Hi tonyj
Not sure what your question is or why you are asking me.
I don't think that anyone knows when subbies contracts are going to be announced or the size of them.
Just got to wait it out.
ITT
Hi tonyj
Firstly, I think that this is a complete racket and wish I had nothing to do with it. However, I am where I am.
I think that you know how the Warrants work but I'll answer anyway.
The paricipants have the opportunity to by their share of the 27,000,000 (yes 27 million) shares within the next 18 months at 15p per share. Obviously, by May 2025, the SP might be substantially higher than 15p but their opportunity to buy is locked at that price. There's nothing stopping the Warrant user selling their 15p shares immediately at whatever the price is at that time.
Potentially, an extremely profitable perk but, first off, we need to get to 15p.
GL
ITT
It's obviously hard work raising capital ATM.
Subscribers have driven a hard bargain, paying just 7p per share (after the EIS tax reducer) and warrants at 15p exercisable on or before 09/05/2025 (18 months).
It'll be interesting to see if there's any reaction tomorrow.
GL
ITT
Hi tonyj
I don't pretend to know how the tech works but my punt is based on Cyan's tech being fairly integral when it comes to Genus's offering. If that is confirmed, we'll be off. I don't want to think about what might happen if that isn't the case but that's the bet.
GL
ITT
Hi CB
Genus appear to be doing really well on the winning new business front.
Their managing director (Jitendra Kumar Agarwal) apparently said that:
"Since July 2023, the company has won six orders totaling $2 billion for around 17.2M smart prepaid meters. In addition to this, earlier this month the company received two more Letters of Acceptance (LOAs) worth $415 million for similar services."
I wonder how Cyan's SP would react if it was confirmed that its technology is integral to Genus's offering.
O/T: Were you at The Lane on Monday? What a crazy night.
GL
ITT
Hi LTI
Thanks.
However, we have been here before with Deloitte (Nov'2017) - not in India but with one of these award things. Hope GT/IN's system for ranking Cyan so highly stands up to a bit more scrutiny.
GL
ITT
Just finished reading Rebooting India by Nandan Nilekani (Co-Founder & Chairman of Infosys) after tightfist recommended it on the other BB. Really enjoyed it.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rebooting-India-Realizing-Billion-Aspirations/dp/024100392X
I'd love it if Infosys or Nandan took a bit of interest in Cyan.
If you've got 20 minutes to spare:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7sI6PLqKnI
GL
ITT
If they haven't, perhaps CC should have trademarked 'Omnimesh'.
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/omnimesh
Hi LTI
Thanks for your message.
If I'm wrong and the MENA contracts are worth a lot more than my estimates, that's great but I'll believe it when I see it.
Now, back to wondering if we're going to get anything more from Genus.
GL
ITT
Hi LTI
In yesterday's RNS, it says that the hubs ordered on 05/04/2022 have been used to connect to 1 million Omnimesh cellular communications modules in the MENA region.
As I couldn't remember Cyan making a sale of 1 million Omnimesh cellular communications modules in the MENA region, I had another quick look at the history of RNSs and could see that the 04/08/22 order was for a new cellular product (described as 'Cellular Gateways') which were to be fitted to existing smart electricity meters and the contract was worth $2.5M. Rightly or wrongly, I am assuming that the customer received 1M 'Cellular Gateways' for $2.5M (as 1 million Omnimesh cellular communications modules have in fact been connected to).
$2.5M ÷ 1M = $2.5 each.
Then, again in yesterday's RNS, it says that the hubs being purchased have the capacity to connect 1.41M devices. I'm assuming that these devices will need Omnimesh cellular communications modules to complete the connection.
1.41M modules x $2.5 = $3.53M + a bit of inflation takes me to $4M'ish.
Feel free to correct me, I'm always happy to learn.
Cheers
ITT
JC is definitely saying that there is a Cyan Omnimesh cellular communication module in every one of the 1 million smart electricity and smart water meters in MENA.
If that is not the case, the RNS needs to be corrected IMO.
If it is the case, how did the customer get the 1M cellular communication modules? I don't remember that sale being reported. The Genus/Bihar 1M order was is our largest order to date.
Am I wrong?
ITT
Hi jakeandelwood
Well done on finding a trading strategy that works with Cyan.
IMO, this is now a binary bet i.e. is Cyan's tech being used substantially by Genus or not?
If so, great. When that fact gets confirmed, the SP could easily increase by 100% on the same day.
If not, I'm struggling to see what the point is of Cyan existing at all.
GL
ITT
Four orders (three with IntelliSmart) received in the last five months and the SP is 45% down since the first one landed.
It seems being in IntelliSmart's camp isn't cutting the mustard with the market.
It seems that, one way or another, JC needs to prove that Cyan hasn't been used (abused), then dumped by Genus.
ITT
From the Trading Update (06/07/2023):-
"Higher proportion of revenue from Middle East, albeit on lower margin hardware, affecting forecast overall gross margin. While it is too early to determine at this stage, it is expected that as a result Adjusted EBITDA will also be lower than market expectation."
My guess is we're back in this territory, which might explain today's SP reaction.
ITT
I see one of our suppliers (SOLI) is bouncing back well after losing about a third of its value since August. Now 'only' 15% down.
Whereas Cyan has lost half of its value during the same period and shows no sign of reversing any of that loss.