Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
Had to happen eventually - bit niffy mind
Agree with these sentiments. Small consolation of course, given the current SP weakness but value will ‘out’ in due course. But near term there are clear geopolitical issues (Iran) which could utterly jack-knife global oil markets. Having worked in the Gulf region for many years I know the Iranian culture, these are proud, smart people, who should not be underestimated. Things are coming to a head, and you have to go back to the Iran /Iraq war for a time when the Middle East was so unstable. Worst of all the Saudis are emboldened by Trump’s support and are spoiling for a scrap with Teheran.”
...and when was it ever not ‘thus’?
AMER have a good track record with the vast majority of indigenous groups they work with and were able to open Platanillo DURING the v worst days of the conflict. Things are always challenging here but to compare the situation now with then would not be accurate. A convenient excuse for GTE to make for under delivery phaps...? Now, where have we heard that before! Thankfully not in recent AMER updates.
The OBA provides a secure, reliable and clean evac route for AMER’s crude. Hence why so valuable to AMER and other Put operators in the future.
Colonel, only a few short years ago pipelines were being blown-up and trucks torched. Those days are gone but...there’s a transition process $$$ ;o)
The Govt will no doubt have to increase military presence in Put as operational activity ramps up and get a grip on these groups - should this continue - but needs to tread carefully as area was FARC controlled. Coca production in Put Basin and surrounds is on the rise again, with control in hands of ex FARC strongmen who have leverage over local indigenous.
The last thing these illicit coca kings/producers want is heat coming down from Govt because of such side-show ‘social’ issues. They have money to make and to do so need people they can exploit, who keep their heads down.
It’s proper complex but the indigenous need to know they have a seat at the table.
Of course in OXY, AMER have the ideal partner with many years local, frontier operating experience.
More likely than not Indico and Mariposa are part of a connected play-fairway. Reserve estimates are just that.
High reservoir pressure, relentless production flow rates and stable/zero OWC etc strongly support this. Add another 50-100ft to Indico and it’s a belter of a find. Indico also up-dip from Mariposa remember ;o)
Looks as if it will hit the magic ~5k bopd post Plat22 side track. Who would have thought that 4-6 months ago!?
Evac via OBA and that’s a lot of lolly with Brent around $60. Given shenanigans in the Gulf can’t see much downside risk from here, just a heck of a lot of upside!! Bottom line workovers look like a challenging job v well done..
Indico appraisals - mouthwatering. Am sure the team will be chomping at the bit; there’s a lot of ground to prove up between Indico and Mariposa - surely they’ll be looking for another rig should the first appraisal be successful - pressure and lack of OWC point to something special.
10k bopd production by calendar year end very achievable. Now do the math!
Utterly false valuation.
Solid production, cracking asset base, onshore, exit infrastructure, tier 1 partners fully onboard, strong cash position...etc The only fly in the ointment execution/expedition/managing expectations
I sense in recent RNSs things have changed (as have others).
Current SP/MCAP is judging the business v harshly indeed. Putting it mildly.
Sol-1 discovery far more positive than initial comment and SP reaction and fits a new pattern. It may be thanks to Nathan, but the Exec suddenly seem to be getting smarter, even cute, with their IR and comms.
Sol would certainly have been logging HCs when they released their Ops update. No ref to HCs in that meant it was either a duster or positive - either way noteworthy in its own right.
Clearly it’s a shallower seam to Indico but the LS3 is carrying pay and we know in this corner of CPO5 it’s a cracking sand. Flow rates will be interesting with reservoir potential both updip and down if no OWC....which I’m betting on being the case.
No question recent comms have been well pitched and reassuring- they match the business like operational progress nos evident, esp the workovers at Plat which have been v successful.
As we go into these Indico appraisals, I’d agree with others....the mood music changes. Success with the first appraisal will likely trigger a 2nd rig, but with approx 80% cos on the first appraisal it may already be on order. Tenders on the ONGC website tell the story.
It may have taken a while for ONGC to reach flying speed but the flywheel will take some stopping. In short we’re back on track and on many fronts. 2020 is gonna be a belter, and should the security situation further deteriorates in the ME....let’s just say Stifel will need to reassess that 35p target.
Too many for too long have been talking oil down and looking eagerly for the slightest suggestion of demand weakness (and yet demand remains stubbornly robust).
Nothing like enough attention has been given to massive geopolitical oil supply risk (forget the usual suspects and basket cases - Libya/Venezuela, be in no doubt, after ydays attacks the game has completely changed.
Only question is how things escalate in the Gulf, as they surely will and how high POO goes in the coming months, the gloves are off / markets asleep at the wheel / something very nasty is unfolding right before their eyes.
Upshot: Colombia - a safe and secure future source for oil. Well who would have thought it?!!! If anything close to the above unfolds Colombian supplies/assets will command a absolute premium.
No ones having my AMER shares on the cheap, not with with that little lot going on!
Drone attack on major Saudi pipeline infrastructure today a graphic illustration oil market is vulnerable to even the most minor of outages. ME / Persian Gulf is already a tinder box and now with US carrier strike group charging about like a mad thing - receiving orders from a mad thing! I fear this will not end well...
AMER could take a leaf out of their book! Encouraged, as am sure others are by the urgency they are now showing.
Indico is too deep a structure to be isolated. Find the trap, find the oil - a lot of oil.
Once these guys get momentum we’re off to the races. I fancy a little luck could go an awful long way...
Meanwhile back at the AGM, imo Giles will do well to hold his position- there’s a reason the SP way down here. Someone with clout wants his hide...body language from the AGM top table will tell it all.
Expect a gradual recovery in SP towards 15p in days leading up to x2 drill results - much happier they’re back to targeting clear closures / structures in CPO5. Good.
POO will remain strong for the foreseeable as there is structural and growing geopolitical supply risk - turmoil in Libya and Venezuela + possible disruption to seaborne evacuation from Persian Gulf through Hormuz bottleneck. ME is a more unstable than at any time since 2nd Gulf War.
Iranian Mullahs know stoking a high POO would give Trump more than a political headache and would rock Western economies. More a question of where, when and how Iran choose to retaliate. Not if.
Colonel, you may well be right but that opportunistic window is narrow. Will OXY join in..? I think highly likely, but an eventual sub 30p t/o isn’t remotely onerous! Very sad but if the mgt don’t snap out of their collective torpor its 9/4 on “Good Night Vienna” it’s been nice to know you... The BOD perhaps anticipating a hostile may well explain the AGM venue change.
I’m not sure there will be pools of blood ‘let’ at the AGM but a couple of nasty upper cuts thrown and noses put out of alignment. Rightly so. There may even be a few stinging combinations, which will leave no one in any doubt where delivery and performance levels have been indefensibly inadequate. Given their remuneration the entire mgt can’t feel terribly proud of themselves, they strike me as unspectacular and unenthusiastic. Nothing like enough urgency, energy and drive!
If not removed, I’d expect a few to acknowledge they are now on formal notice. That may be the kick-up-the-ar*e needed. I’m not sure there’s been an irrecoverable loss of trust, but we’re moving uncomfortably (for some) in that direction. That said, a handful of IIs carry a lot of influence and muscle here, and someone may have stuffed a horseshoe into their glove - you never know. Expect the unexpected.
OK, yes it’s down but poo is well up and oil will be required for many, many decades to come - we need to learn to use it and burn it in a more green and efficiently ways as frankly alternatives just don’t stack up, VW Audi boss already questioning the econ credibility and environment positives of EVs/battery tech which is likely to stoke a whole new bunch of future environmental issues.
Management need to pull their collective finger out and start promising what they can deliver. It’s not that hard. Just do it! The potential rewards and riches that are there to be unlocked by this company are vast and their cash position and strategic assets remarkably robust.
Unfortunately, the people there do not appear to be fully ‘clutched-in’ so guess what happens next..?
IMO. V likely a battle royal (short and sharp) between owners and management that ends in either a fire-sale or complete mgt clear out. Small wonder London was chosen as the AGM venue!!
2019 will be both a fascinating and important year for AMER. Happy to hold and add as and when I can.
Given the scale of opportunity in the block I consider it a perfectly realistic expectation. ONGC will be as keen as AMER to now expedite in line with recent tenders.
1) will add to cash position and fund drill prog in Put
2) see this as a Govt endorsement for AMER
3) local indigenous didn’t want the pipeline upsetting Putumayo river ‘spirits’ (aka not happy with their compensation and heat from authorities as they continue to grow and illicitly sell Coca (which the vast majority of farmers still do)
4) signals future throughput increases, Govt keen to open Putumayo Basin. Timing of OXY farm-in not ‘accidental’ ;o)
There will be more news with the AGM. I expect the announcement of a 2H19 multi-rig campaign in CPO5 for starters.
There are certainly no simple solutions to the perpetual cycle of population growth, natural ‘check’ and/or climate change - just ask the dinosaurs...but in all seriousness, reducing emissions and finding cleaner ways of burning fuels (e.g. IMO 2020) and cleaner energy generally is not only common sense it’s been the trend since the early C20th- even in the late 50s early 60s London’s air was still a toxic soup with literally hundreds of thousands of homes burning coal!
Renewable sources of energy of course tend to be intermittent and I think only right to question their greener-than-green claims. Certainly the economic and environmental credentials of the current storage/battery technology leaves a lot to be desired - I believe carbon capture will play an important role in achieving something closer to a ‘future balance’ though what exactly that means and how it will be safely measured and maintained is another question altogether, esp when one thinks of the catastrophic emissions from a volcano or forest fire - some things are more easily controlled than others...
I think it’s fair to say the world has been warming since the last ice age. Of course in the history of the planet, those extreme events have come and gone countless times before...and so they will continue with or without us (dinosaurs)!
Am convinced base Platanillo production levels 3-4k originally advised was deliberately cautious as always risk with any well interventions. We can do little other than to assume daily throughput is now benefiting from the w/o completions as shared in the last ops update. Plat Infill well spud news within a fortnight IMO and announcing OBA throughput at 4-5k. If production is solid from this untapped zone at Pad3N, we could see 4-5k pb (perhaps upwards) comfortably sustained from Plat this year and well into next.
As AMER conclude this period of workovers t’will indeed be interesting to see where the numbers settle - esp as throughput has a tendency to be below overall Plat production - still think the recent guidance of 3-4k pd is deliberately conservative and will certainly exclude the infill, which I’d expect to spud in the next couple of weeks.
Agree with previous - but if success with the further step-out updip at Sol, which like Aguila appears to be much more conventional and defined closure (unlike Calao) then the brakes will be released and most likely they’ll go multi rig. But still a chance before as Indico is too big a structure to be an isolated-one-off.... which itself has much more to give in production and reserves. As we progress risk will be increasingly diluted and production will surge