Member Info for IlIllIlI

Glad I made so many of you laugh yesterday morning with news I'd reallocated some ARB to Greggs. Good results out today. I'm 3% up including fees. Still have plenty of ARB but goes to show sizing is everything. GLA

Bought years ago at an average of 192, sold for 265. Even at the time I knew I'd regret it. Bought back in yesterday, will add on dips and hold forever. I just wish they'd make a new Alien Breed 3D game!

Honestly these results were better than I expected. Hopefully they'll expand drive-through options. That digital channel growth looks good and we can measure it moving forward. Looking forwards to the new app.

Eisenhorn comes across very much as an Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D moment for the lore in general. I see this more as a new Marvel than a game retailer long term.

1st two, eventually. 3rd, not so much as they're at different growth stages.

So it begins. I've talked about reallocation and sizing before as a means of managing risk. Thought I'd elaborate on what I've done this morning here.

My ARB position grew massively to be my largest position and I held on. I had no plan for the 2nd dilution and it rattled me. Actually what rattles me is a company that expects shareholders to cover it's working capital. I understand the justifications but the CEO's direction is clearly not aligned with mine so it's time to reduce my holding.

I've started selling off. I'll sell as the price goes up. For those interested I've opened small positions in Piri, Mode and Greggs. This isn't a recommendation for any of them. Piri is a small short term Pluto play. Smaller mcap, proportionately larger Pluto holding. If the IPO goes well Piri's SP should move more than ARB's. Mode is a challenger-banking-type app featuring open banking integration, a really nice merchant integration and a stellar CTO and Commercial officer. There's a BTC element to the business but that's not what attracts me. Greggs I just think is an excellently run company with lots of long-term potential. Again, these are not recommendations do not blindly buy anything because of anything you read on a forum. I still have argo, I will look to cut my holding back over the next couple of months to around 20% of my pf where it's movements will affect me less. I think the easy money in ARB has been made. There's still more to come, maybe a 4-8x depending on developments but I'd rather reallocate to be less affected by the whims of a CEO unrepentant about surprise dipping into my pocket to pay to keep the lights on instead of using the company's own money.

@bullmarket it's not what I consider relevant, it's what each individual person finds important. Macro factors help explain why things have happened and what *might* happen under continuing circumstances. But they don't tell us what will definitely happen. I tend to find long-term moving averages, MACD and RSI informative but some people will prefer things like stock-to-flow or really complicated ones.

A while back I mentioned counting gann squares to find possible BTC price ranges for example. That's good for reassurance in the crash. It's always best to include 'if this doesn't match the plan then x' in the plan. I got caught on ARB because I didn't have a plan for a short-term move of that magnitude even though I'm as calm as a hindu cow over my actual coins.

@RacingCyclist - I get what you're saying but we have macro indicators to assist. There's a world of difference between an expected 30% dip and losing key support in a declining trend. If OP can't handle that (and clearly they can't) crypto is not the asset for them, nor anything linked to it. I just thought I'd drop in Freeman-Schorr as it's a damned good book OP should probably read.

No. Nobody can forecast Pluto's SP because there isn't sufficient publicly available information on which to build a clear forecast. There are some documents referenced in updates from PIRI that can be used to imply some figures but it's not enough to conclude.

I'm just using your model to point out the inverse case for that model. Do not confuse your model for reality.

If your model uses 9.9% to represent the bar for whether an action constitutes a good decision, then the only thing that matters is whether a method would yield >9.9% over the same period. Knowing what we know about sentiment shift, outflows and price action in ARB and BTC we know the market cap would've remained around the same (worst case) or would've had less downward pressure if sentiment shifted.

The land in Texas already had an RNS. There was a prior vote for an issue. That raise had time to be priced in. The RNSes that came out of the blue after closing were not to do with Texas land. They were for "boots on the ground" to quote PW.

I don't know the basis upon which you draw the conclusion of £4 but if that represents a > 99 million increase in mcap then that satisfies your model's bar. If it satisfies an mcap higher than what was raised then it implies it's a better idea within your model. There are other ways to raise money that you haven't listed. Just don't confuse your model for reality.

Bitcoin's price rises at lower levels are driven by reduced supply following halvenings. Post halvening Bitcoin rises through several consolidation phases before a parabolic rise (which we're in now) and blow-off top. If the rise ends at some point this year (which short of something unprecedented it will) there is no catalyst to propel BTC out of retracement to over $500k next March.

Under some circumstances ARB may partially resist the downward price pressure from BTC collapsing but you can't get the upside without the downside. When BTC's price collapses, ARB's price will go down with it. If you're an LTBH you need to think about what range that bottom might be in and identify a price based on assets held during that bottom, not a possible top. Then you can decide if you want to hold through the decline or at what point you want to get off.

Instead of worrying about being in the red, build a plan to scale out on losses and execute the plan. Don't think about it. Make this an automatic thing. You'll sleep better for it.

In Lee Freeman-Schorr's The Art of Execution, he uses 20% as an automatic stop. From here a share needs to go up 25% to break even. At -33% it's 50%. At -50% you need to double to regain your original position.

You can aim to re-enter at the lower end of an uptrend and set new stops if you're serious about staying in ARB. Capital protection is king. If it's too much hassle, close out and plan a new entry with a reasonable allocation. There'll be other opportunities in the future, no need to go all in.

By the same maths, that's 90 million pounds or 9.9% increase to get back to the original market cap, or alternatively had we not diluted could have been 99 million added, disregarding what might have happened if there hadn't been the sentiment shift in the past week resulting from how it was all handled. If more than 99 million was raised it was indeed the right thing to do.

Funnily enough, my numbers were a bit different but close enough to show Argo acted like leveraged BTC at the time (recent decouple notwithstanding). That was what brought me in first tbh.

If it makes you more comfortable you did the right thing. Hopefully you're now allocated at a size that works for you.

I've noticed a people in other spaces claiming that the Symmetric Triangle on the daily chart is a bull flag and thought I'd just chip in. Symmetric triangles are consolidation points signified by two lower highs and two higher lows usually caused by contracting order volumes. When a breakout happens a decent stop is the height of the triangle at the widest point above or below the triangle.

Often a triangle will continue an existing trend, but this isn't guaranteed. If I wasn't already in I'd wait for a breakout before deciding which way to go. If you are it's worth thinking about how to react to either outcome. This can go either way and it can be quite sudden when it breaks. This is why it's worth planning sooner because if you don't have one and it doesn't go the way you expect you may have difficulty especially with outsized positions.

If I was more the hodler type and strongly believed in ARB's long term prospects, *and* was properly positioned I'd sit tight. I have cash available so if it breaks to the downside good buying zones could be around 205p, 190p and 160p. If it breaks to the upside, good targets for rebalancing could be around 310p and 340p. For me upside confirmation is crossing 280p with lots of buy orders and RSI below 80. I don't see anything indicating a bull trap but that's why they're called traps and not signs. If we drop below 151 I'll cut the full position and probably rejoin when I see ARB cross 300 but I don't expect this to happen, it's just an if-then idea.

If I didn't believe in ARB at all I'd sell out sooner to sleep better at night. If you like holding ARB but like me are over-positioned think about what you'll do drop or rise, write it down, stick to whichever gameplan applies and limit any potential losses.

Bearish indicators are not being able to cross over 10 and 20 day MAs, hugging the triangle bottom and the 10-20 MA cross. Bullish indicators are the RSI bottoming out and underpriced narrative building. If we can stay here till the new tax year, we could see a break up as people funnel new money into ISAs. I'm not a TA wizard or anything like that. I could be wrong about something or everything in this comment, DYOR and GLA.

Thanks. Please do remember anything I say is just an opinion and try to make the time to go through the data yourselves. I try to keep things factual where I can but I'm only (barely) human.

@RacingCyclist - best thing to do is turn on Gann squares on tradingview and look at the BTC monthly chart. Count the squares up and along for each run and look at some of the other charts showing the flattening curve as BTC appreciates. That should give you an idea of what to expect. Nothing is guaranteed but it explains the market's rhyming. The Benjamin Cowen video I referenced earlier is very similar.

Timescale-wise some indicators I use (Pi-Cycle top indicator for example) suggest we may top in the next 2-3 months around 70-100k if Januaries action resumed soon. I'm still holding out for a good 30% pullback for more consolidation back towards the 20MA. If we get that my next stop is June/July or September/October but it's too early.

@Longshot12 - Traditionally Bitcoin sees pullbacks of 70-90%. It was close to 85% in the prior bear. I'm a big follower of Ray Dalio's cycle theory of economics for commodities in general. Bob Loukas is one of the calmer heads in the crypto space. I'm watching a vid now with him and Benjamin Cowen where they talk about Bitcoin cycles called, "Collaboration with Bob Loukas: Bitcoin's Market Cycles". Everyone has a narrative but Bob's fits Bitcoin's performance fairly well. Just remember that cycles are about understanding prior bottoms, not future tops.

@Herdie - If he was trying to do that there are two issues:

1. Argo's core business is crypto mining. Anything he buys into is not core business. Gold miners don't buy jewellers. It would've been more consistent with Argo's core to buy Yop or stake Argo's tokens on Yop (or BlockFi/whatever) than invest in Pluto directly. That they haven't made reference to staking their own coins confuses the heck out of me. I don't understand why they wouldn't. It's leaving 5-8% yields on the table.

2. Pluto is diversification from mining but not from crypto. Pluto will have a great run up in the bull run but it'll be kryptonite in the bear. If they wanted to diversify they should be looking at companies that are integrating or have integrated crypto but aren't reliant on it, such as Square, Paypal, Tesla or smaller equivalents, or even gold. Diversification isn't about mad gains, it's about wealth protection.

On the gold point Bitcoin is marketed as a store of value. Some institutions rotating into Bitcoin use money normally earmarked for gold. I suspect when the bear comes there will be a rapid institutional rotation back into cash and possibly gold.

Over the next 3-9 months I'm positioned for several mania mini-phases with a blow-off top at the end. If things run up too quickly that top will come in early and we're not far from the timing band. I think $70k if we top early, $320k if we make the full run is reasonable. I'm out of BTC at $200k, my position doesn't need more and I'd rather sell when everyone's buying.

Sentiment shifts rapidly at the top, BTC will lose steam and everyone will be talking bout alts. As the returns switch to alts, focus shifts, BTC gets squeezed and there'll be a big uptick in alt to btc pairs before the whole thing collapses and people are left wondering why they can't sell their coins marketed as "the future of dentistry economics".

There are some really great videos from Crypto Bobby on Youtube around Dec 2017-Jan 2018 where you can see the bubble bursting and it's impact.

Bears are always horrible. I lost most of my BTC and LTC in the MtGox fiasco but the last one felt just as bad. I'd expect BTC to lose between 60-80% of price and drag everythign else down with it. Alts are hammered on sentiment more. In that situation Pluto will be kryptonite. Argo will suffer no matter what but Pluto's bear will also be Argo's bear. Again, staking and hedging with gold is smart. Maybe that's in the pipeline, who knows. Investing in Pluto is great for amplifying bull performance but it's only going to make the fall bigger.

@Kozzi just wow. That's a joke, right?