Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It looks pretty decent to me, especially as a long-term play.
As several people have correctly posited, paying a 'large' dividend would be a poor move from a political perspective. Whilst we could discuss all day the merits/demerits of buybacks, the 'payout' is above expectations - i.e. divs plus buyback.
I also think this will end in the blue once the dust has settled.
Finally, let's not forget the massive discount to TNAV.
Mr Upton bought another 220,000 shares yesterday, taking the total to nearly 330,000 in the last week.
On the one hand, he has to show confidence in the company; however, he's not a fool - so he must have a good reason to invest as much as he has.
Gobbledegook.
I don't get it either.
I didn't know the UK government conjured-up the virus. It seems like an odd strategy to me. Presumably they got together with the other governments of the world, who all did the same thing?
You live and you learn.
Utter drivel!!!!!
Have you checked the TNAV recently? The market CAP of the business is still far below the asset value.
For me, at least, there is no obvious reason to either buy or sell. On the one hand, there are clearly some challenges in the near/mid term; however, the TNAV of the company is still considerably more than the market cap.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again - the current low levels of lending are a concern. Running down your loan book is a real problem.
Hi Unvrkw
Yup, that was me.
I understand the elation today, but it needs to be tempered with some long-term reticence.
That said, now that the collection rate is near-as-dammit the same as pre-COVID, it opens the door to start increasing lending (and perhaps dropping their standards at bit!).
Once the lending rate really picks up, then I think we can start thinking seriously about £1.20-1.50. Until such time, I think £1.00-1.10 is the upper limit to what can reasonably be expected; although, sometimes the market can be VERY forward looking - so perhaps we'll sail straight past that target. What do I know!?
Anyhow, a good day for us holders!
One obvious note of caution with this RNS (and ever since lending dropped) is that they are eating into their receivables portfolio. Whilst it's a statement of the obvious: if you've got decent cash flow when you're not lending much, it's because you're running down your loan book. That can't go on forever.
I will feel much more comfortable when the pre-covid lending percentage is up at 80%+.
Either the report was different or the expectations were. I expect both.
I assume you've read the report?
https://uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/ipf-5.75-07-apr-2021
April 21 bond now at 95!
The timing of the Polish tax rebate does at least explain the delay in the monthly update.
Looking good for more rises, assuming the business is vaguely profitable at these lower lending levels.
I wouldn't be remotely surprised if IPF signalled the resumption of divs in next month's update, albeit at a lower level (perhaps 40-50%).
Working out the EPS for the next year or two is problematic, to say the least..
Perhaps 5-10p per share this year, and 10-15p the next?
p/e of 8, based on previous years?
SP this year of 40-80p
SP the following year of 80-120p
Modest dividend reinstatement next year of 3-5p??
That's about as well as I can do!
You pays your money, and all that sort of thing.
Ragnar.
A sound approach. I'm often amazed at the SP of some companies who have horrific tangible asset values . I can only assume the people don't look at the NTA value and instead are seduced by intangible nonsense like Goodwill provisions.
I also didn't intend on having IPF as a core asset; however, since I bought a couple of weeks ago it's gone from being just under 3% of my portfolio to now being around 4.5% - and seems intent on being more prominent still.
Like most people, I've had a few shockers in my time - so I might just let this one run. It's in my ISA, so perhaps I'll just forget about it for a few years.
Anyhow, good luck with your investment.
Cheers.
I also note Stuart Sinclair buying 87,000 shares at £0.57 yesterday.
All very positive signs.
Ragnar.
It's good to read an intelligent and reasoned post, rather than people say 'the price SHOULD be this' or 'it's nailed on' or 'let's go boys' etc.
One thing I've been watching is the IPF2 bond for December 2023. The price has now recovered to around 85% of its pre-Covid level. Admittedly, at its low point it did have a running yield of around 15%; however, the disconnect between the IPF share price and the IPF2 bond price is startling.
Clearly, people view these things differently - and the share price is probably more prone to sentiment, but it does imply that either one is too low or the other is too high. My feeling is that the IPF share price is to low. I don't think it takes too much of a leap of faith to imagine the SP above £1.
Regards.