Member Info for itsawrap

All my comments are based on statements n the October presentation

"exclusive option over a 90% interest in the onshore Colle Santo"

"potential to generate an estimated €11-12m of post-tax free cash flow per annum"

- so only 90% of €11-12m due to LNe? Will the 10% owner be paying 10% of capex?

" LNEnergy Management estimate, at 9 mmcf/d sales gas and €45/MWh"

- gas below Euro45 for the last 9 months so October presentation gives false "potential"

"€16m capex to first gas, to be debt funded" + "LNEnergy will seek to secure €30m in debt financing to fund exercise of option to purchase Colle Santo gas field and development capex to achieve first gas"

- therefore option to cost Euro14m ? Raising Euro30m through debt finance (no mention of equity finance or farm-out) seems very ambitious for a tiny company which recently needed a £150k top-up from RBD.

"€66m estimated total capex with €16m capex to first gas; project to then be self-financing"

- logically to be self-financing LNe will be spending a lot of the Euro11-12m pa profit

- RBD may not see a dividend for years!

- LNe is a private limited company, currently there is no liquid market for their shares

- if LNe achieve all that is promised I guess they could float on AIM?

"The Board facilitates direct communication with shareholders through the TIMELY release of regulatory news, via a regulatory information service, which can be accessed through various channels, including the London Stock Exchange

website and the Company’s website"...DB talks the talk but waddles the walk

Heid said on the ujo thread that Bramhill had been very rude to her

...Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned!

From the Interims 28/09/23

Further to the receipt of initial gross consideration of £10m (c. £3.2m net to Reabold) in November 2022, the payment of the contingent consideration arising from the sale of Corallian to Shell in 2022 will be staged as follows:

A single payment of £22m (£9.5m net to Reabold) will be made, assuming the development and production consent for the Victory gas field is secured from the North Sea Transition Authority, on or before FRIDAY 1st December 2023.

If consent has not been granted by this date, then Shell will have the option to

either: i) pay £12m (£5.1m net to Reabold), with the remaining £10.0 million (£4.4m net to Reabold) being paid at a later consent date; or ii) offer to transfer-back the Victory licence to the current Corallian shareholders for £1 consideration.

imo - it is highly unlikely the NSTA will issue a decision this week unless they have given Shell/RBD a 30/11 deadline which is not how they appear to operate. It is not clear when Shell would pay the £5.1m, the Interims are deliberately opaque.

...a comment like that is below the belt

"LNEnergy Management estimate, at 9 mmcf/d sales gas and €45/MWh" - RBD presentation

fyi gas price has been sub Euro45 for most of this year - so another reason to be cautious wrt the Euro12m pa claim

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

If by some miracle WN is drilled in H1 and is commercial, they will be looking to sell it. Hopefully they will have the good sense to expedite planning applications for GTW and/or GTG, selling without planning in place would be daft.

Colle Santo is promising Euro11m-12m pa, but LNe only has an option for 90% so actually E. 10m-11m pa

...plus RBD is an 18% shareholder not a JV partner so their options would be to sell shares in an unlisted company or wait for dividends which could take years. A further possibility could be LNe listing on AIM once the gas is flowing.

Where will the sp be? ...hopefully up!

08.11.23 RNS - "The well is now on continuous 24-hour production and is expected to continue to clean up over the course of the coming days. Once stabilised production is achieved a further announcement will be made."

"days" now 2 weeks, it would be good to have an update

If LNe fails to secure the permits, they'll be left with a worthless option, a little cash and 811m Reabold shares which they will surely dump in due course. Reabold will own 18% of sweet fanny adams as any money left in the kitty will be swallowed up by "admin"

I would argue that sentiment is heavily influenced by timely & accurate newsflow - Bramhill definitely doesnt do timely and sometimes doesnt do accurate!

The sp is on the backfoot because he has condoned Egdon's ridiculous time-lines on countless occasions.

As I have said before, he needs to grow a pair and tell Egdon "not this time mate, you know that timeline is a crock"

"this will generate a revenue of €1 million per month of post-tax free cash flow to Reabold"

- LNe would own 90% so surely only 90% of the Euro 11-12m ?

- RBD is a shareholder not a JV partner so income is dependent on dividends which may not be forthcoming for several years, although RBD could sell some LNe shares but that may be tricky as LNe is not listed

HTTps://www.reaboldrequisition.com/wp-content/uploads/reabold-requisition-deck-v6.pdf

The requisitioning shareholders have the ability to bring in new capital to fund a range of exciting asset purchases by leveraging our significant investor network;

– We have identified a range of attractive, production assets;

– All proposed deals will be structured to ensure they are non-dilutive to existing shareholders;

Kamran's presentation says "...have the ability to bring in new capital to fund a range of exciting asset purchases"

- so why haven't KS and his buddies formed their own company???

So LNenergy need a £150k top up to keep the lights on? what happened to the £1m cash handed over since 9th May?

28.09.23 "Commencement of a share buyback programme in April 2023 for a maximum amount of £750,000 as part of the proposed £4.0 million return to shareholders announced via RNS on 3 October 2022"

not £4.5m as far as I know - the £4m includes the (barely used) buy-back commitment

Those who had the courage to buy circa 0.09 are nicely up - where will we be a month from now, 0.30p perhaps?

Near term catalysts in the pipeline

- bpd data for Wressle

- Shell cash for RBD first week of December (or not) which facilitates WN

- Bacon Energy update

- Wressle CPR

- restart buy-backs?

- Biscathorpe update

(not including Kedd as delayed until H1)

Reabold's presentation says - "LNEnergy will seek to secure €30m in debt financing to fund exercise of option to purchase Colle Santo gas field and development capex to achieve first gas"

LNe has one asset on the balance sheet, a $500k investment in an option agreement - no subsidiaries so must be with a 3rd party

Does anyone know who owns Colle Santo and whether or not they will contribute 10% of the capex costs? thx.

Yup, it's all about the Shell money now. if they receive it, they will make lots of promises of jam tomorrow - returning cash to shareholders, expediting WN, etc, the sp will rebound based on the cash injection and the promise of drilling WN in H1. imo a vote to oust them will be unsuccessful in this case.

What's more interesting is this , will Kamran still want to take over if no Shell money is forthcoming???

Imo the Shell payment is NOT "nailed on" but is quite likely

Reabold Interims 28.09.23

A single payment of £22.0 million (£9.5 million net to Reabold) will be made, assuming the development and production consent for the Victory gas field is secured from the North Sea Transition Authority, on or before 1 December 2023. If consent has not been granted by this date, then Shell will have the option to either: i) pay £12.0 million (£5.1 million net to Reabold), with the remaining £10.0 million (£4.4 million net to Reabold) being paid at a later consent date; or ii) offer to transfer-back the Victory licence to the current Corallian shareholders for £1 consideration.