RE: Best report so far on the judgement.30 Mar 2023 08:24
The Kurdish official close to the matter said the crisis was accelerating long-stalled efforts to pass a version of the legislation.
The law “will reform the oil and gas sector throughout the country but until then the KRG will be keen to resume oil flows through Turkey and the KRG is expecting the oil flow to resume within the current week”. the official said.
His remarks echo a statement from Iraq’s Ministry of Oil saying both sides would “discuss the mechanism of exporting Iraqi oil through Turkey’s Ceyhan port with the concerned entities in the Kurdistan region and Turkish authorities”.
According to Kirk Sowell, who runs the Utica Risk consultancy focused on Iraqi politics, a new deal could involve resumption of significant payments to the KRG — provided oil prices remain elevated and even in the absence of a new oil law.
Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani has tried to build cordial ties with the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), which dominates the region’s oil industry from its base in Erbil, and the Sulaymaniyah-based Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.
The outreach is despite pushback from allies within his largely Iran-aligned coalition, the Co-Ordination Framework, the dominant bloc in parliament, some of whom are strongly opposed to the KDP.
“The Sudani-KRG deal is incorporated into the budget," Mr Sowell said. "It creates what is called a unified account for all KRG revenue and requires the KRG to export 400,000 bpd through Somo minimum and also submit customs duties to this account.
“When Sudani and others say that this resolves all problems between Baghdad and Erbil, that is only true if there is compliance,” he added, referring to past failed agreements between the two sides.
“The whole pipeline issue will go away if the KRG complies, because they'll be exporting through Somo and not independently. The problem is that the KRG has massive debts, including payments to oil companies it has to make for its independent oil industry to function.”
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