Member Info for jascott2510

Anybody want to hazard a guess at who the blue chip multinational from this morning's announcement might be?

A quick look at the Nikkei 225 (Japan's equivalent of the FTSE 100), the pharma/bio tech type companies listed are:

KYOWA HAKKO KIRIN CO., LTD.
TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD.
ASTELLAS PHARMA INC.
SUMITOMO DAINIPPON PHARMA CO., LTD.
SHIONOGI & CO., LTD.
CHUGAI PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD.
EISAI CO., LTD.
DAIICHI SANKYO CO., LTD.
OTSUKA HOLDINGS CO., LTD.

Although it might not be restricted to this shortlist. To be honest i'm not that familiar with many Japanese companies outside of car manufacturers or electronics.

We must just be very early to the party. I've been here for years, waiting for others to arrive with my party hat on, grazing on the nibbles!

I do sometimes wonder what kind of RNS would be required to ignite the market's interest in YGEN. The path is clearly signposted now and the £145m MCap for a company with these solid foundations and huge potential is, well, perplexing to say the least.

That was my first thought too. I presume this means partners that currently use the Flex software will need to start paying for it?

It only requires a few more customers/partners of a similar scale to take on the Flex software and we could be looking at several millions more in revenue annually. Revenue, again if i'm not mistaken, which wasn't factored into the latest broker forecasts.

Another positive update.

And that just shows how fickle the share price movements can be.

A credible partner like Dell you mean? Granted, we still need full details on what exactly their involvement is, but they are certainly a global OEM.

The first and greatest risk facing the Microtox BT is that the further testing at Aberdeen Uni falls short of what is required. Like I said yesterday, how do you think the share price will react if it clears that hurdle?

For those that see the Microtox BT as impractical, what other solutions do you think are going to come to the surface that will allow the economy to open up safely? Even a super-dooper LFT that produces a test result inside a few mins will suffer from the same practical challenges (i.e. potential for fraud, need to produce proof / health pass via QR code, roll out of kits to venues etc.).

And it's not as though the whole business hinges on the success of the Microtox BT, it is just a juicy bonus that might pay off big time.

A disappointing share price reaction considering the positive news this morning, but not completely unexpected as it wasn't the type of RNS to catch the attention of the AIM investor masses.

I agree Bakky, a little concerned that the Covid-19 testing numbers are what everybody is waiting on, in particular those short-term traders looking for an exit opportunity, and it may prove to be counterproductive to share price performance in the short term if they don't blow the doors off. I don't think we have many of those types left here, but it wouldn't surprise me if there's a 'sell on news' type reaction. However, if combined with solid 'new' news re: involvement in government-led testing ('moonshot') it would certainly grab some attention from the market.

Not to be too negative though, very happy with YGEN's progress and how things are shaping-up. Slow and steady...

Couldn't agree more Retireby40. It seems there are certainly a few posters with an agenda.

Here's my high-level pros and cons analysis:

Pros:

> £4m revenue (guidance) for 2020. This should certainly see us into profitability for H2 2020, if not for the full year. Bodes very well for the future and drastically reduces the likelihood of raising cash to keep the lights on.

> Short to medium term funding is in place (£3m facility plus £1m from warrants).

> Imminent merger with Modern Water to bring all business lines under one roof and leverage future opportunities by combining tech and IP.

> Prototype Covid-19 breathalyser undergoing further testing at Aberdeen Uni - results expected Q4 2020. Few regulatory hurdles to be cleared if as expected it is deemed a medical device. Imagine what would happen to the share price if these results come back and it is shown to detect virus to the required sensitivity and specificity. Personally, I am confident this will be the case as i'm a big fan of Avacta's affirmers. Self-administered test, instant results and a clear, practical end-to-end testing ecosystem which could be rolled out relatively quickly for mass public testing. I'm still gobsmacked that this wasn't more warmly received. What more could they do? Oh and a partnership with Dell still to be clarified. Clarifying their role in all of this might boost credibility a smidge.

> Waste water detection business seems to be building traction and is starting to deliver deals. Retrofitting existing units seems like low-hanging fruit and will generate cash in the short term, in addition to any further deals announced.

Cons:

> AGM presentation did lack professionalism. I think key messages were lost in the noise and the Covid-19 breathalyser should have been showcased separately (i.e. before) the AGM.

> CEO is a regular Twitter user. This is not necessarily a bad thing - it's good to see him engaging with investors online and answering questions where possible. However, the frustrations now being felt by shareholders come from the recent post-AGM drop. This was not only due to the poor AGM presentation, but mainly because the share was pumped up massively pre-AGM due to forward-marking the RNS on Twitter. I'm sure lessons have been learned from this.

> Assuming the Covid-19 breathalyser is a viable solution, there MAY be the need to raise funding to manufacture the testing components (microchips, affimers, breathalysers, scanning machines etc.). But the point is that this would ONLY be required where the Covid-19 breathalyser is a viable solution. Therefore any orders/deals done would DWARF any need to raise funds upfront, if at all.

My conclusion: the business should be turning profitable in the next 6 months, if not sooner, and with potentially transformational news in the next 3 months re: Covid-19 breathalyser and/or water detection, the £30m MCAP will soon have the company looking extremely undervalued.

I could see the government offering to cover the costs of the manufacturing switch to Covid-19 LFTs, buying everything these companies can produce and Avacta providing the special ingredient (and therefore earning royalties). It does seem like one way to find extra manufacturing capacity where there is none at present. We all know the 'several million' capacity signed-up so far isn't going to touch the sides.

In doing my research, i'm looking for any references as to whether the £4m 2020 revenue will see us break through to profitability - has anybody seen any info on whether this is the case or not?

We had admin expenses of £2.97m for FY 2019, but I would imagine this has increased for 2020 with all the activity.

Appreciate any input.

Yep, you would take a breath test only on the days you need to. That might be everyday for some (for example office workers commuting into major cities) but not all. Purchasing the breathalyser and microchips would just be another cost of doing business or going to work (like buying a train ticket, paying for parking etc.). I would like to think that many firms would subsidise the cost for their employees. But like GJB said, the breathalyser is a creative solution that would allow us to open the economy in a much safer way than we can at the moment.

As 13thmonkey said, any rapid test not administered by a professional is open to fraud. Avacta's LFT is very likely to face the same risk but nobody seems concerned over there. But testing that requires a professional (such as PCR) is not practical for the type of mass testing regime that is required. Therefore there will always be a risk of fraud in mass testing, but it's a risk worth taking (what's the alternative?) and society should do everything it can to stigmatise cheating the test in much the same way it does to those who drink and drive. Some people are just selfish, it will happen. But I believe the vast majority would use the test as intended and that would go a long way to achieving the aim of bringing the R value down below 1.

Exactly, there can't be a guarantee. Why would you want to do that? If you did, it would be fraudulemnt and potentially manslaughter in an extreme circumstance where others die as a result. Therefore it should be made (if it isn't already) illegal.

Imagine a scenario where you did 'cheat the system' because you desperately wanted to go somewhere, for example you went to a music venue (knowingly) with Covid-19 and infected others, who then go on to die - that would surely be something the police would want to investigate.

Integumen have put forward a great (but not perfect) solution and you can't cater for people who want to to put themselves and others at risk.

I agree, it is interesting that they haven't disclosed Dell's role in all this yet. This makes me think there is still much more to come from this - why else hold it back? I think there are a few possibilities, or a combination thereof:

1. Production of the microchips for the breathalyser
2. Provision of the secure blockchain technology to support the 24h health pass
3. Secure cloud hosting/storage services for the digital fingerprint of a positive covid result

In the recent Proactive interview (24 Sept) in response to the global OEM partner question GJB talks about the undisclosed 'global data integrations partner'. This therefore makes me think Dell will be producing the microchips (in large quantities) at the very least.

But I could imagine a scenario where offices install scanning devices, test all people entering, leaving those people free to roam for 24H with their 24H health pass. But still, I would expect most businesses to invest in scanning devices to cater for all scenarios. You can enter if you have a validated 24H pass from today, or if you pass the breathalyzer test using their scanner.

StarKnight, yes, but this is true only if the person has either (a) got their own scanning device at home , or (b) been to another venue that day which has already tested them with a scanner.

That's why I think the main model will be for businesses to buy scanners and test people on the door.

It will be very difficult for a better solution to be brought to market before Q1 2021. The government isn't going to come up with anything and any other solution would struggle with similar challenges re: practicality. Even a super-duper LFT that provides an accurate result in a few minutes (I hold AVCT too) will face the same problems in terms of fitting into the social infrastructure. The 24H health pass via a QR code is the best available solution it seems. So even if venues don't have one of the scanning machines, they could rely on your health pass QR code and scan your phone on the way into a venue (think bouncers doing this on the doors of nightclubs). Any LFT worth its salt would need a similar solution similar attached to it to work in the real world.

Look at airports now. For security reasons they scan and search everyone before you're allowed into the departures lounge. This scanning process would work in a very similar manner. People don't question being scanned (or thermally imaged) at an airport because they don't want to die. This is an extension of that thinking. The only difference is that the list of applicable testing venues would extend into many more industries.

My take is that it will most likely be for individual businesses to buy the 'scanners'. I don't suppose there is anything stopping a household buying a scanner if they really wanted to, but i'm not sure it would be necessary and is probably the most costly part of the equipment required. I imagine the main way it would work is for businesses (airlines, stadiums, theatres, hospitals, cruiseliners etc.) to buy scanners and then require clients (i.e. you and me) to bring our breathalyzer and a chip with us when attending an event. When you arrive you would take the test (in a few seconds) and if negative you would be granted entry. if positive you are advised to go home and isolate (and maybe get a full PCR test).

Therefore there are essentially three products to be sold:

1. Breathalyzer (to everyone via retail outlets, such as supermarkets or chemists?)
2. Chips (to everyone via retail outlets)
3. Scanners (to businesses mostly, probably directly from the company).

For me the key will be to get businesses to buy the scanners. If this happens and you want to fly overseas, or go to the theatre, or go on a cruise etc. and the business selling you the ticket states this test is a pre-requisite, you will buy the breathlyzer and a 6 pack of chips. You have to start somewhere, and this is the best hope we have to date.

The sensitivity and specificity of the breathalyser is/will be very similar to that of the Affimers (provided by Avacta). He therefore couldn't answer that question as the data hasn't yet been released to the market by Avacta or tested as part of the breathalyser device. But they must have conducted preliminary tests of the prototype (and Avacta will also know) and therefore both companies will have a good idea about what to expect. He did say, if you have virus particles in your breath, this device will register it. So pretty confident the S&S will be very high.

It will be available in Q1 2021. I think he stated that in both the Q&A and the Proactive interview.

I'm surprised at the drop after the AGM. The AGM presentation and style wasn't great, but the breathalyser device has lots of potential. GJB stated 100 million affimer units will be ordered. He wouldn't do that (and he definitely wouldn't state it openly) if he wasn't expecting orders of chips and units to process them in that magnitude. There must have been and continue to be lots of interest from businesses. Personally I don't think people have understood how this will work and the potential it offers to a number of industries in dire straits.

Yes, a very positive update with lots of detail and explanation.

H1 2020 revenue is pretty much bang on the same as the full-year 2019 revenue. I stick by my estimate at £2.0 - 2.5m for full year 2020 revenue, which aligns with the statement that all business lines are on track to hit profitability before end of the year.

And from here on in, each deal further enhances profitability. Opti has always had massive potential, but has been a slow burner to say the least. It's certainly heating up now and with a Nasdaq listing explicitly stated as an objective, Sweetbiotix deals coming to the fore and a growing presence in the US market across all products, the next 6 - 12 months will be exciting for shareholders.

We’ll have to agree to disagree Florida, I threw out £5 per test as a conservative estimate. It could be higher in my opinion.

Florida, see my post from earlier this morning (10.33). It's exactly this point I was trying to clear up.