Member Info for JackieDab

Be careful the market doesn't turn. Anyone with decent profit i would probably take it.

Tend to agree - i've reduced my holding down by around 20% today - and will probably sell another 20% before 5th July - or if it goes north of £6 tomorrow or monday!

No @Strike123 - deadline has been agreed to be extended for 9 days (to 5pm, 5th July) as EJ are going to partially open books to allow limited due diligence.

"£8 would still be cheap, looking back, this share price currently is well under half of what it was in Dec 31st 2019, £14.24. Looking back even further share price operated over £10.00 since 2013 consistently. This share price is only going one way. Happy Holding Everyone. Chill and watch. LOL"

Be aware that there was a rights issue in 2021 though which fundamentally altered the number of shares on the market. It brought in £1.2bn to offset Covid losses, but the rights issue will have changed what the equivalent share price is today. RI was 31 new for every 47 existing, so any shareprice before the rights issue really needs to be discounted by around 65%

This is like a gift...i thought the opportunity to buy at less than £4 was long gone...but i'm just picking up more. All with a 2+ time horizon.

"Wise move there Eightyeight88 IMO - Oil plunging, dis-inflation well underway, unemployment rising, GDP stagnant - possibly even falling already. Price war for airliners looks inevitable. £4 a share soon here for EZJ - DYOR, all my opinion."

How to say you know nothing about the travel sector, without saying you know nothing about the travel sector......... i very much appreciate dissenting voices on chat boards ...but peddling - oil prices up = bad and oil prices down = bad is just stupid. Blocked.

Not too bothered by small drops - fundamentally EZY will make around £680-£700m this year...even at a ridiculous x4.0 PE multiplier it means the company will be valued at £2.8bn - still a shareprice around 4.50 - anything lower than that and they become a legitimate takeover target - or there needs to be a fundamental shift in macro conditions to get to this point. Its baffling how a company emerging strongly from the pandemic can be valued so badly....but c'est la vie.

Read it a few weeks ago... definitely worth the read!!

"Between 475-495 by friday..... :D"

Bang on the money with my totally ill-informed and pointless post :D

On a more serious note - any thoughts on what the shareprice would do if easyJet missed or hit its profit forecasts £50m either way?

Between 475-495 by friday..... :D

"All IAG has to do is pull the trigger on a ticket price war and the budget carriers will find their customers flock towards BA for the better service"

This shows a MASSIVE misunderstanding of the airline market... if IAG pull the trigger on a price war - it will be on specific routes.... and the only impacts will be where easyJet go directly Head-to-Head. Something like 40% of easyJet flights are Europe-Europe - so it won't even touch these. There is around 5% route crossover with IAG - so thinking a price war (with what funding?) is even a thing is slightly laughable. There will be a price war on a few H2h routes max.... and why would they want to slit their own throats?

"It should be priced around £4 max but investors bound to want too much, ultimately I'm sure the bidder will pull out - IMO"

Really?? - £4 would value the company at around £3bn - when the profit this year will likely be £670m-£700m - and a holidays division growing at 25-30% YoY

I'm not sure what macro conditions would have to get worse in order to drive the price down further... consistently over the last 15 years its been proven that UK public will never sacrifice their holidays - oil price shocks have been ridden through on a number of occasions...this is now just one person blindly wanting something to be true despite all evidence to the contrary. we may see £4 at some point in the next 6-9 months - but if we did it would be a short-term shock - we're much, much more likely to see £6.

Sorry, posted in a rush with limited explanation

Essentially just a blunt attempt to investigate "seasonality" in the share price (having been an investor for nearly 10 years - had a simple hypothesis about autumn/winter being +ve). I just extracted month-start and month-end share price for every month from 2001 - and then summarised it. A negative number shows that if you total ALL of that months data (2001->2024) then easyjet Share price dropped on average, a +ve number showed that the shareprice gained on average. It does NOT mean that its guaranteed that shareprice will rise in October...but historically Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan have ALL been positive on average - but the rest of the year has been poor. So no surprise to see the share price bumping along.. through the summer with all of the negative news about ATC strikes etc. and maybe a rise as EOY results come into view.

Jan +529.23

Feb -147.24

March -544.15

April +28.61

May -280.55

June -1045.02

July -88.73

August -55.59

Sept -274.29

Oct +616.63

Nov +661.58

Dec +593.76

"You can bet on it. Oct-Dec quarter is the best for airlines. GLA."

So true. Data below since 2001. Table formatted awfully... but Oct-Jan is when ALL of the advances are made historically....some years buck the trend, but on average these four months way outperform the rest of the year.

Row Labels Sum of Month Growth

1 529.23

2 -147.24

3 -544.15

4 28.61

5 -280.55

6 -1045.02

7 -88.73

8 -55.59

9 -274.29

10 616.63

11 661.58

12 593.76

Grand Total -5.76 -12.47

So results are due 25th November - assuming a bad outturn against current forecast (being negative)

easyJet hit £650m PBT (vs £703m predicted) with EJ Holidays beating forecast and a solid forward booking profile for next year - how would you all value the company. Bear in mind £650m is up from £452m in FY24.

Assuming a relatively low 6.5 multiplier - £650m earnings = £4.2bn valuation which is substantially above where current shareprice is... with a constantly growing Holidays business... is this too basic a calculation?

"more planes, flying similar volumes of ppl" - would suggest that load factors are down

"jam packed and stressful travel" - would suggest load factors are up

" eternally rising ticket prices" - would suggest that there has been inflation.... gosh... yes everything costs a bit more than it did 30 years ago.

"demonstrated by the demand having levelled out, possibly even trimming" - easyJet passenger numbers up year on year on year?

Share price is muted...think we all agree and are frustrated by what is a successful business, but in a cyclical industry - so its just time that is missing

Happy with contrarian messaging...but this is just scaremongering. There was no disruption and any of the major airports that easyJet fly from. At least get basic facts right

Utterly bonkers. EZY operating on fine margins. ticket price itself does not even cover costs.... the baggage / ancillary sales is needed just to turn a very slim profit. Giving two "free" bags away means increasing the flight cost for everyone. But also means that EZY wont actually know how much baggage is going to be on board and therefore have to protect safety by carrying more fuel than necessary.

So an environmental catastrophe encouraging people to take more than they need... wont be the budget airlines that lose out - as yield management systems will be altered to cope with the new reality - all because some utter, utter fools think the world was better in the 1970s.

So enters the summer - i'm not sure EZY will do much over the next 10 weeks - political instability could drive things lower as oil prices spike (despite hedging). But likelihood is that we'll see another summer of dramatic news stories of strikes and airport chaos that will outweigh the positive trading / balance sheet - and then see a sharp correction as we head towards full-year results and the realisation that £700m is and always was a valid target...climbs up through the winter as losses are tightened again and then starts wobbling again in April.

Long term hold.

Whilst it does feel like there is some positive momentum going into summer season, its worth noting that easyJet historically sees its share price drift in (calendar year) Q2/Q3. Since early 2000 if you average out the gains / losses per month nearly ALL gains are in Q4 and into January with June being traditionally the worst month for share price movements. Whilst there are always exceptions to this across the annual trends (i.e. 2003 and 2019 saw decent uplifts in June, its not usually a great month. Fingers x'd its different this time.

I've spent some time pondering this thought - and concluded - H1 results announced in May - very rarely tell a positive story (as its traditionally a loss making half with a focus on how critical H2 is and all of the risks to performance.....then throughout the summer we see stories of airport chaos, flight disruptions and other disasters....only to come out the other side realising that its impacted 1-2% of bookings at most and the full year results bring significant upside (which drives prices up through the winter). Keep to see if anyone else has thoughts?

Jan 529.23

Feb -147.24

Mar -544.15

Apr 28.61

May -280.55

Jun -1045.02

July -88.73

Aug -55.59

Sept -274.29

Oct 616.63

Nov 661.58

Dev 593.76

Is that EURO or GBP?