Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Could also be discussing licensing in other states where Corepath aren't approved.
Potentially a lot going on.
I dont think they are just sat there twiddling thumbs.
A note on higher volume testing, I know we said it in telegram group, it may be that the accuracy is slightly compromised. If we are 75-85% accurate as opposed to 95% in early stages, that is still phenomenal. Not saying that's what it is, I don't know but it's something I'd perhaps expect due to the environment change of the test.
I think if they didn't put put the odd tweet, people would ask where are they?
The odd tweet does no harm. I don't see it being like the begging bowl lifestyle cos that then pump out misleading RNS to then place off strength.
We know that isn't the case with pay and options here. I'm pretty sure that like the rest of us, they want to see the product out there in its best possible format and then see the share price move to make the most of those options.
China has saw a surge of money leaving the country.
Remember, it is not poxy firms over there we are dealing with. It's Bosch and Sinopharm. The pricing too is what would keep the tech authentic on top of the risk of much larger entities continuing to walk. They cannot risk that.
Time sensitive - I agree but market shares aren't always based on first mover advantage. Usually who you know beats what you know.
Number of tests again is a market share issue. In bio tech valuations are revs x 10 plus pipeline considered. A small slice of the markets in the US and China are hundreds of millions per year.
We can only speculate on this board what can or cannot come. I don't think the company would take IPO x 4. It's far too low. What we may see could be royalty deals amended for licensing.
I wouldn't take a 100 mil mcap on what could be repeat tests throughout a patients journey.
My own musings:
China 3-4 million lung cancer diagnosis per year. Let's say we only get a slice of the tests. To even diagnose 3 million you are sampling 30 million patients. Likely more.
If we test just 5 million, that's 50 million per year based off what we know.
US, again you'd be screening 2-6 million per year. 30 million are the risk category. So let's go low. 2 million. Test at $250 per go again going low as $450 has been touted.
15 percent royalty is what we currently know. Going low that's 75 million.
So low end, that's 125 million. Just off the two countries. Not the EU, not the UK, not down under or else where in Asia.
It all depends on manufacture, scale and take up. But to be happy with 100mil. Nope.
I appreciate this is back of the envelope and speculation but I've put these numbers here to try and get people to wrap their heads around the potential.
It's not that the share can't hold a gain but whoever held the shares that have been sold.
They don't look like typical PI trades however...
Drawdown is inevitable as either side can use it as and when. It's money on the table for both.
Once revenue comes in at a suitable level, would we expect any kind of raise? I wouldn't...
We should be talking of licensing instead. This prevents the need for anything like that. The IP does it's business then.
$100 mil would be disappointing.
If the numbers are a relatively small in terms of market share for testing this barely scratches annual revs.
For biotech you need to look at revs x 10.
I wouldn't accept anything less and would encourage a vote against if this ever happened.
The question would always be price.
I'll keep saying quids. Multiple. Not pennies.
But I believe even without M&A they still stand to earn off this as and when it goes live. Lots of parties involved all stand to do well from this.
It would appear we have a party or parties accumulating looking at the last few sessions.
The deal in China is funded by Bosch and Sinopharm... I feel confident on that one.
As always, my advice is set your goals. Where you see the market for diagnostics and where we fit off assumed numbers that you can derive from the potential market place we are entering.
This is why my numbers are high and I don't think in pennies. A very small slice of the market is worth hundreds of millions per year in revenues.
Everyone will have a different timescale too. Personally I don't think years from when the first trial is done. I believe governments need to be seen to be upping their game, especially as there appears to be an upwards trend of cancer diagnosis from recent years. We can see this in the US with the potential mandating of tests in two states. Others may follow or insurers may incentivise etc.
For obvious reasons we are not told when trials commence.
The trial will be retrospective and fairly small. It's not like bringing a drug to market.
What's probably more important and I'd expect a work in progress is finalising procedures for use along with outlining limitations etc (the usual legal stuff).
Remember, we are using a accredited laboratory as a partner in Corepath. This helps speed things up.