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What is meant by stem cell therapies for transplant rejection in this context? The narrow normal use of the term transplant refers to movement of materials between living things - such as a kidney donated from one person to another. Is this the broader use of the term to refer to the autologous situation where one living thing (in this case a human being) has material taken out of them to be modified and then reinserted into them in modified form?
that would be good. maybe 5m priced in and if sovereign test news comes to take that to a 30m min it may mean 600m extra profit per year for a few years which on its own would put a bit of a short term thruster blast and long term burn under the Avacta sp, It would also provide a kind of validation that this is something for other governments to look at.
my view year old is watching Numberblocks. I said 'look here son you need to put a b on the front of these if you are gonna help daddy with his Avacta sales calcs. He said '100 billion' which is a bit optimistic for LFT sales perhaps but not far off in terms of the likely addressable market for next year or two.
Is BEV actually competition? Isnt green hydrogen going to be niche due to production capacity limitations and isn't it going to do well for more difficult to transition to electric parts of the transport industry - like large planes and ships
I didn't see the European comment as an especially big deal. They are just distributors and of course you should have them lined up. What matters is that you or they also have sales lined up. I am sure these will come as will manufacturing to supply to them
Rolly is talking utter crap. Of course its not going to be no profit contracts for manufacturers or the test owner. Nonsense. Why don't you look at a materially relevant comparator - the UKRTC antibody test. As I understand it manufactures made a fair bit of margin and Abingdon who I believe was the test owner, made more. This is where folk get figures like 1 quid margin for manufacturers and 2/3 for test owner from. At just 30m produced a month that's more than the MCap of Avacta made in profit in a year. And 30m was intended to be just the start - there is clearly still an intention to push on with Toyota on board to help that. I believe that with respect to the antibody test the govmt also bought a lot of kit which widened margins further. They seem to be doing similar with respect to antigen judging by the bidstats contracts.
Great post hano - I mean they well be making automated machines but yes they are experts in process. Maybe they will surprise us all by making them in a mass scale way as well - if they have the space why not?
Templar - Toyota heavily based in Derbshire which is where Ginolis have also set up shop for helping the roll out of their heavily government bought LFT automated machines. Wonder if their is a connection here - so rather than Toyota actually producing LFTs maybe it is manufacturing the machinery - on its own or possibly in partnership with Ginolis or another company such as Huxley Bartram. This would have echoes of the ventilator partnership early in the pandemic. Machiney has quite a long lead in time and this might be a way of speeding things up.
7 per cent up now
My take is all share/boards have a portion of stoopid narrow minded investors. ODX got someone else's portion too. Many are just chancers like in BRH who haven't applied much rationality to their investment let alone research. Whilst I had respect for the CEO I now think even he is playing on that by ramping on about the Mologic test. Many are too stoopid to understand the extent of differential between the Avct sensitivity (99per cent U30 CT) and that of the Mologic test (less sensitive at U25 with an easier reference point form of PCR as Pottery has noted). Many of them go on about market cap being lower which they stoopdily think means it has more upward runway (no assessment of addressable markets). Almost as bad as the muppets from NYCT who like to pretend past revenue is a rational basis on which to select it over the likes of Avct.
To maximise returns patience is required at times and impatience at others. There are plenty of opportunities to trade in and out of things based on price relative to value. I do it regularly, albeit I am still at best average at it. Its about ones personal tolerances, psychology and having the time and skill. My own situation is that I am thinking like a trader for about a third of my portfolio and a lth for the rest. For avacta specifically I only trade 5-10 of my Avct holding and the number of share I have has progressively driven up overall by hundreds of per cent in the last year
Is that Skymonkey or actually Spymonkey come back to haunt HP?
Yep have my doubts too Scaredy. Beinthelead it does clearly come down partly to price and partly to performance. And the differentials between the tests on price are almost certain to be low because you are just talking about the magic strip element not the whole test. Cost of strip is pretty standard also so it boils down to what any competitors want for the magic bit. They want costs plus a margin. Avacta has lower costs (affimers are cheaper to produce) so can compete with Mologic on price whilst getting a better margin. I would say your scenario of Mologic being half the money is thus a pretty crazy outlier.
Affimers are cheaper to produce (for their effort and ingenuity and cost of the ).
You make a case Scaredy but it is a limited one in terms of Mologic share as follows
1. ODX to manufacture Mologic as sovereign but only whilst TT of Avacta test is being sorted and thereafter to build a stockpile to cover VOC - though Avct is resilient on VOCs so and quickly adaptable to don't see justification for more than a 4 week stockpile
2. Other manufacturers of sovereign to TT mologic as back up
One test - the best (Avacta) - and one back up test the second best (Mologic). You don't need to give any money to the back up - it is there being produced anyway by ODX and has the same (Mologic) architecture. Mologic will be happy anyway - their GAD arm is reported to be taking the lions share of govmt machines - 5m capax as opposed to 1m for ODX - so they will make plenty on their contract to manufacture as Timster has noted already in this thread.
Myles didn't leak any rumour he simply responded to the rumour Emma put out which was not evidenced in any way.
We know PA consulting planned 60m capacity to be in place by now but actually we only know fragments of the picture, Most of the machines are from the company who said a month or so back that they were installing 28 in total but this would take several months.
In the long term TB is dangerously harmful to shareholder health
A guide on options on how to follow Myles M:
1.Blindly follow option. Most of his choices prove to give very good return and a few are mediocre or offer mediocre return - if you are going to 'blindly' follow you need to get all the same stocks just after he gets them and try to make proportionalise them in your portfolio as he does. By doing this you will not ape his returns as you will usually ending up paying a bit more and selling for a bit less, but you will probably make 3/4 of the return that he does on shares bought in the standard way (you are unlikely to be able to ape him on placings).
2. Use his selections as a pre-screen. Another option is to use his thoughts/selections as one of your sources that you utilise for making stock picks. This is what I do.
Cautions:
1. Beware taking on board what some random person says - many on twitter and lse are pump and dump merchants
2. Myles is an example of someone who is not pump and dump but when anyone is in a share they tend to talk about the positives in it and not so much the negatives so you have to treat what they say as like a glossy brochure and that means to end up being a good investor you need to develop your own research and judgment.
3. whilst shares can bag many times just because someone is recommending a share that they have done well out of already doesn't mean that its actually a good time to buy it. if you are going to blindly follow what Myles trades in it is generally going to work out best if you get in early and sell perhaps 15 % before his indicated target price (he tends to start getting out before his target price is hit)
I thought the 8b pot was for manufacturers too. The think if their is a single magic strip provider for the duration they would be looking at maybe 3 billion, the lions share of which would be profit.
its not even clear what the wording of the twitter message meant (esp. the word sueplus). But in any event PA consulting were targeting 2m tests a month by end of April so we are just talking about a rumour that what they planned may come to fruition which is what one might have thought likely anyway. You can see the scenerios on known possibles coming to fruition from Sportstrader's and my posts below. And, of course, there is the potential for this to go much bigger over time and capture a large part of the LFT market, especially via licensing to large manufacturers