Member Info for January2

Hi Pelle,
Hope you are good and well too !
Pelle, lol - At 50% you are talking about the "Full Herd"
I think the Herd begins with " A couple of Cows" at 20%.
Blimey at 50% you would have ruddy Cows everywhere !
I have 1 cow here at home that can start the UK herd Off !

Hi chilting,
Hope you are good and well !
We will have "Herd Immunity" here in the UK by Christmas. I have done the maths.
Herd Immunity, so I remember kicks-in when 20%+ of the population have been infected.
So 15-20k per day are now testing positive with covid19. For every 1 tested positive, I believe there are at least 5 who don't bother to get tested for a variety of reasons. Such as, Not that ill, they don't know they are infected, or they feel to ill to go to the test centre and just self isolate - to name a few. Can't booka test etc - Summary for every 1 tested positive there are 6 who actually have it ! (1 tested and 5 do not get tested )
That equates to 100k people per day who are actually going down with Covid19 with things as they are today. Therefore in 10 days 1 million people would have been infected. That's 3 million in the next month. By Christmas we will have 3 million for October, November and December - 9 million people plus those that have had coronavirus between March and October which must equate to a few million too ! 65 million population, Herd Immunity starts when 13 million have been infected.
BY year end the UK will have Herd Immunity - That is my Prediction.
2021 will be Great for Oil .

The stock market is "moved" by things that we know of . But things that we don't see coming move it more.
Which is why those projections on here of fcf 500m + are a miss. What is certain is that other unexpected things will happen in 2021. Therefore I would not want to bet that oil will "flat line" for another year or more - it won't !
The problem is simple. You can't predict the future, and the further your horizon then the more you are likely to be wrong. What we can say is that " Market Cycles" are true. The cycle for high oil prices WILL come around again, we just can't predict when ! Knowing how the market likes to surprise us, my bet is it will be sooner than we think. Even though today it may seem a few years away.
JAN

lol Spin,
Anyway what's this rule of six ???
We can "Trump" that rule.
He did ! Trump had a big garden party or should I say "Corona Party" on the White House lawns. We will do the same !
Forget Masks and Social Distancing , the cats out the bag now. I think the vaccine will be too late ! I now believe " Herd Immunity" will come before the vaccine. My 28 year old daughter tested positive at the weekend. She lives near Manchester. She only got tested because she is 11 weeks pregnant. Apparently for every 1 that's tested there are many that don't bother to get the tested. they just self isolate. Many don't know they have it. If it's 10 to 1 then there could easily be 150,000 people a day getting the virus. Herd Immunity will come before the vaccine, mark my words !

Target is $19 = 18p

I see Barclays have put out a new price target today for enquest of 18p - going in the right direction from where we are now !

You asked about fund raise.
I don't see it ! The share price is not in a good place to raise funds like 100m or so. You would need to double the shares in circulation to raise that sort of money, and thus dilute holders by "doubling down". AB has charity money invested here too, he would not want to weaken that surely ! Would be more likely to borrow any cash , or do a deal like he did before with BP. My thoughts are that we will not see any further share dilution because there are better options !

JAN

Gordon,
Thanks for asking about the 60p party. All holders are welcome.
Yes I have already got the paper plates, ballons and funny hats. We just need to pin-down the date. That's the problem at the moment.
I feel confident we will here some news on AB's shopping trips before the year is out !

Hi romaron,
Hope you are well,
Sounds good to me. I like the post , it makes a lot of sense .

All the best
JAN

Pippa,
One small problem -
Even at our current reduced demand levels, the world does not have enough oil left in the ground for it to be the major fuel/source for our economies for another 100 years !
I seem to recall reading 50-60 years then it's gone ! Even if they are a bit out, it's not going to last another century. So a solution has to be found somewhere.
Human beings perform best when they "have their backs to the wall " . I am sure something will be discovered/developed.
The combustion engine was revolutionary, as was the internet. What's happening with that "atom collider" where they accelerate atoms at tremendous speed to crash into each other producing massive energy ? The atom collider i think it was called ! Something NEW like this will sort out the problem, not windmills and Hydrogen !
Just my views
JAN

Pippa,
One small problem -
Even at our current reduced demand levels, the world does not have enough oil left in the ground for it to be the major fuel/source for our economies for another 100 years !
I seem to recall reading 50-60 years then it's gone ! Even if they are a bit out, it's not going to last another century. So a solution has to be found somewhere.
Human beings perform best when they "have their backs to the wall " . I am sure something will be discovered/developed.
The combustion engine was revolutionary, as was the internet. What's happening with that "atom collider" where they accelerate atoms at tremendous speed to crash into each other producing massive energy ? The atom collider i think it was called ! Something NEW like this will sort out the problem, not windmills and Hydrogen !
Just my views
JAN

Pippa,
One small problem -
Even at our current reduced demand levels, the world does not have enough oil left in the ground for it to be the major fuel/source for our economies for another 100 years !
I seem to recall reading 50-60 years then it's gone ! Even if they are a bit out, it's not going to last another century. So a solution has to be found somewhere.
Human beings perform best when they "have their backs to the wall " . I am sure something will be discovered/developed.
The combustion engine was revolutionary, as was the internet. What's happening with that "atom collider" where they accelerate atoms at tremendous speed to crash into each other producing massive energy ? The atom collider i think it was called ! Something NEW like this will sort out the problem, not windmills and Hydrogen !
Just my views

JAN

Nick,
I am not happy with my converstion here either !
Over the last few years I have converted £250,000 down to £100,000 at todays prices ! So i agree with you . Converstions don't work !
We need to see them "build it, and they will come" . Hopefully while I still walk this earth !
I never did ask romaron who "they are" ?

Just to add,
From memory those 2 hydrogen atoms are smaller than the 1 oxygen atom. Those little suckers just love sticking to Auntie Oxygen and they don't come off that easy. It takes a bit of electricity in your electrolysis to move the slippery suckers.
Where is the Electricity coming from ? How much energy is used to get what energy back ?
Keeping the liquid hydrogen cold costs, not to mention all that oil needed to make your safety products/systems.
Sounds great, but the deeper you go the more involved and costly it becomes, like my wife !!!!

Storage is one issue, another big problem is "stability". Hydrogen gas is highly explosive and is easily emitted from liquid hydrogen on this planet. Earth's temperature is not ideal for storage or stability. The cost of achieving both safely adds substantially too the cost of using hydrogen. It's not an easy nut to crack, otherwise it would have been achieved in the last 100 years since the Germans developed it as a fuel/energy product.
I'm sure in time it will be developed further but this is not going to happen for years.
My local Leisure centre has 2 electric car charging bays. I have never seen one car using it to charge up !
We would have all taken our profits here and had our 60p party well before we see hydrogen as our main fuel.

All the best, "Oily" JAN

Chilting, Spin and any other hydrogen junkies !

Let me guess, hydrogen is wonderful the answer to all our prayers !
Next you will be suggesting that we all start flying around in hot air ballons filled with hydrogen !
Yes lads, we have been here before. remember the Hindenburg Disaster ? You know the hot air ballon filled with hydrogen that blew up killing almost all on board.
Hydrogen was been talked about 100 years ago as the super fuel ! In the last 100 years it has not "ousted" oil why ? It's a "basrrrtard" to store ! Boom !

Been trying to move the old grey matter a little today, and I just keep coming back to the same conclussion ;

There are just to many options for some kind of "acquisition deal" out there at the moment , for AB not to come up with a deal with someone !
Therefore, I am expecting a deal to be announced before the year end ! Hopefully no up-front cash !

Lets wait for the Music to play !

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/270580/premier-oil-chrysaor-acquisition-spree-westwood/

Last part is interesting to hear his views on the sale of BP Andrew and Sheerwater. "With all the many assets for sale at present, it mite be hard for BP to shift Andrew and Sheerwater ! This plays into AB's hands surely ?

Well said romaron, a very good post !

+13 %
What a difference a day makes !