The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I agree PL. I believe with their diagnostic and manufacturing expertise we could get off the mark much quicker when it comes to producing new LFTs and other tests and then also ramp much quicker. In this pandemic we are facing numerous tests that are systemically embedded - possibly with the aid of brown envelopes in some cases and certainly proving difficult to dislodge despite their relative mediocrity which itself is posing a problem in terms of take-up and reputation of LFTs generally. I would buy them out as soon as we have a serious lump of 100s of millions of cash from a sales contract. Or even before that with a shares deal
If they catch half it is hardly news in the sense that they only catch half of anything. Except orange juice which they can very reliably detect.
Not an expert particularly so this is more of a question: Isn't there going to be an issue with producing enough quantities of reasonably greenly and efficiently produced hydrogen for the multiple purposes that it could be used for and, if so, isn't it a case of working out the priorities for deployment which must start with uses that are difficult for other reasonable alternative energy production to reach?
scaredy - the data sheet on innova has been known for some time and I think the govmt accept the actual figures are different, and different again with untrained public self testing and likely different again when used AN. But it is galling that companies are being allowed to make claims about their accuracy that have no bearing to the accuracy levels that they actually have used in the real world by trained and, most especially untrained, users. I imagine that these sorts of claims are probably part of what got innova into trouble - and relatedly the fact that unless it is being used naso on symptomatic with professional supervision the company does not actually have its own relevant validation. Sure PHE have data but the authorities of other countries should question whether it is appropriate to rely on that.
Yep Ben x 4 encapsulates why its gone down pretty much. Presentation badly managed also because it had people questionning what the demand is when that is not in question and the real story was that they have hooked up 30m capacity for Europe - which is a massive story even on his downbeat projections for margin.
gje the government can phase out free tests to the public but not to the sectors in which it has direct responsibility - government services and state education and healthcare, prisons etc. And the testing opportunity in these is massive and would alone consume the 30m tests per month that is currently being looked at, 25m of which is via government machinery. It would literally make no sense to abandon that machinery only then to have to source testing anyway.
Magnet to some extent I share your view. But lets temper it a bit. They would have been negotiating for a while but its probably only on the news of successful registration of the test that they have been getting into the end game of finalising terms and then as Miles says on twitter it takes about two weeks from that for the lawyers to finalise the contracts. So MF might be right. We could be about to get sales contract news. Or it might yet be a week or two. I reckon in any event te whole 30m European capacity will sell easily enough over the summer and rocket the sp.
nice upbeat thread folks. Yes topped up just over 10k of share this morning around 162. I am in no rush. Know this will at least 3 bag by summer end
last post was response to MCM. This is a response to Wyn. Are you trying to buy in cheaper again because that is a pretty one sided post. The list of things that hasn't come to past is long. And the missed deadlines too. But it is absurd to paint the situation as just one of failure.
The big successes in the last year are
1.licensing and partnerships
2. We have a lft of a quality that surpassed all expectations and is the best in the world.
3. We have extra capacity that AS didn't promise or bank on - 30m in Europe. It will sell in the coming month or two because we have the best test and are in the middle of the worst pandemic in more than 100 years. That will transform the sp
Not really. It was poor presentation. We got that 30m new European capacity and instead of folk going away thinking about the profits that can come from that they went away wondering if we have a sales problem. We have no sales problem. Just need time to complete negotiations and go through legal formalities of contracts. We can expect some big buyers in the coming days/weeks/months. The capax will get fully booked before the end of summer. And as it starts getting booked AS will start arranging additional capax. The SP will surge to 5 quid as a minimum on the back of these happenings. Obviously much more if the contracts are longer than a year and as we start to get above 30m.
All of that is almost a given and has derisked the situation further. HMG sovereign contract in next month or so is in my view extremely likely but we cannot treat it as a given. It would just be a massive cherry on top and with it as well as the above we could then look at 10 quid by end of summer.
PiersD. The fundamentals are better. We just got 30m additional European capacity to draw on. which equates over the 3-5 year testing frame AS mentioned to a total profit of between 1 and nearly 4 billion Euros.
Avacta probably hit today by big seller Marik and also whilst there is good news in the rns and presentation none of it consists of actual orders for the LFT. Many folk jaded of waiting. I think this has been the mixed bag all along. On the one hand a generally good CEO who doesn't properly calibrate when giving time lines and since he runs a relatively small and limited experience company has some teething pains developing big initiatives such as the LFT, particularly when relying on third parties some of which he openly stated don't deliver. On the other great platforms/IP and great opportunites for stellar growth.
Some of us probably got overexcited on sales of the LFT and ought to give the management more post test approval time to actuate them. By end of August would be a better place to take stock - we would almost certainly then know of sales of the 30m europe/row capacity and also what's happening with the 5-30m earmarked for UK. The former alone moves the need seriously - even at 1-2 euro margin per test we accumulate somewhere between 1 and nearly 4 billion profit over the total course of the 3-5 years of testing that AS believes is inevitable. I expect as a minimum that by end of August we will easily have sold out of a years capacity - probably at closer to 2 euros margin a test and the market will have to nearly double the sp just to account for that even if it ignores the potential of what happens after. That alone would make most of us happy bunnies.
With PCR you force a bunch of people who are not infectious and in many cases esp. after vaccine will never become infectious to isolate. And you force the once was infectious to continue isolating when in non- infectious tail. You also miss a bunch of people who are infectious but without symptoms because its too expensive, slow and unwieldy to use as a mass screener.
Anyway I can't see random mass screening being a big thing because of the sheer volume of hyper sensitive tests that will be needed for more targeted use, even more so with current and expected future opening up. Test for release reduced quarantine, and test for access to higher risk contexts (events, seeing patients, those in care homes, flights and so on).
PL I think that unless they have a govmt deal sewn up they should get on an sell capacity generated by our known bilateral partners asap to Europe, unless they have new bilateral partners set up to cater to that. I think its an advertorial that helps build up further sales steam and interest amongst manufacturers and also creates some FOMO for DHSC and might also force DHSC to up their game in terms of speed and scale of generating sovereign capacity.
Stop writing named threads. Its bullying. Filtered. Green box for you. Freedom of speech blah blah.
Operation ****ing Hopeless
Operation Short Lee
manufacturing and influence and sales channels - and that's all good for us
The implication of 2 months is that govmt are still eyeing avct taking up the baton. 2 months enables
tech transfer to be finished up
ramping and stockpiling
use of test experimentally at events or whatever which should strengthen the use case for it.
What I would like to see though is avct get on and sell bilateral capacity to Europe to get it into action and enable its reputation to burgeon and encourage more orders to flow in thereby and also encourage existing and potential manufacturers to allocate serious capacity to it.
my only material risk concern on the domestic front is government crookedness but affidx is so superior that govmt ought to be able to see the necessity for it and how it might help them politically.
damn my formo estimate on thursday morning was 4 hours off. still its coming...