Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I also understand (again, not fact) that Rob Terry is still holding all of his DAN shares and would like to increase further (but cannot do so at present due to the FCA restrictions).
There is some negativity on here which is understandable. However, having contacted DAN recently, I can confirm that DAN have not disappeared. Rather, I understand that: That business is improving with a growing pipeline of work That they are currently considering a number of different options including both a listing on a stock exchange or on a matched bargain service and will update in due course once a decision has been reached. It would also appear that various shorters, desperate to close out short positions, are spreading negative rumours (in the same way as they spread rumours about Quindell going to zero before it rocketed to 130p) and suggesting ridiculously low prices in order to scare private investors. I would strongly suggest ignoring such parties. If you look at GATE Ventures, which appeared to be a fraudulent company, then it can be seen that the share price rose very significantly after delisting. The reason for this was that shorters needed to close out and had to pay whatever price was demanded by buyers. May I ask why shorters might be trying to scare private investors before the shares are relisted and trying to do off-market deals? The only logical reason is that they want to close out before the market re-opens because they are scared of having to pay much more. When the market re-opens, if holders hold then the shorters will burn. I understand (I cannot present this as fact, as I do not work at the company) that business is improving with new clients being taken on and the RNS of January supports this, as do Rob Terry's various remarks (I very much doubt that if he is being investigated by the SFO that he would be stating outright lies, and pumping millions of his own money in to buy more shares off market before the shares list again). In time, one would think that the share price should rise as business improves. So, we have a situation as follows: Shorters desperate to close their positions off-market before trading resumes Rob Terry increasing his position to the maximum possible off-market before trading resumes A third party buying significant numbers of shares off market from Rob Terry at 3.35p A positive forward-looking trading announcement about improving pipelines of work from the company Very supportive shareholders putting in more money What would this suggest? I do not present this as fact but looking at this it would appear that the company is poised for growth (quite possibly strong growth with additional work from major shareholders and new clients), with shorters desperate to get out and RT trying to buy as much as possible to profit from this growth.
This is looking very cheap. A good company here with good assets. I guess that we are close to or at the bottom here. As long as there is no dilution from a rights issue this looks like a good entry point in my opinion (the 220ish low is better but 253 is not bad on a long term basis....far cheaper than it has been for years). Market cap less than $4bn seems ridiculously low. Reminds me of Barclays in March 2009...which then rocketed....although any rise here might be less pronounced and sentiment re China is still weak.
It is said that delisting will save Daniel Stewart GBP 200k to 300k a year starting now, which will be added to the bottom line in profit, which would only seem to increase the rate of the company's growth and hence the likely speed at which its share price would increase. It also seems that for shares that have delisted from AIM recently, share prices have often increased significantly. For example, the price of GATE Ventures increased significantly after leaving AIM, even though that company is most likely a fraud. So delisting might not be that bad an option. After all, why would Rob Terry be so keen on delisting, unless he thought that it would help to increase the value of his investment and move the share price higher more quickly.
Strangely, it might be the bottom or close to it. One would have expected the news of Rob Terry selling most of his stake to cause the share price to collapse, but it barely moved, suggesting perhaps that most of the selling is now done. Looking at the long term chart the 2p – 3p area looks like a good candidate for a bottom.
I suspect that the delisting here could, in a perverse way, actually be good for this share. I understand that this share was being shorted whilst it was trading on AIM and that was probably a significant cause of the decline in the price here from 4p+ to 1.7p. Indeed, Rob Terry wrote in his blog that one of the key reasons that he wanted the share to come off AIM was to avoid the shorting. Around mid-2015, he stated with a high degree of confidence that the fair value of DAN was 4p – 4.5p having done research into the firm and having had constructive meetings with management and, as per the RNS on 15 January, the company’s prospects are strengthening significantly with a growing pipeline, new areas of strength and new clients. The company raised new funds at 3.35p and Rob Terry sold some of his investment recently at 3.35p off market. If people are happy to pay 3.35p when the shares are trading at 1.7p this clearly suggests significant value. Whilst he has sold most of his stake in IMTK, he is increasing his stake as much as possible off market, recently upping his stake twice. RT is no fool and everything here seems to point to significant future price rises, especially given that he stated that DAN would move into profit in 2016 and comfortably be valued at 4-4.5p on normal market metrics. Being off market should also allow M&A to proceed more quickly. Being off-market could also lead to this share moving towards fair value more quickly, whilst the shorters will probably want to close out. I would guess that without the shorters this would probably now be around say 3p or so and may even have returned to 4p+. After M&A and a relisting RT suggested that 10p is fair value. When trading opens again (not sure when that would be) it would not be a surprise if this rose to say 2p to 3p. If I could buy any in that range when it is trading again I would think that would probably be pretty good value, with a target of say 10p in two years. Just my thoughts.
Per the QPE Twitter feed, Rob Terry has sold most of his shares in IMTK and bought as many shares as possible in Daniel Stewart.
It might sound unlikely but there does actually seem to be some positive momentum building here. It would seem likely that this will be delisted from AIM which is a real shame but I would suspect that in 1-2 years this will probably be relisted on the main market at a much higher value than at present as a stronger and larger business with shareholders gaining strongly. What appears to be the case is as follows: The company’s pipeline of business is improving, with it moving into new areas, growing its customer base and boosting its client development. It now has a strong financial basis after the recent fundraising which should support further growth Financial performance is predicted to improve strongly, with it moving into profit in the 2016/2017 financial year If the company is delisted, it will save considerably on the costs of being listed on the market and will also be able to proceed with merger and acquisition activity more quickly and cheaply Costs have been declining quite significantly Its largest shareholders are very supportive in terms of strategy, finance and more importantly in bringing new work to the company Rob Terry has been buying more shares. He may be slightly dodgy but he is certainly no fool and has an eye for making money. I very much doubt that he would be investing significant new funds here unless he was confident of a significant return. I suspect that when it is delisted there will be scare stories of how this is worth nothing or similar but I would think that it is worth holding onto these shares and probably acquiring more during the time off market. I suspect that when this moves into profit and especially when this is relisted then holders will be well rewarded. Just my thoughts
Agree that when there is a trigger this should rise quickly. In the absence of a trigger, it will probably meander and possibly drift slightly lower or maybe stay flattish. A trigger could be a move into profit (look at how Asos rocketed when it moved into profit many years ago) or Rob Terry buying more (e.g. June. November etc.). Smaller triggers could be new clients being won, repayment of the director's loan, new board members, a positive blog by RT or some other upbeat RNS. Conversely, bad news could send it lower, although with the way this has drifted in recent months the downside risk should be reducing. I am not holding these but if I were holding at this point I would probably be inclined to hold, at least until the next set of results. Rob Terry may be slightly dubious but (my opinion) he is no fool and he would not be investing in something unless he thought that there was a strong chance of making money. As regards Daniel Stewart, my view would be similar. The latest results were not great but Rob Terry recently tweeted that he still thinks that breakeven is feasible in the current year (to March 2016), suggesting a profitable second half of the year, and strengthening profits in the year commencing April 2016 with more work flowing to Daniel Stewart and imminent merger and acquisition activity. Again, I cannot verify any of this but it would seem that DAN are more inclined to engage with RT and his ideas (e.g. discussion of stock sale at 3.35p to third party, proposed M&A) than IMTK (who appear to be trying to distance themselves from RT to an extent). As before, my guess would be that both would be good investments over say a 1-2 year timeframe. I would guess that Rob Terry has a much better view of the future prospects of both of these companies having met with the management.
The issue here seems to be that whilst this company's prospects seem to undoubtedly be improving (for example, last set of results, new clients, repayment of one director's loan), Rob Terry seems to have stopped buying for now and, per his various blogs/Twitter/QPE website appears much more interested in Daniel Stewart and the progress there and buying more DAN shares. So, whilst on fundamentals the IMTK share price should be going up, due to Rob Terry's (probably temporary) cessation of buying, it is slowly drifting lower. However, looking at say the 1 year chart there appears to be a support level around 2-3p so I would guess that it would reach a bottom in the short term, probably in that kind of area. Medium term it should rise strongly, driven by a move into profit and possibly Rob Terry starting to buy again....but the key word is should. With the market nothing is certain and it also depends on the continued progress in the company's business. Also key would be Rob Terry's level of interest...this was the key driver behind DAN's rise (although that business is also supposedly strengthening in terms of fundamentals) and also initially behind IMTK (re end of June) and RT has said that he wants to buy more of those. I would guess that both DAN and IMTK will perform strongly in the medium term but short term is more difficult to say and with IMTK the short term trend is down for now.
From speaking to Daniel Stewart, the following appears to be the case: There was a disagreement between the board and the nomad on an unspecified matter. The board wanted to resolve the matter but the nomad did not want to negotiate and so left. This has left DAN in a bit of a mess. The concern seems not so much about finding a nomad, but rather finding one within the one month timeframe given the Christmas and new year holidays. DAN are on the job and working hard to find a new nomad and the intention (it appears) is to aim to appoint a new nomad within the one month. If this is not possible for any reason, then they will probably look to relist on a different exchange. My guess is that this would be ISDX which is similar to AIM. Their priority is to protect the valuation of shareholders' shares, with a return to AIM via finding a nomad the preference. In terms of the placing, this appears to be complete in terms of the funding being sourced but requires new shares to be admitted to AIM which cannot happen until the shares are relisted. The funds for the placing appear to have come from DAN's largest shareholders who are very supportive. There do not appear to be concerns around the performance of the business, and, although still loss-making, losses have reduced and new work has been coming. Reading between the lines here, this seems to stack up with what Rob Terry has been saying in his blogs and tweets, namely that the business is improving and strengthening. Whilst RT is certainly not a saint, it would seem that what he has been saying in relation to DAN and IMTK has been true. The placing also appears set to strengthen the balance sheet and will hopefully be the last placing, but even so does not appear to be massively dilutive to existing shareholders and seems to have resulted from the write-off of a bad debt during the finalisation of the accounts which left a capital shortfall, although it is hoped that this bad debt may be recovered. The focus here seems to be appointing a nomad in time, which they hopefully will be able to do. All this is just what I have gleaned...I do not work there so cannot present this as fact.
It seems that Zak Mir is suggesting an imminent upside leg on IMTK to over 10p in the near future.
Note that the QPE Twitter feed states that there will be an update next week.
Maybe time to buy before QPE update and interim results announcement in November which could show progress towards breakeven as indicated at the AGM?
Note that the QPE Twitter feed states that there will be an update next week.
With this stock, I would see the following: 1) Excellent client base in the UK and US with a number of high profile blue chip companies as clients 2) Significant numbers of client renewals (it seems that most clients are renewing with many on multi-year contracts) 3) Many new clients being added (I seem to remember reading from the annual report that client numbers approximately doubled last year from 20 something to 40 something), with the new CEO and his relationships helping to bring new clients, especially in the US 4) Improved financial results, especially in the latter half of the past financial year (much of the loss last year seems to be due to one-off FX losses) 5) A stated short-term target of breakeven which the directors believe is likely without additional funding being required, and then moving into profitability 6) The company seems to operate in a niche market which would seem likely to become much more valuable to clients going forward. On the downside, the company seems to have some cashflow issues, with the need for a director's loan/a previous share placing to meet working capital requirements whilst waiting for renewal fees to be paid. So, even ignoring Rob Terry/Quob Park Estate, it would seem that this is a high-potential business with a very strong client base that looks set to swing from loss to profit in the fairly near future which would itself suggest that an upward re-rating is likely. Aside from this, Rob Terry/Quob Park Estate has stated that he believes that the shares should at an absolute minimum be worth 20p and potentially much more. I am not saying that RT is a saint (far from it) or 100% trustworthy but it would seem that he does have a reasonably good eye for business opportunities and is investing significant amounts of money in the shares of this company. Moreover, he currently holds 14% and has openly stated that he plans to continue to buy until 29.99%. This should provide strong upward pressure on the share price going forward (or at least solid support), especially as the free float of available shares gets smaller which would also seem to be an upward driver of the share price. I also see that Zak Mir is suggesting that a strong upleg could be coming here. I am not quite sure what Rob Terry's plans are in terms of this investment but I am guessing that if he is investing heavily then he is highly likely to have some strong plans in place to maximise value and seems very confident that this stock would far exceed his 50% return on a price of 9p (i.e. far exceed 13.5p) in the fairly short term.