ).

I believe this will be taken out by an American company at a much higher price and will be used a a foothold for Trump to influence his ambition for Greenland. Just a matter of when rather than if in my opinion.

The downward profitability target was done to concentrate on bringing forward production from next year is my understanding and I am sure that would have been communicated to those who invested in the placing. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if they suggested it get done sooner with the money just raised.

I’m bet the institutions have lent their shares to hedge funds to push this down during one of the most illiquid months in the calendar. They knew a director had to sell for tax reasons. They are after stop losses and weak hands to gain more shares and average down. It happened similar time last year and bottomed at circa 58p on 13th September. If it gets there, I’m buying more. It’s a waiting game.

There is no way that institutions that have just bought in would be selling. It would not just affect this share price, but also credibility on their respective investments in other companies. No bona fide institutional investor will want their reputation tarnished as a bucket shop flipper.

Fundraisers have been even circa 5/6 months apart and preceded by a rise in the share price. The last one was the key as it included institutional investors. I would certainly not be concerned. If however nothing has moved forward by mid to end of September, I would rightly be concerned. This time though I believe it will happen judging by HA body language ( and I do not like him at all ) and those institutions that have just recently invested.

I’m more excited about the possibility of rare earth minerals. There’s a reason Trumps is interested in Greenland and I see this company being bought out at some point by a larger US miner.

This is being sold.