Financial Times.24 Apr 2020 16:53
Holders of bonds, rather than equity, are already in the ascendancy. While management could point to being “well within” financial covenants at the end of January, the assurance failed to mention that these are based on the ratio of free cash flow to debt service charges. Analysts at Barclays estimate that the AA’s net debt to adjusted cash profits ratio — a more conventional measure of indebtedness — was at 7.8, and rising.
Leverage pressures were already apparent before the current crisis began. In January, the AA was forced to swallow a 280 basis-point increase in coupon payments to refinance a portion of one tranche of bonds maturing in 2022. Analysts at Berenberg calculated this will add a further £9m in annual interest payments — equivalent to a £7.3m drop in free cash flow — on top of £10m in one-off transaction costs.
Since January, credit markets have become considerably rockier. And with a further £942m in bonds set to mature in 2022, that means the AA is facing the prospect of higher interest rates, which means more pressure on free cash flow. That starts with the refinancing of the group’s remaining subordinated “B-notes” debt, which Berenberg estimates could lead interest payments to rise by an extra £27m a year, at least.
In the near term, those actions should support cash flow. A review of the AA’s pension liabilities should save a further £10m a year. But such is the scale of the group’s debt position, analysts are starting to signal that a small downturn could be enough to wipe out shareholders.