worse case scenario5 Mar 2013 12:37
Hi all. Just a quick comment concerning edmwnd's post, particularly that the independent auditors would use “worst case scenario for each contract, so avoiding worst case for any of the projects will result in a lower loss.”. Is it not probable that the auditors would have tried their best to get a true reflection of the position and accordingly losses could equally be plus or minus, dependent on their margin of error.
My reasoning is that Lamprell would not have wished to overstate losses, in the knowledge that their share price would plummet and as creditors tend to look favourably upon companies whose shares are performing strongly and vice versa, this would compound problems. Consequently, any auditor that unduly overstated the problem would themselves be shunned by future companies seeking an independent audit. Indeed, in the current financial climate of über jittery investors, would it not be beneficial to understate and ‘cushion the blow’ if you will.
Btw, I bought in at 80p and therefore I am in the fortunate position of being able to sit tight, in the knowledge that mid to long term I am almost guaranteed to be on a BIG winner in my humble opinion.