Member Info for jaskk

Free cash flow up 20% in 4th quarter and up 7% in full year. Pretty impressive give COVID and likely to improve further as lockdowns end and years COVID jabs begin.

Not sure, but could be a rollover of debt at better rates. Great time to take on low interest fixed long term debt whilst rates are so low if you can get it, knowing that inflation will eventually erode its value.

It is a great company. The problem is the strength of sterling. I sold out this morning as I believe sterling has a lot further to recover/gain against the dollar and this will continue to fall. The bottom maybe when a Brexit deal is announced and sterling spikes. Then ( and its only a guess ) might be the time to buy.

Amazon opening online pharmacy is the reason for the dip in sector.

Got a short on have we ? Getting nervous ? The investment in cannabis should do well under the new US government, with Kamala wanting to legalise.

Debt levels are far too high and they are selling assets into a weak oil price and at the same time as many of the oil majors who are also going down the renewable route. They paid down debt last quarter by issuing bonds, not through profit. The market cap is now the same as their debt level. There is a huge amount of uncertainty with Covid, US election and Brexit ( whether a deal is done or not ) When Warren Buffett a long time bear on Gold buys in, you know the world economy is in trouble. To counter that if Trump gets in, ( Biden will be a disaster for the majors ) I suspect this will do well - but for how long ?

A further dividend cut is not going to happen. They have already stated they are looking at a break even oil price of $35 and are already on there way to achieving this. I think it’s sensible to diversify and have a greater energy mix for the future.

And still no major director purchases

I would hold off topping up, poor general sentiment due to US elections, Brexit, possible second lockdown etc so all shares will drift and possibly sell off due to the uncertainty.

My only observation is that none of the directors have made significant purchases of the shares at these supposed low levels. I submitted a question on this at one the recent results Q & A, but got no response. I suppose they will end up awarding themselves large share options at zero risk to themselves at some point with no risk. This could be a bargain, but sceptical at the moment.

Too much uncertainty, I'm afraid its a shorter's market, US elections, Brexit negotiations, potential second wave, government (uk) incompetence, overbought technicals etc etc

In addition, I suspect that if Trump gets elected both the dollar and the oil price will rally.

The main risk here is whether governments are going to penalise/tax further tobacco companies due to Covid. They will be an easy target and I suspect popular target amongst many. That in addition to the fact that many will also try to give up due to the virus and try to live healthier. I suspect Covid has become a game changer for tobacco stocks.

Spin it anyway you want, this creates huge uncertainty and now no guarantee this will happen. There are less risky plays out there. Hope Im wrong for those that stay invested but I m out.

ToffAppleton1 - maybe, but better to wait for the dust to settle. BAT is a great company, but with Covid affecting the lungs will it speed up the demise of smoking ? What with the disease, US election, major recession around the corner, idiot politicians etc etc not a great time to be invested at all, certainly not until there is more clarity.

It's a great defensive company, my suspicion is that the falling dollar and general uncertainty is affecting the share price. Great time to buy, hold and ignore the noise.

DGR1980 - if they had been properly managed they would not have had to raise capital and would have had cash on the balance sheet. Tony Pidgley may he rest in peace, new the housing market was cyclical and as well as offloading huge amounts of shares over the last few years, built up a cash reserve. We are long overdue a housing market correction and this is just the beginning. Taylor Wimpey are a risk, ignore the fact the director participated in the fundraise, he will no doubt have this amount covered when share options get awarded.

The interesting thing about the 1st quarter trading update is that it has group sales of 13,380 compared to 13,978 in the same quarter last year which is circa 4.5% less, despite the fact that both Poland and the Asian figures have bee excluded in the recent figures. Now consider that the sale of the Asian business is roughy 25% of the current market cap and you can see what a great move it is. It is always costly and very difficult breaking into new markets, not to mention exchange rate issues etc. In this climate, sticking to the basics, concentrating at what you do best and strengthening the balance sheet, is always the best option, rather than spreading yourself thin, trying to manage markets that you don't know well enough, with all the local politics it involves.

Seen it all before, someone trying to buy in cheaply from the impatient. This a great defensive company with good cashflow, especially worth holding as we head into a severe recession and the potential of a second Covid wave. They have already started reporting financials excluding the Asian business ( as well as the now sold Polish business ) and the dividend is well covered and predicted to grow, which is high in a zero / negative interest rate environment. Patience is key and to ignore the noise ( 5 for 3 shares rubbish etc ). This will re-rate to circa £2.50 plus ( fair value ) when the deal lands and I wouldn't be surprised if there is not a share buy back as well as special dividend.

Rubbish. Got a short on ?