RE: Float31 Jan 2018 08:55
My argument about timing is based on the assumption that the VS Board will seek to maximise value in any sale. Heading to the Exit too early will leave far too much value on the table.
Notion are a professional B2B SaaS investor who will look for 7-10x returns on their investment over 3-5 years (hence my view on timescales), which means an exit valuation of �550m-780m (fully diluted). Assuming a 10x of forward looking revenue this would require VS to be credibly forecasting �55-75m revenues. I think they are a way away from that at the moment.
I completely agree that LEG are a one trick pony, and I think ZK got lucky with VS - although credit too him that he did take the risk and buy in early. I also don't believe he has any great insight into the business as VS seem to run a very tight news cycle. Also, if the VS Board are as good as their bios suggest then they won't associate too closely with ZK.
Full disclosure - I got in at 0.12 and got out at 0.34 a long time ago - now watching and biding my time - but I agree that with VS this stock has potential.