6 week opinions17 Feb 2020 18:07
I'm trying to play this scenario out in my mind.
My opinion in that this is a black swan event. One in a lifetime viral epidemic that potentially threatens large parts of the world. We also have shares in the first to market, highest quality provider of said "tool" to help manage this threat. In the absence of a cure or vaccine, testing and isolation is the only solution. How do you think this plays out over the next 6 weeks:
This week: CE mark, FDA, product launch: SP circa 300-400 based on speculation?
Wk 2: Mass sales: SP circa 700?
Wk 4: Licensing agreements with big pharma to plug any demand issues; SP; 700-1000?
Wk 6: Depends on competition, testing time, accuracy, viral spread: SP range is larger i feel; Larger bottom and larger top
What do you guys think? Trying to evaluate the risks with time.....