Member Info for IDoMyBest

"It is estimated that the size of the Proposed Class across the Claim Period is around 2.31 million individuals,

with the BT Voice Only sub-class estimated at around 1.23 million and the BT Split Purchase sub-class

estimated at around 1.08 million."

OK, So I understand that they have better prospects of a win on the split purchase part, given OFCOM somewhat let them off on that issue.

"Split purchase service is probably the largest part of the litigation claim, at least half or more. "

Well it appears to be the smaller part, but admittedly not by much.

Regardless, it is close to half of the claim.

Thanks...... ;-)

"Split purchase service is probably the largest part of the litigation claim, at least half or more. "

If so that would likely temper my view somewhat.

Source, please?

Look, I'm happy to be put right on this matter, as I still hold over 80,000 shares in BT (have already sold half into the rise), and think it a decent investment at the current price. It is simply that It could be an even better one after they deal with the case.

Well, as stated I bought back in, a few @ -2.5%, a few @ -3.5% and my last buy @-4.2%

Currently holding a few less than I held (before selling) yesterday.

Will see how the day goes, but looking unlikely that it will crater.... ;-)

...and they did just beat the estimates.

Read it for yourself.....

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/107322/standalone-landline-statement.pdf

No, I decided to spend a quiet Saturday morning trying to find out more about the case.

Simply put, BT said one thing in the Annual R&A, and OFCOM said something else.

IMHO, BT was less than candid.

The R&A comment of note.....

"Ofcom’s final statement made no finding of excessive pricing or breach of competition law more generally. The claim seeks to hold against us the fact that we implemented a voluntary commitment to reduce prices for customers that have a BT landline only and not to increase those prices beyond inflation (CPI)."

The OFCOM comment of note.....

"In our February consultation, we proposed regulated price reductions and a requirement for BT to

work with us to encourage their customers to consider what better deals were available.

We have now received an offer from BT that matches our proposed regulation for voice-only

consumers. Here we set out our consideration of BT’s offer."

Whilst they BT stated one thing, clearly OFCOM stated quite another.

You make your own mind up, but I can now see why that a panel thought BT did have something to answer for.

Hence my view has changed.

Flip flopped, please do show me where I flip flopped.

I changed my mind on Saturday, sold shares yesterday and mentioned it, sold more today. I have now sold half of my holding. Will likely sell the rest on Thursday.

May as well take a chance on the figures. Unlikely that case will be decided in the next few days.

Will certainly buy back after case is decided.

FYI, I bought in about two weeks ago, this weekend I found out something that has changed my mind,. So I have sold half of my holding into the recent rise.

Still holding a few in case figures lift the price further, will likely then sell the rest.

In short I do not want to be holding if they lose that case, and I think they will. The potential liability being in excess of 1 billion.

If you want to know the details of what I found just look at my posts over the weekend, when I went from being positive about case to negative.

The yield on BT is very high (due to the meteroric fall in share price), it is currently not far short of the highest div in the FT100. The FT100 is circa 3.5%, BT is more than double that.

Given its huge and growing debt pile, they are 'effectively' funding the dividend with debt. It would therefore seem to make sense to reduce it to typical FTSE yields of 3.5%.

VOD cut its yield today and plans to cut it further next year, didn't seem to hurt the share price.

The brief opinion piece from Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-14/burberry-brby-sales-expected-to-decline-as-brand-revival-falters

Well I run my ruler over this yesterday, and bought, bought some more first thing today.

My aim was to take a chance on a turnaround, decent dividend, perhaps takeover.

But after the hit 3.8% up circa 30 minutes ago, and Bloomberg were suggesting another lousy trading period.

I decided to bank the profit, I may pile in tomorrow if Bloomberg are correct. If not, I’ll console myself with my very quick in/out profit.

Best of luck if you hold.

Sub £1 is certainly possible, all it would take is another dodgy set of numbers, and/or a negative result in the competition case.

Waiting for decision at the moment, could cost BT well in excess of 1Bn, that's about 10% of current market cap.

That said, I'm happy to see today's rise ahead of figures, and I am taking advantage of it to take a bit of cash off the table.

Re landline, you still make landline calls?

re mail client, you do realise there are plenty of other mail clients you can use.

re the crackling hissing line, that will soon resolved when you are moved over to a digital line (i.e. IP telephony).

NEXT.....

For information that limit I mentioned is 30%

RE: Drahi

Given debt issues with his other companies, it is IMHO unlikely that he will buy more BT shares, also he is very close to the limit he can buy without being forced to make an offer (or reduce stake) for BT.

Market seems to think it's more likely that he will reduce stake, but he states otherwise.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13304289/Debt-ridden-Patrick-Drahi-wont-hang-BT.html

Me, I’d start to cash out at circa 130p, and be all out at circa 150p.

One is the most recent high, the other is the year high.

Fleccy

Re your Keynes quote.....

It reminded me regards the Nikkei Index. It hit a high in October of 1989...........it took circa 35 years to make a new high, in January of 2024.

I seem to recall BT once hit a high of over £10, during the dot.com boom. Mind you that price was irrational.

Well, I sold my HSBA shares...

1. They hit a year high (I almost always sell).

2. I only bought them after the circa 10% drop that happened in Feb.

https://www.ft.com/content/05177d82-ac3b-4108-a958-e49bd482adcd

Started at under 600p, managed to collect the full year dividend and later sold them for 660p.

I sold way too early (now 700p)......fortunately BT has pretty much held at the price I paid those few weeks ago.

"John Maynard Keynes said that markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent, fortunately I can stay solvent longer than the market can remain irrational."

Well I'm also 'in' and with a substantial holding. I am also a former BT employee (with Global Services), and yes I believe that at current levels they offer really good value.

But more importantly to me, the rest of the market has risen strongly and I have decided to sell and seek a bargain and one that is still currently paying quite a high yield. I am aware of the risks, but the potential reward seems well worth it.

The issue is, that BT were told that OFCOM would seek to take enforcement action to reduce the price by £5-£7.

BT then volunteered to reduce, thus preventing OFCOM from carrying out that enforcement action.

In short, OFCOM put a gun to their head.

If I had such a gun to my head, I'd not describe handing over the cash as volunteering. ;-)

Https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0014/107321/standalone-landline-evidence.pdf

Evidence supporting the last statement I posted.