Member Info for Ivyspivey

Thoth I read every post on here so whether yours have been deleted or not(PS I have never reported anyone in my life) I will know closely your history.
You always thought the outlook here was poor but based on you could not see Iclaprim competing with generic s and high proportion of IVDUs with ABSSSI.I disagreed which is fair enough and like you hate trying to restrict what people say.
If you or any other posters claiming that Approval was very unlikely due to safety concerns before the CRL was issued then I would quite happily say Well done you were much better than me at predicting the likely outcome here but I can’t recall any without the benefit of hindsight.
Of course there was the odd reference to the Arpida trials but again no one predicted with accuracy that despite the changes made and based on all the available evidence that the FDA were likely to issue a CRL over liver toxicity.
My history is there for all to see and yes I was always confident in Approval as anyone would be with a big investment here but you show me where I have misled people and I usually made an attempt to say repeatedly it was my decision only and purely my personal thoughts.
Unlike one of your posts at end of April and quite happy to post if necessary which to me is a clear ramp on SAR saying I e is the a major shift in SP by end of May.
Well you were right but it was in the wrong direction which is the main reason I bought some.
Always good to have balanced discussion which we mainly have on here and try and stay polite but if you falsely accuse me of something I will respond.
ATzb

Hi they already have the HABP (Inspire trial) with Linezolid as a comparator and GL did confirm they would need a comparator and efficacy data and use 80mg I/v all of which is covered by Inspire.
They have chosen CRO not Covance and that is why I as interested in the GL response of great question to Kevin.

Thoth you are well within your limits to come on here and say I told you so but your arguments were all about the commercial viability of Iclaprim and not whether it was likely to get approved or not.
We can all wait for news then comment like you have done.
You have accused me of being paid by the AMP lender and Dr Maccers of not being a Dr but again a paid “ ramper.
Well Dr M can speak for himself but he is a genuine Dr not that makes him any better at picking a bio stock.
You only have to listen to the Conference call to find out who I am and my history so should not prove difficult for such a great researcher as yourself.
The difference between you and me is I am invested here and have been since the start whereas you choose to post on a board where you have absolutely no interest in here but choose to impart your words of wisdom to drive the SP even further down.
Whereas me who actually have bought some SAR shares lately and dont post there whilst you are uber confident despite the fact the SP is at an all time low and Sierra which is so important to SAR has had a 75% fall in recent times.
To me that is real ramping telling everyone what a great investment it is when everyone else is selling.

Finn right to be cautious but solvency declaration a real positive and we will watch to see how the liquidation process pans out in next week or so and think that will give us a few clues.

Pyro used to always say no one fights over an empty box and who spends millions of dollars in legal fees over a $2m debt.
We can only guess that it is all about a bigger picture but as always we can only speculate about the motives of FRR and how this will end up but risking going to jail is a hell of a game if chicken if you have not got the where with all.

I could be wrong but I think the declaration of solvency is you would have be able to pay the full ORR debt with interest $30m.
That is why this is so crucial.

Sheltie,
Nabriva had a CRL issued against their urinary tract AB in early May and are very similar to MTFB.It was to do with one of the contract manufacturing facilities so should be readily overcome.
This is a different scenario from here but they certainly made comment about the FDA shutdown effecting the time the FDA had to review the NDA.Something that MTFB have been very quiet on.

If anyone listens to the Conf Call I recall the last question think from Kevin was about whether a HABP trial would be satisfactory to generating the extra data required by the FDA.
I think GL responded by saying great question.
If I have got that right it may be telling based on other conversations I have had with them in past.

Not saying it will be easy but that does tie in with previous comments about proceeding with HABP in conjunction with a commercial partner.
That was before the CRL but if this is the route that covers this base then MTFB will have had discussions already.
This option would have to be agreed by FDA but since their concern is a safety issue and they want a comparator(Linezolid in case of HABP)/want efficacy data and fixed 80mg i/v then would seem logical to Apprive.

Thanks for response and hope you and Mrs Sheltie are surviving OK.

Biggest factor on here imo in recent days has been the loss of trust in the BOD amongst many PIs.This effects sentiment and I think the funding of the extra trial will probably come from an institutional raise/ commercial partner/ possible charitable funding like BARDA as I can’t see an open offer being successful in the current timeline.
It makes sense to take form of a HABP trial which is already prepared in terms of comparator and efficacy parameters(Inspire).

I was told at AGM that all bases were covered so although my confidence in BOD has been lowered since then at these low prices I have decided to let it all ride in the hope that Option 3 which is the one we did not want but MTFB must have been pretty much expecting is truly covered.

It will take a lot of time which fortunately I can afford to wait out and I wish that GL was not do deferential to the FDA and be more up front with SH.

Morning JB/Sheltie et al.
Yes 2 sides to every argument and of course individuals all have different risk profiles/financial situation/see things in shades of grey rather than black or white.
Like all LTH I am sat at a hefty loss and probably am very aware of some of the personal stories and distress behind these losses and if course many others suffer these elsewhere.
There is a lot of anger including from me about how we ended up here and imo there are several particular aspects.
The prime one is me as I alone made the decision to invest here but based on a heck of a lot of research and diligence and anyone who simply cuts and pastes past articles and says it was doomed to fail from the start is disingenuous.
If it was so obvious why did Aviva/SL/Invesco/M&G/SG invest collectively 10s of millions of pounds over the years.
These would carry out the necessary DD far in excess of most PIs.
Also why did FDA/MTFB Agree the Revive protocol simply to later say it requires more data when to all intents and purposes they were successful.
I am annoyed at MTFB for appearing not having a Plan B after the CRL/ for not making the market more aware of the nature of the liver toxicity concerns and not showing more empathy with the SH who have taken all the risk and suffered the most pain.
The appearance of certain negative posters is understandable and we should never seek to get personal or abusive and of course the LTH in here know each persons history.
As Sheltie says he has always been critical of GL and has been proved correct much more than myself in my recent judgement.
Yesterday we lost one of our dogs and if you are not a pet lover it may not mean that much but it certainly was a much bigger reason for me having a bad day yesterday rather than anything to do with events here.
So anyway GLA

Thanks Taffy.

Nothing on Cayman Court lists fir next week

https://www.judicial.ky/wp-content/uploads/courts/grand-court/GrandCourtList10thJune2019(1).pdf

Hi ISA Investor
The one about why did they not extend the follow up on those patients with elevated AST/ALT levels as part of Revive phase 3 protocol.I also asked a supplementary one about Hercules but the line was very bad it was difficult to hear clearly.
Apologies for quality of the line but I was in an area of poor reception.

Morning.As I was asked a direct question I will respond by saying no I was not impressed by his performance and in his response to my question.

Soyo not gone anywhere.Not sold any and even asked a question on the Conference Call.
No point in going over much of the ground today and it is obvious that today’s news was hugely disappointing and the criticism of the BOD is well made but some of the comments made by certain hindsight posters claiming this is going bust are imo way off the mark.By the logic some are applying 80% of Companys on AIM are worthless.
It is clear that the pathway forward is likely to be a long one and potentially a costly one but as Imo there is little to gain by selling at this stage then I will hold for another one or two years.
Of course the LTH are not happy and have decided to move on or stick with this and have valid criticism as to how we have arrived to where we are now.
We each have an individual choice and mine is to stick.
Always happy to engage in balanced debate but until we get more news which may take a while then too much venting of spleens in order to let the fully understandable anger out at the moment so nothing to be gained from posting in the coming weeks.
Anyway will refrain from offering any views for a while and GL to all in here and elsewhere

Only if it is a bungalow

Coronation Street so Peter Barlow and Carla Connor.
Tsbs- show me the window and I will jump out lol

See you got in first lol

Yes Bugsy
It refers to snakes and in particular the one eyed trouser snake

Hi Farquar
I know they have been preparing these pathways since the CRL was released so they have had 3.5 months so plenty of time.
They just need minutes to confirm which pathway they need to take.These ways forward will include how much they need to resubmit NDA and how the “ commercial partners” will interact with process

No worries Spike.
We have a mixture of folk with low and high averages but think I speak for several LTH in that we really want to see a clear pathway to Approval.
Obviously we want the journey to be as short as possible with minimal dilution but after the carnage on 14th Feb think many will settle for a delayed but secure outcome and claw their losses back in due course

Afternoon,
Spike- hope you get a nice windfall to spend on your new wife.
If there are large sells and SP has not moved it is likely to be AMP and it is the lender that is deciding not the shareholder.
They have enough cash to see them through decision and they will decide how much to raise and how once they have official minutes so they know the exact pathway forward.
They will have plans for each eventuality but any rumours of placing already are nonsense as they won’t do this until after the minutes are announced to the market

Morning
Hi Aidan.Yes he rose through the ranks at Merck to run 2 separate global divisions each doing over $1bn pa.
I met him when he was a Vet and worked same HO.
Bloody hope he is a better CEO than a Vet lol but he is in good Company another Vet became Head of Glaxo and a ex Tennis Player did pretty well.
I am more interested in where we end up rather than where we start