Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Confirmation of production back to ~2,500boepd (near term) will be key and psychologically important - then production upside from workovers, and of course the CL test and accelerated dev plans should results exceed expectations.
I have a good feeling about Campo Limite and that locality generally. The mood music has been consistently positive.
...and a blow a crater the size of a two football fields no doubt. If the TA profile were so good why then was the first priority drill effectively a dud? Where was public presentation of the seismic results non existent- answers on a PC.
Please remove rose-tinted specs, it’s “get real” time.
Happy Xmas team
Q. Something in that TA 3D seismic that just does not quite float ECHO’s boat?Further analysis from the Campo Limite drill that is “exciting” the team, perhaps exceeding expectations...? We shall see, but there’s been a very definite shift in the narrative since June.
Santa Cruz has a much more predictable profile you can’t argue with much learnt from ops over the past 12-18 months.
Of course it may have been a forced-hand move but I have NO problem with it. SCS has clear potential and nothing close to the risk profile of TA. Further this is a move the bondholders clearly support and those engaged in the placing happy to buy into. Worth pondering.
I’m going to be contrarian to some on this BB and say I LOVE this move, and am buying into it.
Cash, cash, cash... rinse repeat
Assuming Limite flows nicely and the Springhill reservoir is good quality I think 2p would be a comfortable target for next year.
I’d expect a further ops and strategy update in the coming days as they will want to set out plans and expectations for 2021, also they should be rattling through these work overs.
Somm- hold your horses, I wonder what the TA 3D seismic actually showed?! I for one was surprised that there wasn’t any fanfare after the event with bright amplitudes as expected confirming the Gaffney assessment. We just don’t know. What if that next TA drill with what 30pc cos were to dust. That’s not how to grow a business back and CERTAINLY NOT what those holding the debt would support. If you want to negotiate favourable debt repayment terms get your business, business-like first. Then, and only then open-up some higher risk Great Plains exploration activity.
Much more will have been shared with those participating in these rounds than us, clearly the upside and potential was compelling and apparent from SCS which is a substantial and under-developed acreage with a MUCH lower risk profile. I think the results from the recent work overs have surprised everyone in a very good way.
What I expect to hear from ECHO in the coming weeks is a clear roadmap towards and beyond 3k boepd next year. That’s not fairytale numbers of multi TCF, it’s really compelling cash generation - and for many years to come.
The high risk stuff can wait, now is NOT the time.
Jags
Apparent that SCS offers low risk production and reserves upside, and that the pick-up in post COVID production just wasn’t sufficient to provide a safe basis on which to proceed at such short notice. The right call, but disappointing all the same.
One thing we can now safely say is this is a much lower risk and rebalanced business.
;) now, now let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but I can see 2p broken with ease should Campo Limite be commercial. The water contact footnote in that initial drill RNS is intriguing. Expectations, just for once, may be - just may be - exceeded. I certainly think we’re long overdue a change in fortunes..! but as the saying goes, you have to ‘create your luck’, and aren’t we just ‘lucky’ to have someone of MH’s calibrate at the helm.
We’ve a very long way to go.
Not only is ECHO once again throwing off cash it’s increasing both production and the reserves asset base through an active intervention programme currently underway - then there’s the Limite test result, which I fancy will seriously concentrate minds as it opens up the prolific and low risk (conventional) Springhill vicinity.
GLA
Now there’s a question Bob -
Who knows, but I very much doubt Campo Limite alone will push the SP towards 4p, and actually that’s not really something we should concern ourselves with. What’s much more interesting is the diverse and substantial upside now evident from all the various moving parts across SCS. It may be relatively small but the upside from this terroir looks better by the day, but with success at Limite and the potential in its ‘environs’ we shift gears. The Springhill looks prolific to me here, and I think the test results from that drill can’t come soon enough. That would provide more than a foundation to ‘party’ meaningfully in Western TA. If things work out there later next year, we’ll see fireworks -but not before. Meanwhile SCS should be priming ECHO’s coffers v nicely.
This could -emphasise COULD- be the turnaround story of the new year. Hence why I’m here. I’ll be back when we’re over 2p, not before ;o) aka soon-ish (ABW)
GLA
Patently obvious ECHO have an astute and competent new leadership team, as others have noted, but it is the solid current and future production potential of Santa Cruz Sur that has my attention. What motivated the new micro LNG capability is a case in point: combining both neatly.
I down averaged on the recent debt restructuring and fund raise news. My holding here is now significant. I have a target of 4.5p (conservative) but if the east of Tapi Aike offers up a fraction of Gaffney CAs assessment, this is academic.
I expect to hear much more about SCS production and cash flow gen in the NY.
Naturally to be successful in business you need a solid strategy but an ability to execute on the same. Our CEO has had quite a baptism and has more than proved his metal. He seems incredibly focused.
The business always had ‘potential’ (if not luck!) but I’m much happier about the Exec and primacy now being given to profit, financial rigour and developing both production and cash flows from these new, low risk assets.
Ceteris Paribus, this Co could yet ascend Phoenix-like. Assuming commodity mkts, post COVID remain broadly as they are, coffers will begin to swell nicely ;o)
GLA
Ditto. Has to be a prime candidate. SP needs to kick on - and it may with FY presentations in the City. Exec have delivered on their promises. Expect they will want to expand their oncology partnership in the near future.
There’s been pretty relentless buying off the bid in recent weeks as a result this mini re-rate has developed nicely but I am expecting further volatility esp as uncertainty over 2H will be ‘played’ by shorts. Gonna be a wild ride, just take care not to chase the next couple of sessions too aggressively.
80s more likely than a return to the 50s IMO.
Agree with earlier, the mood has changed, near-future demand ramp for advanced compound semis is compelling and unstoppable. IQE customer base continues to diversify, apple iPhone sales beating expectations by some margin.
With 5G adoption accelerating globally, this does not strike me as a business at the mature end of its development cycle!
My thinking too. Re shorters Have seen some AT shenanigans in the last few weeks but there is a big buyer behind the market that’s been driving the action. It may be relatively small exposure but could prove challenging to close out without driving the SP considerably higher esp given the early recovery stage in the cycle. Few that have down averaged will be willing to release shares on the cheap.
Agree they’re extremely vulnerable right now. The depressed SP is exactly where an acquirer would want it. Don’t think a successful offer would need to be over £2 either!
Spotted those chunky trades earlier today. I wonder.
Anyone else sense the beginning of a re-rate here... given what's now in the public domain (iPhone 11s flying off the shelves and new Android quals success) could be tough shaking it back down to the low 50s again. Drip, drip, drip? Nah, not now.
Then I should sell-up and scamper off - their opportunity for their tech is just one giant ruse ;o)
...well I (and a handful of global smartphone OEMs) might disagree with that well-worn short seller assessment.
Aye, we’re all doomed Scampi. :) though I beg to differ.. why so? Because fundamentally going into next year IQE has never had better customer profile in terms of scale/broad mass market growth prospects AND diversity, shorts know it and PIs know it. It’s all been well flagged. IMO These dips present great buying or down averaging opportunities.