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Not that great accually production locally is shocking considering everyone else has ramped up !!
Expect a 10% drop today .
Until that pipeline opens gkp will fluctuate between 90p and 110p .
Going to be a painful day here I'm afraid.
Selling because there is an update tomorrow and we know what happens on a gkp update !!
10% gets wiped off whatever the news is.
I wouldn't be surprised to see 90s tomorrow or Thursday sorry infact I know it will be in 90s this week.
Update tomorrow!! So what do we expect local sales will be ??
Hopefully more than 21kbopd otherwise the market will hammer GKP . I will say 28kbopd and that won't be good enough.
I hope I'm wrong and i hope they are doing 40kbopd but just can't see it personally.
Who's selling today before the update??? Probably a good chance you will be able to buy back 10% less than today if you do.
AIMHO
The longer the delays better for iraq !! They will have to cut 400kbopd when the Kurds come online again .
Iraq starving kurdistan with the budget as they give them their monthly money's due .
Delay delay suits them.
Here comes the consistent red days now !!
That meeting come from nothing as per expected even the market new .
Anyone selling out before gkp next update could be a 10% to make on that day when it drops into the 90s.
They are probably discussing the biscuits for the Christmas meeting !!
Every month will be the same upto Xmas with nothing resolved.
Unless some serious bribery occurs then we might actually get some decision makers .
The whole ME is rottern to the core while the people struggle to survive.
The Oil and Gas Law remains a contentious issue in Iraq, with talks of preparing a new version amid indications of disagreements on its passage, given the differing opinions within the Coordination Framework.
Top rampers saying £100 a share £50 or even low ball £25 !!
As the old saying goes if it's to good to be true 99.999% of the time it is .
So gkp is based on them odds where investors think returns here will be 25 x .
In this reality that just not happen.
So let's get in the real world and we all know gkp will be sold for £3 max anymore is a brucey bonus
Also why is DNO hitting yearly lows week after week and Genel struggling to stay in the 70s !!
We know what will happen to Gkp after the next update don't we.
A 10% drop on the update even if its 40kbopd local sales then a constant drip down for another 5 or days.
If someone can tell my any different I'm listening.
Or even 6 months the time they decide because they will another committee to decide !!
It's all delaying tactics by Iraq the squash kurdistan into oblivion.
Surely you all can see now. Nearly 10 months closed and no nearer to a resolution??
Red day anyone? Would you bet against it as that short has no intention of closing yet .
Going red as predicted and a few were saying a big rise after the weekends news !!
Do they ever learn ??
A few more days for Mr Market to mark it down before the next rubbish out kurdistan and iraq .
90s incoming
The Market doesn't believe a word of it !!
Trust know one on here history tells you that.
15 years and counting of tripe posted by rampers .
Who are wrong all the time.
Eventually gkp will get bought out but for £25 or even £5 .
Max sell out will be £3 at best
The market will decide later if this talk has any substance!!
I will probably bet another red day and 90s this week before any rise near the 130s .
Remember the market doesn't believe what comes out of Iraq and kurdistan because they are all thieves and liars full of broken promises. Good luck though
$20 a barrel is that all GKP get for all their production .
So at 40kbopd nett to gkp that's only $300m a year.
Capex at say $200m per annum that leaves around $100m in FCF .
Is it really worth all that risk for a poxy 100m a year ??
And iraq get $60 a barrel for zero risk why would anyone invest 1p into them crap terms .
Can someone tell me any difference because it's intriguing to know what this deal is exactly??
Iraq can afford to lose $1b a month if it ruins kurdistan collapse kurdistan economy.
As for iraq loding $1m on penalties to Turkey that is nothing because Turkey owe $1.5b to iraq .
So effectively iraq can have the pipeline closed for 4 and half years and it's quits on them debts.
So are we looking at 5 years of pipeline closer ??
Nothing would surprise me as OPEC need iraq cuts and kurdistan is the their perfect solution for them not to cut.
So iraq has to cut another 300kbopd o dear !!
All they need to do is keep that pipeline closed as long as possible now so that it keeps their productivity at required levels for OPEC.
More meetings more delays. Just keep kicking that can down the road as long as possible.
I'm afraid the pipeline won't even open this year now.
Local sales is the bread line for survival for all IOCs now