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But this is the issue we have. Anyone in their right mind who is considering an investment in Angus will be put off by:
- The fact that Paul Forrest is selling 130m odd shares each quarter for the rest of the year
- ~230m warrant shares being dumped into the market any time soon (subject to the SP being favourable)
- 10% additional dilution by way of share options should the SP ever drag itself to 3p
Anyone who has carried out appropriate due diligence will appreciate that the SP will not be rising significantly any time soon and even if it did, it would be knocked straight back down again. Unless the BoD do something to directly address these problems, there will not be any significant amount of buying pressure to drive the SP up.
I wonder if Angus have even tried to negotiate a buy-back agreement with Forrest? Doubtful. If he's happy to keep dumping ~1.8 then assuming (or desperately hoping) the side-track is a success, they should have no issue with funds to do this. Not only would it send a positive message to the market, but would actually start to undo some of the damage caused by the numerous "accretive" issuing of shares.
On another note, the hugely unambitious target of 3p which will open the door to yet another 10% dilution by way of options is looking a long way away right now. The fact that the BoD have been unable to achieve the incredibly low bar they've set for themselves certainly doesn't promote any confidence or credibility. More and more snouts in the trough, not many apples to go round though, is there?
The situation here is really starting to stink. It's almost like the BoD (And Forrest) are acting deliberately to lower the share price. Why would they do this one may ask? I wouldn't be surprised if they're being "incentivised" by a third party with deep pockets in order to enact a takeover at a bargain basement price. All conjecture and imo etc.
The radio silence, the poorly worded RNS, the plummeting share price... Any BoD that actually gave a f**k would be acting accordingly but here we are. Leopards and spots and all that.
I'm not sure Mercuria have let us off anything at all. These accounts are only up to 30-09-2022. A placing worth £7m was announced on 19-12-2022 after Mercuria had evidently changed their mind about rolling the hedge. (see investor question from 31-12-2022 - "A month or two ago George was talking of dividends and buybacks and here we are before Christmas surprised with another raise?")
I would suggest that the current commodity swap schedule looks nothing like the one in the annual report sadly.
WG, I checked again using the data you eluded to and I got the same proportional percentages:
Sept - 17.2%
Oct - 10.4%
Nov - 18.0%
October appears to be an outlier from this VERY limited sample, maybe December's figures will shed some more light on this subject once they're published. If the average water cut remains relatively stable, then there's no immediate concern.
Source: https://imgur.com/a/YmD7XS4
The only difference between the values form the table I used today, and the chart I used yesterday is the representative units. There is no loss of detail or resolution, the values in the respective data sets are merely converted.
From the investor question response: "The sidetrack drilled before Christmas into the top of the reservoir encountered in January a very small fracture system which had not been captured by our seismic study. This would not have been an issue had we not been working in small bore, or so-called skinny drill pipe, as a consequence of laying 5.5? liner to secure the coal and marine band zone behind us."
The fracture system was not evident on the seismic study, therefore was unforeseen. The tooling they had on site was to suit their original strategy but as mentioned, they've had to change approach. I'm no expert but I wouldn't want every possible drill bit / whipstock / drill pipe / liner set combination on site. As we saw from the drone footage last week, the site is already very busy and suppliers certainly wouldn't send it out for free.
From the 28/10/2022 RNS:
" The Company may be able to advise success in the actual drilling activity after approximately 30 days but a further 10 days would be required to begin to have confidence as to likely production rates."
As per the infographic, the side-track spudded on the 11th November which is 28 days ago.....
I don't think the old cliché about weekends has ever been more appropriate
I think the earth is made out of cheese. All the mice that feast on the earth cheese fart out all the gas that comes out. At the centre of the earth is a big fondue which is where oil comes from. I think this because I read it on Facebook
Curiosity led me to find a maritime chart for the North Sea. You'd need to go north of Scotland to find anything deeper than 100m. Given that the near-vertical section of the drill is >2000m, unintentioally finding the sea is not a concern.
Considering the well site is about 5km from the shore line, something would need to have gone very wrong to accidentally hit the sea. That's if they're even drilling in that direction.
Formation water is a possibility but they're deliberately drilling across the top of the producing layer horizontally in an attempt to avoid the worst of it
Just found this site which is quite interesting for anyone curious about the technicalities of drilling onshore horizontal gas wells: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/png301/node/729
Yes it's worth more than Angus today, but with the injection of cash being free of the hedge would bring, I'm sure they would appreciate the rapid growth potential. I'm sure it's not escaped thier notice that the hedge is massively holding the company back in terms of near-term potential, but I agree, they probably couldn't care less.
That's why I said "trying to convince". It wouldn't be easy!
If I was George, I'd be trying to convince Mercuria to exchange a decent stake in the company for dropping the hedge. The company could grow much more quickly with available cash and longer term, Mercuria would still be quids in. The hedge will expire, but dividend payments will hopefully become regular and persistent. It would mean another chunky placing obviously but I could get on board if it was solely for that purpose.
Did George f**k off on holiday and forget to add "throw the market a measly bone or two" to anyone's job list?
I've been patient up until now but they're taking the pi55. So NOTHING of any significance has happened in the last 7 days? Not even an ambiguous Twitter post? Being an Angus deramper must be an easy gig. The company do 95% of their work for them!
HITS, with respect:
I despise a lot of things on here but frankly, I'm too busy getting on with my life to worry about it. The levels of ramp-tastic garbage as well as the bashing is comical. The fact that any of these individuals think their comments affect the share price in any way is laughable. I'm fairly sure the institutional traders don't give a flying funk what some faceless moron on LSE thinks so why waste you time?
If it gives you comfort to act as some white knight, saving the plebs from losing all their money, then that's up to you. "A fool and his money are soon parted" goes the saying so if they're not losing it here, it'll be somewhere else. If that genuinely is your motive for posting on here, I really think you could be spending your time in a more productive and healthy way.
I accept the risk here, AIM is like a casino and more unpredictable than a horse race. I'm invested at an acceptable level and assuming a total loss, I'd be a bit miffed but it's only money at the day. You can always earn more money, you never get time back, so I'd advise you to stop wasting yours here.
Whilst I appreciate there's yet another delay which is very frustrating, and the nay-sayers will be all over it like flies on sh*t, but I work in the integration and test environment and I know that when you bring a load of complex components together and try to switch them all on for the first time, issues occur. You can plan, procrastinate, pontificate and test in the factory until the cows come home, but issues still occur, and rectifying them is not always the work of a few minutes.
George may be making a rod for his own back every time he gives a timeline, I'm not excusing that, but for my money, the local council have created more of an issue by not allowing weekend work. 4 of the 12 days in July were wasted to keep the NIMBY tree huggers happy. This is why nothing ever gets done on time in this ridiculous land. The house builders around the corner from me can start loudly grinding concrete into dust at 8am on a Sunday morning, but Angus are not allowed to do a bit of wiring and test some valves. Ludicrous.
Anyway, I haven't come this far to only come this far, I'm not going to engage with the persistent negativity, I'll let the gas speak for itself. Like GL said, "it will either work or it won't" so pay your money, place your bets and appreciate that crying and whining all the time won't speed the process up at all
Good luck to all of us genuine investors
https://www.nationalgrid.com/gas-transmission/data-and-operations/quality
No need for BBcode either! *facepalm*
Thanks for the heads-up Tygra
Here it is then: [url]https://www.nationalgrid.com/gas-transmission/data-and-operations/quality[/url]
The moisture content, or relative humidity will have a direct impact on water dewpoint so that's why the desiccator will remove as much moisture as possible.