Member Info for Jager15

ILU (used to) rail HMC (ie post WCP treatment), not sand (pre WCP treatment). There is a huge difference in cost. The only reasonable option will be to dismantle the equipment an relocate it. I don't think that is a huge issue....ILU relocated one of their WCP's from the US to Australia, so for KMR to move it up the road should be a piece of cake.

Facevalue, I think your assumptions for ilmenite and primary zircon are fine. Rutile however should be much closer to $1,000, though its not a big contributor for KMR. In the Credit Suisse report on ILU I mentioned previously, they published the following 3 year assumptions : Assumptions - 1H2018 - 2H2018 - 1H2019 - 2H2019 - 1H2020 - 2H2020 Zircon price (premium) (US$/t) - $1,270 - $1,380 - $1,300 - $1,300 - $1,300 - $1,300 Rutile price (US$/t) - $910 - $910 - $950 - $950 - $1,000 - $1,000 Ilmenite price (US$/t) - $170 - $180 - $200 - $200 - $200 - $200 What's interesting is they forecast the zircon price to fall in 2019. However that's not what I'm hearing, with the likelihood of a further $200/tn increase in H2 this year and further increases next year as the market continues to tighten with the Sibelco mine in Australia and the the Cristal mine in Brazil (net 60kt of zircon) expected to close and little new production expected before 2020 (ILU's Cataby, Sheffield, Strandline etc). If you factored in a $1,500 zircon price and $200 ilmenite price for 2019, then maybe you start to see some serious cash being generated by KMR. However, I think there is too much uncertainty and a lack of clarity on prices to see that factored into the share price yet.

Credit Suisse are forecasting a Net Profit before Tax for ILU of $450m this year....and that's with very conservative pricing assumptions. They could come back to make another bid for KMR with their loose change....but would anyone sell ?

I guess it all comes down to what constitutes an "offer". There were several "offers" (or proposals made), but they were non-binding and subject to due diligence : Eg, 30 April 2015 "Iluka has provided Kenmare with a revised, non-binding proposal relating to a potential acquisition of Kenmare by Iluka through an all-************** offer. " "Under the terms of the Proposal, Kenmare shareholders would be entitled to receive 0.016 new Iluka shares for each Kenmare share. On the basis of Iluka�s share price of A$8.16 as of 30 April 2015, the terms of the Proposal represent an indicative offer price of 6.8 pence per Kenmare share or �0.094 per Kenmare share. They value the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Kenmare at �189 million (or �262 million, US$294 million or A$363 million). This would result in Kenmare shareholders holding 9.6% of the enlarged entity." Hence, the terms were quite specific and more than just a "discussion". http://www.iluka.com/docs/default-source/asx-releases/potential-acquisition-of-kenmare-resources-plc-(30-apr-2015)

Caps, lets remember ILU is up ~20% since February, which sort of blows the theory that KMR's issues are macro based. And while were at it, lets also remember ILU's offer was equity not cash. ILU is up 43% from the offer price, so taking their offer would have given participation in this growth. Effectively, the $600m offer then would have returned $858m today, with more upside to come.

With the share price being down 30% from where it was both 6 and 12 months ago, how does a 25% T/O premium help anyone here ? Worst case scenario is M&G and SGRF scoop up the rest of the institutions and long suffering retail investors are forced to accept a compulsory acquisition. Fantastic outcome !

"Will you ever stop pumping this P.O.S." ROFLMAO !

Down under ILU had a 4% jump today based on an article in the local financial press indicating the ForceMajeure at Rio is not over as reported in Industrial Minerals and elsewhere : "Rio confirmed on Thursday that operations at Richards Bay, which produces about 25 per cent of titanium feedstock, 33 per cent of the world's zircon output and 25 per cent of the world's high purity pig iron, were shut down in late March and are yet to be restarted." http://www.afr.com/business/mining/rio-tinto-mineral-sands-operation-shut-by-protests-20180412-h0yojr However my sources tell me Rio themselves are telling customers the operation has re-started, so I'm sure what the real story is. This probably explains the 3% jump in the KMR price today.

Skid, I've seen one spec that is only 45 - 50% ZrO2 and ~5% TiO2, and another than is 55 - 60% ZrO2 and ~3% TiO2. However i can't say for sure if these are representative of current production.

Skid, the secondary grade is like a low grade concentrate that requires further processing/upgrading in China.Hence, it sells for a substantial discount much lower than standard grade due to its low ZrO2 content. BF, I would hope Kenmare's Premium is closer to $1,500 (RIO & TRO) than $1,400 (ILU) in today's market. There is also strong demand from China for concentrate, so the secondary should be better than $420. Early May we should start to hear rumours of Q3 prices - ILU are holding prices flat, but further increases are expected from others,so the weighted avg for the year should improve. .

As noted previously by others, stocks always seem to hover around 200kt and this may be the 'normal' level of inventory needed to run the business bearing in mind shipment scheduling and timing. Eg End 2017 - 202,000 tonnes End 2016 - 192,300 tonnes End 2015 - 237,300 tonnes End 2014 - 219,500 tonnes I wouldn't be banking too much on additional revenue from the sale of stock.

How can it be a good quarter ? Ilmenite production was 45kt less (-18%) than the same period in 2017. Zircon production was similarly 1,500mt less (-9%) than the same period last year. I know sales will be impacted less due to the carryover of stock, but it still doesn't help instill confidence from the general market :( .

.....for the 3rd time. Melior announced today that it has completed and executed the previously announced US$5 million loan agreement and 600,000 tonne, six-year ilmenite off-take agreement with Hainan Wensheng, a leading Chinese producer of zircon, ilmenite and rutile products. The Agreements will enable Melior to restart operations at its Goondicum mine in Queensland, Australia and capitalize on the current strong market fundamentals. Melior will begin reconstruction at Goondicum immediately when it has drawn down the first funding tranche and is targeting commencement of commissioning by November 2018 with production ramping up thereafter. https://www.minenportal.de/artikel.php?sid=230672&lang=en

The only logic I can see BF is that during 2017, ILU had to book losses of $3.3m associated with the Metalysis investment (and the same the year before). If they felt it was going to be more than 10 years before the technology could be commercialised, then 10 years of losses at $3m a year would effectively wipe out their $30m investment. There is an interesting looking article recently published on the Mining Journal website "Iluka, Metalysis and the zero-value question" : "Even if it is an accounting decision to comply with rules governing investments, there is something unsettling about writing down the value of an asset to zero. This is what one of the biggest shareholders has done with its stake in the metal-technology business Metalysis." The rest of the article is for subscribers only if anyone has access. http://www.mining-journal.com/capital-markets/news/1332358/iluka-metalysis-and-the-zero-value-question

"This week Metalysis announced further funding of �12m ($17m) to move forward to commercial production under the Generation 4 (�Gen4�) scale expansion project. The funding comes from existing shareholders Woodford Investment Management, Draper Esprit PLC, ETF Partners and Interogo Treasury. Hercules Capital, Inc. (NYSE: HTGC), of California, U.S. are a new investor in Metalysis." What's interesting is ILU didn't contribute financially to the expansion project (which is not really surprising after they wrote down their Metalysis investment last year). I wonder why they aren't supporting it ?

BF, your delusion is truly amazing. People here are getting excited at the possibility of a $100m EBITDA this year while ILU is on track for a $500m EBITDA. Hell, ILU made as much profit as KMR last year just from it's iron ore royalties without any min sands contributions. Sure, ILU may decline in 10 years time, but my investing time frame is 10 months not 10 years. Frankly, comparisons between ILU and KMR are largely meaningless.....one is primarily a zircon play and one is primarily an ilmenite play. If you like the outlook for min sands, you should have both in your portfolio for different reasons, its not a case of either/or.

The BOD may be actively trying to get the ex-lenders to sell to increase liquidity, but if the peak near term profitability (price x volume) isn't going to occur until 2019, I don't see the ex-lenders selling for 18 months. In the meantime, will the share price break �2.00.....it seems headed that way ?

To highlight the point about liquidity, Credit Suisse advised the ASX today they've picked up 5% of ILU. I doubt they could get 5% of KMR even if they wanted to. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180319/pdf/43skjr1f4613mn.pdf

Supaman, prices did indeed peak much higher in 2011/12 (spot prices over $350/tn were achieved in some cases), but no one if forecasting a repeat of that environment because there was so much demand destruction that took the industry 2-3 years to recover. Keep in mind that when ilmenite was +$300/tn, it was because rutile was +$2,000 and **** was +$1,000/tn, but today we're at half those levels.

'Er, the feedstock climate isn't buoyant, it's just literally climbing out of the toilet' - Disagree with this, at this point I would suggest we are at least halfway through the upward cycle particularly on pricing. Supply tightness may be sustained lomger but on pricing, there isn't more tha 50% of the increase upwards left to go...." With ilmenite, TZMI's base case for 2018 - 2022 sulphate ilmenite prices are +/- $205/tn FOB so there is potentially very little upside. Any further upside is likely to be limited to zircon and rutile. I think is also one of the reasons the share price in languishing....if KMR can't make money at these prices they'll never make money.