Member Info for inanaco

No Luck involved

This is it ....... IFNy (inflammatory cytokine) is detected from Functioning T cells which causes the cancer to retaliate with PD-1 expression ..

Interferon gamma (IFN?) is a dimerized soluble cytokine that is the only member of the type II class of interferons.[5] The existence of this interferon, which early in its history was known as immune interferon, was described by E. F. Wheelock as a product of human leukocytes stimulated with phytohemagglutinin, and by others as a product of antigen-stimulated lymphocytes

IFN? is produced predominantly by natural killer (NK) and natural killer T (NKT) cells as part of the innate immune response, and by CD4 Th1 and CD8 cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) effector T cells once antigen-specific immunity develops

In this study we have shown that although T cell infiltration resulting from SCIB1 DNA vaccination demonstrates proliferation and cytokine release it was also associated with increased levels of PD-L1 expression in the tumor microenvironment. Several published studies also indicate that the PD-L1 level within the tumor environment can be elevated by infiltrating activated T cells secreting IFN? [25, 26]. The expansion and function of infiltrating high avidity T cells induced by vaccination could be compromised within the tumor by upregulation of PD-1 and engagement with PD-L1 in the melanoma tumor microenvironment [26–28]. Upregulation of PD-L1 provides another obstacle in the path of vaccine induced anti-tumor T cells. Therefore, the combination of vaccines with blockade of PD-1/PD-L1 signaling may further benefit melanoma patients, especially for late stage disease.

so proof of function is IfN release

actual patient data

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Generation-of-IFNg-A-H-in-response-to-immunization-with-SCIB1-PBMC-were-isolated-at_fig1_323217427

Please ... give it a rest ...

If two clever people existed on this BB ... surely they would come out with the same outcome .. ?

I have never considered the cost of walking to a bank with a Royalty cheque at $400m ..

Have a good Easter ...

you are on your own !

ATB

that was not a debate that was me explaining what you posted did not make any sense ...

as i have already posted ... the $400m cost to walk to a bank ...

WE ... ?

we have done nothing together stop trying to associate yourself with me

your thoughts are your own ..

Thankyou

Have a good Easter ...

you are on your own !

ATB

Royalty

this is what Ruckrover wrote

Scancell receive a royalty of 17% = $493M

Scancell make a net profit overall of 20% = $98.7M = £76M

so he put .... $400 million of costs to scancell for issuing and administering a license with royalty income

??? LOL ..

royalty cheque arrives ... cost of taking to the bank = $400m

OMG

I do not want to debate you ...

You did not research PE industry averages
You have Not researched sales to profitability profit ratios in this sector
YOU did not understand license agreements indeed you put cost of sales against royalties
YOU have not explained "advanced royalties"

If folks what to discuss your form of garbage .. that is ok with me ... carry on

but leave me out of it .. cheers

Ruckrover

show the post that i have used your numbers ?

you keep saying PE of 10 is mine ..

what i can tell you commercial property is valued on a PE of 10

i do not recognize your numbers that you keep claiming are mine

which is why i keep telling you to leave me out of your rants ,.,,,

THIS IS YOUR POST NOT MINE BELOW

I think it's a fair assumption that the first 4 or 5 products will have to be licenced, Scancell just don't have the funds to do it themselves.

I'm not factoring in a licence deal, a deal is simply an advance on future royalties. I'm trying to get an idea of what Scancell might be worth when the products are on the market (under license) around 2024/2025.

The calculation is simple, so take Melanoma as an example:

2024 market estimated at $14.1B.

A 20% market share gives $2.8B in sales revenue.

Scancell receive a royalty of 17% = $493M

Scancell make a net profit overall of 20% = $98.7M = £76M

On a PE of 10, that gives a market value of £760M or £1.96 per share (388M shares)

Allowing for 100% dilution (a lot of cash needed before 2024) = 98p /share.

As I said, the calculation is very straightforward what we can debate is the numbers and assumptions I have used:

Market $14B (2024)
Market share 20%
Royalties 17.5%
Net Profit 20%
PE Ratio 10 (could be higher if there were other products on the way)
Dilution factor 100% (I think it could well be much higher)

Exchange rate £1 = $1.30 (Brexit could affect this drastically)

Just trying to apply some science to the numbers rather than pluck a figure out the air. If you want to throw some of your own numbers in I'll recalculate the price.

SCLPlatest numbers24 Jan '19
Merck's results for Keytruda in melanoma were released Sunday during the annual meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research. ... Bristol-Myers currently earns between 14% and 20% of its U.S. sales of Opdivo from the drug's indication in melanoma, while roughly 15% of Keytruda sales come from that cancer type.16 Apr 2018

Keytruda sales surged 89.2 percent to $1.67 billion. per Qtr ... so x 4 for 1 year

so just in melanoma ... thats a $b dollar market ... for keytruda

and opdivo ... is about the same .........

so that's a $2b market already created from a standing start in melanoma ... of which scancell could increase the efficacy in at least 45% (hla restrictions) of that market by doubling efficacy ...

so SCIB1 has a proven market of at least $1b ,,,,,, because that is the price of failure of PD-1 ... ie that 25 to 30% success in patients gives us a 70% failure rate .. which is paid for by hospitals and scancell reduces that number substantially if it gives the efficacy ...

and here we are, about to enter into trials ... with a Mcap of £30m ... with a possible sales market of a $1b ....and that is based on actual figures generated by PD1 ... not forecasts, but real $

all we have to do is show synergy .. that % differential is what drives the pricing structure ...

No not up for a row, just Rucks keeps claiming this PE number of 10 as mine when he actually used it, I only use a 10 x multiplier for rents to asset value

stock market PE ratio are all over the place,

Uber could be worth $100b but has never made a profit ...

Please don't compare my posts of values to Ruck .. a reminder of some of my posts on the 24th jan

Nothing has changed he is still boring me senseless

SCLPRE: what the market does not24 Jan '19
Ruck you are boring me senseless ............

The industry profit figures include all the current Research and expenditure figures ...

we are valuing just the commercial element of SCIB1 .... at phase 2 based on a market potential of a $1b in sales

i really don't need your help ........ as from your posts you thought the industry worked on a 5% profit margin !!! you had not even bothered to research ..

i really am not sure what you are trying to achieve .. ?? you confuse people because of your lack of commercial awareness

advance royalties ?

we are not writing a novel .. Ruck

I am trying to prove we are worth far more than 5p on SCIB1 alone.
I think I have done that don’t you?

i will accept that ... can we leave it now !

Ruck .. leave me out of it ...

please

easy to dig out my responses with Moljen agreeing with me ..

which included the Pfizer pe numbers

do you want that or should we just call it a day .. on the "ruckrover valuation"

as explained i dont read your posts .. what for, if you did not understand Royalties how can you ever post as

a "commercial valuation"

so not sure what you are trying to do .,.. and indeed what you are trying to prove ?

Rather than trying to pass all this off as your own work ? would you like me to posts your garbage from ADFVN ..

so this is your work ... you posted that the royalties generated would have cost of £400m applied to them ??

and Moljen and myself shot you to pieces .. this is your posted suggested 10 PE ratio ....

----------------------- Rucks post-----------------below

I think it's a fair assumption that the first 4 or 5 products will have to be licenced, Scancell just don't have the funds to do it themselves.

I'm not factoring in a licence deal, a deal is simply an advance on future royalties. I'm trying to get an idea of what Scancell might be worth when the products are on the market (under license) around 2024/2025.

The calculation is simple, so take Melanoma as an example:

2024 market estimated at $14.1B.

A 20% market share gives $2.8B in sales revenue.

Scancell receive a royalty of 17% = $493M

Scancell make a net profit overall of 20% = $98.7M = £76M

On a PE of 10, that gives a market value of £760M or £1.96 per share (388M shares)

Allowing for 100% dilution (a lot of cash needed before 2024) = 98p /share.

As I said, the calculation is very straightforward what we can debate is the numbers and assumptions I have used:

Market $14B (2024)
Market share 20%
Royalties 17.5%
Net Profit 20%
PE Ratio 10 (could be higher if there were other products on the way)
Dilution factor 100% (I think it could well be much higher)

Exchange rate £1 = $1.30 (Brexit could affect this drastically)

Just trying to apply some science to the numbers rather than pluck a figure out the air. If you want to throw some of your own numbers in I'll recalculate the price.

I have not suggested anything so don't post on my behalf thanks ..

this debate has already happened on adfvn .. with Ruck .. he suggested 10 x earnings

your reply ref Pfizer was my reply on that BB to Ruck

when somebody suggests i have said something .. you do not know if they are right !
so please don't just assume Thank you

I am not teaching Rucks kids maths ...

even if i did post ..."""How did you get to £3B valuation from earnings of £300M?""

the maths would be so so so simple

so imagine trying to explain to an uneducated baby Ruck what a number is ... OMG