Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Did someone say there was a court hearing coming up?
I've been quietly observing from the sidelines... But I think things are looking great from here.
The recent buys, the inflationary squeeze on households... I believe the judge will push SOA2 through, provide liquidity to the creditors and the market is then ready for a more sustainable AMIGO2.0, supporting those who are most vulnerable in the context of rising bills and interest rates, in a fair and well-governed way.
The future is bright here, the future is blue plasticine!
Martin Luther King day, yesterday, in the US. Not sure if that affects Canada but it likely does affect trading volumes in North America in general. Volumes had actually been pretty big leading up to that. Directors options got exercised, which I think shows good confidence and puts more in sticky hands. Ticking up again, on low volume, in Toronto. Positive path after weeks of SP instability - long may it continue!
30% up in Toronto... Hopefully the start of a re-rate! Volume has been high of late - feels more institutional than private. Not sure I see private investors doing millions of shares. Interesting that Bloomberg, perhaps the most 'respected' of all financial institutions that publish articles like this, would put put Barrick (who Thor will have a good relationship with from Burkina Faso) and Rio in an article. Could one or both of them be positioning themselves in Thor? Underrated share with great cash flow and great prospects!
Good move up so far in Toronto, possibly off the back of:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-12/nigeria-woos-barrick-and-rio-to-spur-nascent-mining-industry
Welcome aboard the good ship THX :D
Nice upward movement in Toronto, on good volume, at the moment. Well deserved and hopefully just the start.
Good update! Come to poppa! We're most definitely back in the game... not that I thought we were out of it. Didn't think Golden's analysis of the plant was correct based on what I had found when digging into the figures! 100k oz would be mega!!
Did you see the volume here yesterday (~30x average) and the volume in Toronto (~10x average)? Was someone moving shares between exchanges somehow, for some reason (price arb? FX hedge?)?
Or...
Seems very suspicious to me that the price drops continuously on small volume and then someone is able to buy extremely large volume on one day. Those shares wouldn't normally be available, day-to-day, cheaply. Engineered? Don't want to go too far down the conspiracy path but the sustained drop on small volumes was unwarranted and now someone may have bought A LOT (~3M trades across both markets if its the same buyer) of shares very cheaply. It's also odd when the VWAP is closer to $0.225 in Toronto that they print a small volume trade at $0.19 and it leaves the share price there. Some of the days reported as falls would have been up days by VWAP. Suspect a lot of people have sold out on the drop, someone's accumulated, and now a bigger fish has those shares, nice and cheap. It should go back up now but I reckon it might take some time to get to highs as a lot of PIs will have limits set way below fair value because of the ferocity of the last fall. Remember, it was $0.3 and $0.4 only a few weeks ago, including before THX was even a producer! The fundamentals haven't really changed - they just had some plant teething issues, which are mostly (if not all) sorted now (last year).
Easy to move the price down when there is so little volume though. Need marketing, PR, brokers, etc on the case... and good news at the updated guidance! More regular news on production figures and exploration would also stop any prolonged/sustained selling or small volume attacks as people could make decisions on buying, selling, holding, etc based on news and future ops and not just SP action.
THX have been busy though - it'll come :)
[apologies I always quote Toronto prices, volumes, etc but that's the more active market (older) and I suspect buys here are just price arbs, like I do, as it's relatively hard for your average punter to buy THX on AIM at the moment, as you have found out. Institutions are probably waiting for quarterly profit and divis before involving themselves but lets see as yesterdays volume feels more institutional than private]
Hi Chris! Good to have you over here. This is my 'home' really but both boards are so quiet :(
Seems odd that there is any concern on this board about paying 5yr loans back, when the total repayment is <2yrs free cash and perhaps back closer to 1yr, if the plant is all sorted and we're back to high recovery, 4g/t throughput. Even at ~US$85M free cash (I don't believe it will be that low, on average, per year) that's plenty to service the 5yr loan(s) and provide investor returns... and fund further exploration and mine extension.
I think people are so used to seeing "1yr payback" quoted that they think the loan terms are 1yr and they will eat all of the free cash. No - that is quoted to show just how quickly the debt can be shed and Thor can be debt free, based on expected cashflow.
Segilola is a high grade, open pit mine. The AISC is low and will remain that way until all the 'easy' (local, open, etc) stuff has gone through the plant and been banked. That's years yet. Years of big profit. The gold price isn't moving much at all and has been ~+/-$1800 for the last 18 months from memory... Might move a bit with inflation, interest rates, etc, etc but I'm confident no crash is coming.
The SP drop in THX is unwarranted and bears no relation to the underlying business. I suspect the SP could just be driven by retail punters selling shares back-and-forth to each other. It would explain the low volumes. When someone (an II for example) comes in and buys a slab, it'll really move very, very fast.
I'm actually rather looking forward to the next update and revised guidance now. Hopefully it will come sooner rather than later i.e. the next week or two. I can't imagine ANYTHING in there being a justification for the share price being down here so if it remains that way; I will hold for years of good dividends and future projects. More fool the folks betting on some of the other AIM gold developers being ramped on here... Thor is a gold producing cash cow!
The unavailability on UK platforms is somewhat frustrating. It's probably not 'interesting enough' (yet) for folks to seek it out, so the lack of volume may continue, albeit a rising price in Toronto (pulling LSE up) might support broker/platform interest or move it into a 'top shares' list to automatically be made available. When I first bought in (~5yrs ago?) I opened an account with Interactive Investor just to be able to buy THX in Toronto. They also offer (and I hold) shares in THX on AIM. I buy wherever the share is cheaper (rarely the UK) as a sort of price arb.
If those share options are to buy - I am sure they will get taken up; the price in Toronto is still around double the exercise price and then that's another ~1% of the company in sticky hands - ones assumes Segun wouldn't be selling any time soon (who are the other 2M for?).
There's not much to say until we get updated guidance really. Wouldn't be surprised to see that on or before the 16th to coincide and would hope that would contain some positive messages and exploration news. They're still making plenty of money to cover the loan and provide a healthy profit so I have zero concerns for the company... but the share price is frustrating and sitting very close to my average, after 5yrs of accumulation. Need to return some investor value.
Happy New Year THXers. I took Christmas off, which was nice. Yep, I don't think it is unfair to say that updated guidance should be on hand and released ASAP. I think they ran pretty close to the Christmas break getting the issues sorted and then simply ran out of time to get the figures firmed up. It happens. I am certainly not concerned about the loan - that appears to be well covered based on the figures in Golden's message, which I think will improve in the next update. The bigger question is... what would it take for people to flock in? What does an II or bigger miner want to see to get involved? Who would they need to sell them shares in real volume? I'd think it's just small PIs and retail pushing the price down at the moment as the volumes are pretty small and irregular. To buy a single large lump was costing a large premium pre-Christmas (haven't looked today). I had a buddy struggling to get filled for 500k and had to buy in 50k lumps (you can see them in the trades tab), which he struggled with some days. I think a few quarters of profit, loan being paid down fast and the announcement of a dividend would wake a few people up. But, yeah, that's not a "tomorrow" thing and I'd expect that to be later in the year, when the plant is merrily operating at optimum, with the good stuff going through. Jam for Segilola extension news and positive Douta updates.
From another (car-related) forum from a major shareholder in IDP (Skinny Tan), I believe (DYOR, etc):
"I spent today at THG up in Manchester and must admit I was really impressed by their setup as well as their management team - I always viewed them as a mini amazon however now have a better appreciation of their service offering. I was really impressed by their studios (10 video recording studios - biggest one could hold a private jet) and their content creation capabilities, not to mention their localisation abilities which can be used to launch products into new geographies.. one of the most impressive visits I’ve done - management team seemed very genuine and capable.
There shares have obviously cratered recently however I’m considering buying in now...."
I was in the AGM and I think you got a very different feeling than you did... have you done the maths on 78,000oz of gold a year at current prices? That's almost $86M free cash, after AISC. Not far at all from expectation, despite plant teething trouble. The share price isn't even 1.5yrs worth of that figure. They can now do the lab testing in 4 days as opposed to 6 weeks and they're selling gold every week. What is there to question about a company that produces more gold (total value) a year than its own market cap? How many more shares to buy? And you've made the guidance sound very sinister... it's Christmas, a week until Christmas. Everyone is on holiday or will be. There is no way it is being updated with the requisite approvals this side of the new year.
If you heard 1500oz/wk and you've extrapolated that over a year at $1800 gold on an AISC of less than $700 then I would be ecstatic at the opportunity to buy at these prices.
Just saw the post by Aussiebattler on CEO:
That was the October pour. It was 36kg - about 1,250oz. See the photo and subsequent post here https://twitter.com/segunlawson/status/1453711058909151238 The November pour only happened this week. The grade has doubled to 4g/t post commissioning problems and the plant is operating at/above nameplate which is encouraging. Segun is sticking with 90-105koz production for 2022 at AISC <$700oz which is great news as it shows he is confident the 'teething' issues have been overcome.
Looking good! Price looks very cheap then IMHO - DYOR!
That's a long one! With respect to:
"When they mention that the operations during the period and issues encountered could not feed the plant with more than 2g/t, is it correct to say that it's not the ore that doesn't have the richness expected but rather that the richer ore was kept on the side until the plant is totally operational ?"
Yes - I believe that to be the explanation, while they were ramping up and having their teething troubles, they were not putting the 'good stuff' through. It is certainly NOT correct to say that there is suddenly 2g/t at Segilola instead of 4g/t meaning there is now only half the gold. The gold is there - just need to ramp-up to full efficiency. As I understand it - DYOR.
With respect to the drilling programme; if there is materially positive OR negative news... I am sure they would have to say. The 3rd quarter results, with the forward looking statements, would have perhaps been the right time. Thus, I am not worried about those at all. I suspect all the attention/effort has been going into the current Segilola plant and fixing those 'issues', the majority of which are stated now to be fixed. Suspect that has kept the small team busy. I'd argue the RNS could have been clearer and a bit more 'positive' but I am not expecting a bad news update any time soon. In fact, with the additional gold pour and some strong statements about the plant being ship-shape - I'm rather looking forward to the next comms from THX.
Look at the share trades the last 4 AIM trading days; 500k buys (not all acknowledged as such on LSE) above the Bid and SP shown here, so we have had an accumulator in the UK and hopefully this points to THX gaining some interest. Volume was also high in Toronto, yesterday (compared to recently) and although the price dropped, it was less than -10% and the selling volume was all eaten up, as we see the price tick back up today. This is worth multiples of where we're at today. 2022 is the year to prove it and return investors value. Good luck to the team - they look like they're working hard to deliver on the expectation!
Slightly disappointing (see RNS) that the Segilola grading is much lower than expected due to some ramp-up issues and teething troubles. It's still good though. Probably to be expected as a brand new producer, to be honest. So, the share price is perhaps explainable but still looks low to me based on the fact that they are profitably producing the shiny stuff! No large volume sells, so all the big boys are holding. Hopefully 2022 is our year as they learn the ropes on the new plant and increase efficiency.
https://thorexpl.com/notes-from-the-field/
There's the gold! No idea what is going on with the price here or Toronto, especially with a number of good buys (some not reported as buys/sells) in London the last two market days. The product is there for all to see... SP deserves to be multiples of where it is today!
Yeah, I think it is early days and Douta could well be upgraded as drilling and exploration progresses. With drilling intersections including 5m grading 1.75g/t Au , 4m grading 3.11 g/t Au and 2m grading 10.65g/t Au, I think the overall MRE at 1.5g/t Au is perhaps conservative and may well be improved in time. You can look up the figures for Segilola (~500k oz @ 4g/t Au) and compare to Douta (~730k oz @ 1.5g/t Au) and immediately see that the AISC is likely to be higher at Douta as they're going to have to move more material for every ounce of gold. [Apology - I see I put 730k 'g' instead of 'oz' in an earlier post but the calcs still stand]. We know that the AISC of Segilola is ~US$685/oz so what we need to understand what that might be at Douta. I have done calcs based on $900/oz & $1000/oz but I guess we will need to wait and see. I wouldn't mind recovering 50k oz a year for 14-15yrs if gold stays around $1850 (ok, that's a long time horizon) even if the AISC is 50% of the gold price. I am sure they are modelling this all as we speak,.
Repost from the guys on CEO.CA: https://twitter.com/Empiretrader82/status/1462217973016322049
Good RNS this morning announcing 730,000g of gold in Senegal... to start! By covering the full 30km license area, there are hopefully billions in the ground, albeit the AISC is likely to be higher than Segilola but will still leave huge profit on the table. The Thor guys are really delivering here. The market cap is ~GBP£125M and they potentially have billions of gold in the ground, with debt to be paid off in a year or so and one mine derisked and producing commercially and another being developed. Time for a long overdue re-rate and to wake the market up.
I suspect we'll have some good news on all fronts before Christmas - maybe they're 'saving it up' for a big mic drop! It would be nice to get lots of regular updates on progress on drilling, etc but people still seem to be sleeping on this so maybe some big, harder hitting news drops are a better strategy than dripping out what might be perceived by the market to be minor stuff. It looks like we're ~+40% on the month (in Toronto at least, which I still consider the main market) so the performance ism frankly, excellent. I still believe we're probably only 50% of where we should be on future earning potential, with Segilola producing commercially, but there is time. Pay the debt down, drop out a healthy dividend, get Douta set up and this will be a very nice long term hold.