New note8 Feb 2021 11:42
'AfriTin Mining Limited
AfriTin Mining is an AIM-listed mining company focused on increasing production
levels at its 85%-owned Uis Tin-Lithium-Tantalum Project, located in Namibia. AfriTin
has evolved over the past 12 months, from being a tin focused development company,
to being a polymetallic mining company.
Additional studies completed by the company during the year have further highlighted
the importance of by-products, including tantalum and lithium, to further improve the
economics of its operations at Uis.
AfriTin has completed Stage I of its Phase 1 production ramp-up at its pilot mining and
processing facility, achieving 63.9 tonnes of tin concentrate (containing 41.6 tonnes of
tin metal) during November 2020. Following the optimisation initiatives implemented
over the course of 2020, the performance of the operation has exceeded nameplate
production.
2021 will see AfriTin focus on maintaining steady state production, while exploring
opportunities for further optimisation and expansion of the operation (Stage II). These
opportunities include a modular expansion of the plant throughput and potential
production of a by-product in the form of a tantalum concentrate using magnetic
separation. The company will also continue to advance its studies into the possibility of
producing of a petalite concentrate from the mine (Stage III).
Production Levels, Revenue and Operating Profit
We forecast the Uis Mine to produce 1,071t of tin concentrate and 51t of tantalum
concentrate in 2021, rising to 1,244t of tin concentrate, 58t of tantalum concentrate and
37,467t of petalite concentrate in 2022.
Following the Phase 2 development, commencing in 2023 we forecast production levels
to increase substantially, reaching 5,108t of tin concentrate, 483t of tantalum
concentrate and 156,114t of petalite concentrate in 2025.
Based on these production forecasts and metal prices of US$23,000/t for tin,
US$150,000/t for tantalum and US$375/t for petalite concentrate, we forecast total
revenue of US$15.4m in 2021, increasing to US$17.8m in 2022. Post Phase 2 we forecast
revenue to increase to US$146.8m in 2025.
This results in the Uis Mine generating an operating profit of US$7.5m in 2021, rising
to US$22.9m in 2022 and reaching US$75.9m in 2024 once Phase 2 commences.
TPI updates its base-case valuation
We have updated our risked valuation for AfriTin to 12p per share, from 9.5p per share
previously, this is an upside of 190% on the current share price. Our unrisked valuation
is 15p per share an upside of 262% on the current share price.'