Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
JB - Did you do maths at school? - avg £20??????????????????
Been keeping an eye on Buy and Sell vols over last 2 weeks. overall been more buys than sells although as we know you never can tell on this board which are really subject to the programming application. Like everyone I have had Buys shown as Sells on several trades. One thing for sure is that there are a lot of "Unknowns" in decent size. particularly at end of day.
I suspect that this is all just tax year flipping and nothing is really going on.
Guess we just have to be patient and await formal approval and signings.
GLA
IK
Hi GMS - Great info thanks vm.
GL
IK
Hi Kinsella
Saw this somewhere a few days ago - FYI:
"Equinor in April will begin drilling the Argerich-1 exploration well in the CAN 100 block in the North Argentinian basin, offshore Argentina.
The well will be drilled 315 km from the port of Mar del Plata by the Valaris DS-17 drillship in 1,527 m water depth. It will be the first to be drilled in the country in ultra-deep waters. The well is expected to reach about 2,500 m in depth and 106 cm in diameter at the sediment surface. Drilling work is estimated to take 55-65 days.
The Argerich project is operated by Equinor with 35% interest. Partners are YPF (35%) and Shell plc (30%)."
I understand that this is relatively near AREA Off -1 and in similar geological region so outcome could have some influence one way or another.
GL
IK
Hi Euston - do you mean me? x
In4 - You are either being sent to Pentonville; "Jail"; Bow St; |Coventry; or a place where Jack The Ripper might kill you off for those terrible attempts at humour!!!
Nevertheless keep it up - makes me happier.
Cheers.
IK
MM - Yes I concur.
My gut says the same.
As I mentioned yesterday I believe almost 100% of Shareholders are "small PIs."
They are old hands like me who got stung on"Perseverance" but said sod it, "in for a penny etc..."
Or newbies who as you said jumped in on recent news and got a bit caught.
We have seen it so many times B4.
I mentioned t'other day another possibility (I dont really think this is viable BUT):-
A Major doing it a different way to Chevron (or maybe even Chevron playing the long con) by going for T/O.
I noticed Monday that there was quite aggressive buying consistently from start of trading
until early P.M. Approx 35 mill shares bgt.
This was followed by small parcel selling all P.M. Approx 10mill shares.
SP ---C.O.B. @ 0.15 same as S.O.T. @ 0.15.
Of course that could have just been YOU!! - Day Trading but I like to try to cover all "Maybes."
The reason I am a tiny bit suspicious is that BPC did get a Major "interested" during the Farmin attempt for
"Perseverance." You will probably recall the Major paid a decent sum for 3 Months "excusivity" in "The Data Room."
They even extended for 3 months and then cut and ran after a total of 4 months. Shenanigans were suspected but no one knows. I think the amount paid was circa $1/2 mill in total. Anyway just thought I would mention it.
GL
IK
In4 You need to go straight to jail and don't nick £200 on the way there!
Funny though Sir!!
X
hi mr wise
like you, i always find it difficult to "audit" these companies re specific financials.
i could be way off and would like to be corrected if someone is better at this stuff than me.
however my back of *** pkt calcs are broadly:-
oil revenues approx $9 million p.a. and consistentish for last 2/3years.
poo circa $82 wti and fairly stablish.
(madmax - i think most big geopolitical factors are as per now for the next year.
ergo poo around $75-100 for coming year. presidential election/uk election etc will mean no change.)
day to day expenses hard to nail down but they look to have been consistent for a while now.
extraordinary expenses e.g. 3d seismics have obviously been high, however they are about to virtually disappear.
point is:-
balance sheet has been sorted out in the main.
no debt to speak of.
cashflow in is stable.
extraordinary costs are about to be funded by chevron/whoever.
why do we need to go to market - can someone cleverer than me please tell me
which bit i am missing.
p.s. i am getting on a bit so treat me gently pls sirs!.
gla
ik
Hi Madmax
Thanks for your response - excellent rationale and trading strat.
I used to "job" stuff a bit but now in more advanced years prefer longer term strats.
(I drink too much if I'm stressed!)
You are right it is so easy for a short term position to become a long term position
(got the t-shirt mate) because it goes the wrong way. It very rarely come good in my experience.
Take your losses eh?
Thanks for sharing, good to know that you are a short and long term trader/investor.
Helps to understand who knows their stuff and importantly who to take notice of.
GL Mon Ami
IK
MADMAX - Serious question - Does that mean you have shorted it pls?
GL
IK
Hi JWB
I genuinely can't see where the shortfall is that you allude to.
Can you give me some assistance please and explain why the sums don't add up to be able to afford the drill?
Many thanks mon ami.
Cheers and GL
IK
M & obviously Wise! Thanks.
I genuinely believe that the Sword of Damocles is hanging over the SP due to precedent.
Quite rightly, Investors (prospective and actual) who almost certainly are ALL relatively small PIs are extremely nervous about The Bahamas meltdown and failure.
I DO NOT RAMP and never have RAMPED this or any other share contra to KING JB's assertions.
In fact this is the only share on AIM I have ever been involved with and that was because of Alan Burns's reputation.
I have been in this share since 2010 - bgt @ 4P - sold @ 23.5p a year or two later (only small.)
Bgt again @ an avg of 2p over several years and held until the eventual demise on "duster."
Lost 6 £figures.
I now hold the same amount of shares I held @ "Bahamas duster" @ 0.001475p having avg'd down.
I believe that during Covid Simon was quie simply smart to steel a march on the Big Boys who were all
working from Home and getting paid daft money so to do.
To get the second licence was nothing short of miraculous.
N.B. Simon having worked for BP or Shell was Alan Burn's protege 20 years ago.
Someone had to take the fall for the Bahamas failure. See ya Simon ----Not really - still totally involved - he is a geologist!!
I've had 40 years in the "investment" business professionally and have not really been quite as excited as I am now about this Uruquay project for potential.
The thing that gets me a bit (not much does to be honest) is that quite rightly small PIs are warned about getting too carried away. However, sometimes , maybe 2-4 times in your life you get an oppurtunity and its worth a shot with what you can afford.
This is not advice to invest!!!
This is advice to make your own decisions; DYOR and IF you can afford it have a dabble.
This IMHO just might me one of those "times."
Just do Baby steps - couple of quid and wait, then get a feel and maybe a bit more.
Anyway guys i am just trying to help with the benefit of experience on both side of winning ang losing in this share.
GLA
IK.
Sorry - typo - should read:
Chevron will pay other 60 % not 50%
Morning comek2
Pretty much spot on Sir.
Couple of additional thoughts at the risk of incurring the wrath of JB:
BPC - Cost of failed (one attempt) drill in The Bahamas was circa $35-40 million.
(Bahamas drill was much deeper water and Chevron have there own Drill capabilities as opposed to 3rd party outsourcing so should be cheaper.)
Assuming Chevron AREA OFF-1 deal is signed in next few weeks:-
Chevron will be contracted for 50% of CEG cost of first drill in AREA OFF-1 upto $20 million.
Chevron will pay other 50 %.
CEG should have circa $10 million to contribute so may have to provide perhaps another $10 million.
Area 3 sounds as if it will likely be farmed out to at least similar benefit to CEG.
CEG get minimum $12.5 million to use against first drill in AREA OFF - 1.
CEG have very little outgoings to contribute outside of an actual drill.
"Chevron will carry 100% of CEG Uruquay's share of the costs associated with a 3D seismic campaign on AREA OFF-1, upto a maximum of $15 million net to CEG Uruquay."
As WWT says: "Depends entirely on the events of the future...."
However, recent events make things look quite promising.
GLA
IK
Morning WWT - I agree - just wanted to understand JWB's logic in case I've missed something.
GL
IK
Morning JWB ---Why do you think there will be a capital raise requirement Sir?
GL
IK
Comek2 - Hi I think Euston was just alluding to the fact that when Malcy gets involved, its like the kiss of death for a share.
I THINK he/she/they/trainspotter/41 yr old/QWERTY was just being humourous and perhaps sardonic.
Bit like me sometimes but unless ya see the smile on their face whilst deliveringt humour it's not always easy to tell.
P.S. EUSTON - I CONCUR - But Malcy might just be useful this time - broken clock - right twice a day etc.
GLA
IK
Oh John John John
I try to ignore anything that is not SP specific and pertinent but you really do push the boundaries!
Keyboard warriors are prolific:
KEY means amongst other things - vital to the issue.
Board is generally people who have experience in business and can make decisions.
(Don't come back with the numpty answer "yeh but no but" - CEG board.)
I prefer to use "Typing Warrior" which I acronym TW@.
GLA
IK
"Uruguay’s state-run oil company, Ancap, has awarded a total of SEVEN (I thought it was 9 but can't be bothered to check) offshore oil and gas exploration licenses to foreign companies. These licenses were open for bids, and the successful bidders include:
YPF (Argentina)
APA Corp (United States)
Shell (United Kingdom)
Challenger Energy Group (CEG) (United Kingdom)
Presumably otheres wanted licences in the area.
So what do you do? ----- Get into the "minnow" who has 2 of the 7.
One way to do this is push the price down - scare the small PIs who
unquestionably own the majority of the minnow and seek a foothold that way.
AND - Do a farmin. e.g. Chevron.
Point is: The relatively little share activity might indicate deliberate suppression thereof for
strategic reasons. N.B. Could possibly indicate takeover bid????
All IMO but worth bearing in mind.
P.S. Ive seen it done.
GLA
IK