Member Info for jascott2510

To confirm my understanding, and happy to be corrected/shot down, don't we need to separate the two testing routes when debating capacity?

(1) In-house Covid-19 tests processed by YGEN staff at the Manchester lab. Current capacity 10k per month. Estimated at £42 per test to YGEN.

(2) Clarigene SARS CoV-2 CE-IVD - processed by whichever institution buys the test. YGEN manufacture and sell them. Likely to increase testing capacity via high throughput technology. Current capacity is estimated at 500k up to the end of 2020. Unknown margins for these tests (but likely to be much less than (1)).

In relation to (1) LR stated: "We are actively increasing this capacity to support the Government “moonshot” scheme using proceeds from the recent fundraise." This for me is where the capacity constraints are/will be. LR said many times that he will not grow the Covid-19 in-house testing at the expense of the NIPT business. So how much can we increase capacity without impacting the NIPT business and when do we start to feel these constraints - 20k, 30k, 50k tests per month? Moonshot market will be massive so that isn't the limiting factor. It will be our ability to scale.

In relation to (2), we could see sizeable orders fairly soon from the institutions mentioned. This seems ready to go. Could the NHS be one? And could that be our additional way of contributing to Moonshot? Even at £5 to YGEN per test, the extra revenue from 500k tests is not insignificant.

I don't think there is any question that the demand will be there for the Covid-19 testing - either from the NHS, other public bodies or the private sector. If you think about the scale of the Government's ambitions (500k tests per day by end of October, millions per day by early next year), 10,000 tests PER MONTH is such a small number that it will get swallowed up without touching the sides. 10,000 tests per month equates to 300-350 tests per day. 350 tests out of a nationwide daily testing volume of 500,000 is 0.07%.

The question for me isn't so much whether we can be of use to the NHS - we obviously can - but more about how much we can offer. In other words, what challenges do we face in scaling up to 50,000, 100,000, 150,000 tests? Costs, people, space? Is it even feasible without impacting the NIPT business? Could the NHS be one of the 10 institutions evaluating our Clarigene test and so would be taking a chunk of the 500k extra tests mentioned?

I think he initially said yes, but then back-tracked somewhat by stating he didn't want to give away pricing information to competitors. Either way, if they state the number of tests performed, the revenue estimates will follow. It is scale that matters.

Lots of positives to come from the presentation (by no means an exhaustive list):

>> Speaking to NHS about offering Covid-19 testing services as part of Moonshot. This could see many more blocks of 10k tests being utilised over the autumn and winter.

>> 10 providers (8 of which are international) evaluating the Clarigene test and likely to result in testing revenues in additional to the blocks of 10k serviced from Manchester. 500k additional tests available between now and the end of the year.

>> Covid-19 quarterly testing updates will include tests performed and revenue.

>> Very excited about the launch of the IONA Nx test, exploring regulatory approvals in major global markets. Opens up 60% of previously inaccessible global market.

>> DPYD test seems to offer great potential, our test is a market leader and the market is massive.

>> Yourgene Flex Analysis – launching in the US & Japan. Seems to be a product in its own right now, rather than part of a bundle.

>> Genomic Research Services coming soon. Watch this space.

>> Nasdaq listing is on the cards.

Couldn't agree more Steve67! Those were dark days. I remember the litigation RNS morning and the period of stagnation that followed very well.

Whatever your current concerns are, Lyn Rees deserves massive credit for digging us out of that particular hole and delivering a way forward with Illumina. The headwinds for the company have been significantly reduced in the last year or two.

To be fair, there is cold hard cash coming in, the problem is we do not know how much each deal adds to the pot. Therefore you get a muted response to each RNS deal that comes through.

Let's see what the 2020 half-year report states when it's released (expecting it at the end of this month based on previous years). We already know H1 2020 revenue is greater than the total revenue for 2019 (£745k). And we also know that revenues are typically heavily weighted towards H2. So it will be interesting to see what forward-looking revenue statements are made.

But it seems fairly safe to say that full year 2020 revenue should be greater than double that of 2019. We could be looking at 2020 revenues of £2.0-2.5m, if not more, which should see us formally smashing through break-even into profitability.

This statement from this morning's RNS may have also been overlooked:

"With the Company exploring listings in international markets, increasing global brand exposure both as an ingredient and as a finished product in retailers and online enhance the awareness of OptiBiotix's scientific and commercially validated technologies."

Seems like a Nasdaq listing could be on the cards in the not too distant future.

I'm amazed by the negativity.

The share price hasn't rocketed, but take a step back and look at what is going on. This company is lined up to increase its revenue massively (at least in % terms) over the next few months and years. I understand the frustrations, as all the good news doesn't seem to be translating into share price uplift, but the facts are positive:

>> Launched a top-class Covid-19 PCR test and will be processing 10k tests monthly from October. That translates to £420k per month, or c.£5m per year.

>> They have confirmed they want to expand Covid-19 testing capacity and will do it in blocks of 10k. So that means with 'just' expansion of 10k tests, the Covid-19 test will be generating revenue of £10m annually. £15m if they do 30k tests, and so on. That's before you add in any revenue from the 500k additional capacity mentioned in the BRR media presentation. Covid-19 testing is likely to be required for years to come, so that's likely to be recurring revenue. Putting that into perspective, our total revenue for 2019-20 was £16.6m (which in itself was an 89% increase from the year before). Covid-19 testing, a new business line launched only a few months ago, could double our annual revenue in its first year.

>> We have launched the IONA NX test which allows us to sell to 60% of the global market which wasn't accessible before. This has the potential to double our 2019-20 NIPT revenue, if not more.

>> We have just started (or will shortly) the distribution of our products into the US market. Hard to quantify how much revenue this will be worth but I'd estimate it would be significant and build over time (they stated $30m in the RNS yesterday but that didn't cover all products, such as Covid-19 testing).

>> Our NIPT, oncology and reproductive business lines are all expected to achieve strong organic growth from the 2019-20 figures.

Put all of that together and you get a very significant increase in revenue for 2020-21 and beyond.

The deal to supply Novacyt is dead. It was replaced by YGEN launching its own test. But not sure whether any revenue was generated from the deal up until the point it was killed off. I think LR confirmed it as part of the presentation Steve67 shared a few days ago.

https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5f3a6136b14d872626437fb0

My hope is that this morning's update was NOT the quarterly Covid-19 testing update that has been promised, and rather that the quarterly update (including hard numbers and revenue figures) will come at the end of this month as it allows them to cover the full quarter (i.e. 1 July - 30 September). That is my hope.

Yes, great news., excellent deal. It won't move the share price (not much does), but will certainly add to the bottom line for H2 2020 revenue, which when updated to the market may start to see sentiment change.

Also interesting that after the initial 6 months they will explore the option of online exclusivity in the US for Slimbiome Medical. For me this indicates that they expect HiLife to deliver strong sales and quickly. Established retailer in a (very) large market with a ready-made loyal customer base. Online exclusivity in one of our largest markets is a prize not be given lightly.

Slimbiome Medical is on their virtual shelves as of this morning, selling at $29.99 for 30 sachets.

https://hilifevitamins.com/collections/popular-products/products/slimbiome-medical-060609990190

Agree with most posters this morning that this was a positive update.

It's great that we will be routinely processing 10k tests per month from the start of October (and as mentioned, that's expected to be £420k per month in revenue). But how much have we processed up until now? Today's update was forward-looking with regards to Covis-19 testing, which is always important for sentiment and demonstrates how big the opportunity is, but we also want an update on how many tests have been processed in Q3. This was my understanding of what was expected from the quarterly updates, the first of which is expected this month. Was this morning's update it?

Again, it's great that AR referenced the opportunity to expand Covid-19 testing capacity. LR said this will be done in 10k chunks. With time being of the essence, it would be good to know what the timescales are for scaling up capacity by 10k. Hopefully we'll find out more this afternoon.

Also with Dido Harding talking about the fact that private businesses, not the NHS, will be required to pay for the Moonshot 'rapid' tests, that hopefully leaves the door open for YGEN to get in on the act of providing lab-based testing services for the NHS. The Government still want/need to increase capacity of lab-based testing services, so surely will be looking for other local providers. We are ramping up at just the right time. 10k tests per month, in the grand scheme of things for the Government, is a drop in the ocean. Especially as the North West England (i.e. Manchester) is a hotspot for transmission at the moment.

It has been frustrating, but Novacyt has been doing this for many months, since the start of the pandemic really, so has been able to update the market with hard numbers on a regular basis since. Hopefully the YGEN quarterly updates, starting this month and covering progress since July, will be our first step along a similar path and drive the share price up accordingly.

Good spot :) Even sillier mistake considering i'd registered to attend just yesterday.

Thanks Steve, can't believe I've not heard that until now!

"500,000 over the next couple of months", which means if as expected the requirement for testing runs well into 2021, we could be talking a much larger number over the course of the next 6-12 months. I'm looking forward to the investor presentation on Monday even more so now! Maybe even an RNS in advance (tomorrow or Monday morning to set the scene).

I also agree with LR's strategy not to disrupt in anyway the NIPT business, especially now that we have 60% of the market to go at with the IONA NX test. But he did talk about increasing Covid-19 testing capacity in blocks of 10,000 (which is what i wanted to hear and means it must be feasible without disrupting NIPT), so fingers crossed we may be working towards 20,000 tests per month over the coming months, if not already. Again, this would likely add in the region of £420k per month to the revenue pot for every 10,000 block utilised.

Taken together, using a back of fag packet calculation, I don't think it's unreasonable to estimate the Covid-19 infectious diseases business could be generating several million in revenue in the first year.

Steve67... thanks, must have missed that point from LR. I might be mistaken but i don't think the latest broker report included these either? When/where did he say that? Any idea on the value of each of the 500,000 test kits to YGEN?

If we are not maxing-out our current Covid-19 testing capacity considering the current track and trace issues and test shortages in the UK I will be very concerned. Fully utilising our existing Covid-19 testing capacity will lead to a healthy increase in revenue above previous projections (estimated at £42 x 10,000 = £420k per month on top of what we already generate through NIPT and reproductive sales). I know our core business is NIPT, but if we really want to rapidly grow into a mature biotech we need to branch out into other areas.

Surely therefore there must be a short-term goal from the Board to increase our testing capacity further to take advantage of the unfortunate situation. We know that the need for Covid-19 testing isn't going away anytime soon and we know we have a test that offers very accurate results - so let's invest in extra capacity and really put our name on the map. Until another company comes forward with a properly validated LFT, our PCR test is one of the best on offer. And even afterwards, there will still be a role for PCR testing in the national testing effort. I know we started from a standing start, but Novacyt obviously haven't had any issues getting their test out there and they have certainly reaped the rewards.

When are we expecting the half-year results? 2019 half year results were released 28 August 2019, but with consideration for the change in fiscal year end (i.e. add one month), it would suggest we can expect results w/c Monday 28th Sept.

This update should deliver some good news as alluded to in the Proactive interview (that revenue for H1 2020 is greater than revenue for full-year 2019), plus *fingers crossed* a forward looking statement that H2 2020 revenues are likely to be greater than H1 2020 revenues, as per the normal pattern.

This share is definitely one for the patient.

I really wish they would stop using the word ‘modest’ in RNS deal announcements. It’s likely to lead to a less than modest share price performance.

Notable positives from the interview:

- H1 2020 revenue is greater than previous full year revenue (£0.74m);
-Sweetbiotix sounds to be a game-changer (low glycemic profile, categorised as fibres)
- Double digit royalties on the latest Sweetbiotix deal;
- Product development and commercialisation deadlines included in the Sweetbiotix deal (although no statement on what the deadline is);
- It sounded to me as though the deal only provides exclusivity to the US company for one type of sweet fibre, so leaves us open to do deals on other sweet fibres in our portfolio (i.e. "multiple shots at goal").

Hopefully further Sweetbiotix deals to follow...

Nevermind... i’ve re-read the RNS and Proactive article - it is annual.

This explains the relatively subdued reaction from the market.

Thanks Belgrano - how did the ADVFN poster clarify for certain?

So a modest (low) six figure payment every 12 months until product launch... that’s a bit underwhelming for a global exclusive deal with no timeline.