RE: Potential upside if all goes to plan13 Feb 2021 15:06
I also fully agree with Starbuck's analysis. I'll just comment on the points raised by Mambamentality and Mitch984...
Firstly, Sirius was/is a different mineral: polyhalite, marketable as 'poly4', has a much lower potassium component. Also it was DEEP (1500m I think). Kore is one of the shallowest deposits, and a much higher potassium grade. (I was briefly in SXX, but got put off by the tortuous planning procedures).
Secondly, Congo-Brazzaville has a legal system with some similarities to French law. In December, I was concerned about the issues surrounding iron ore mining, so did some research, which gave me greater understanding (for example, the country dependence on O&G, and its determination on the mining front). A useful website giving official decrees is https://www.sgg.cg/fr/journal-officiel/le-journal-officiel.html
Thirdly, and most importantly, In January I contacted the KP2 company: I got a very good and full response, and I'm sure they won't mind me suggesting that other substantial shareholders should also contact them. Obviously, they cannot reveal anything not already in the public domain, but it was worth doing.
Finally, Align Research is a useful site, but I accept the point that they are an interested party. It is worth looking also at Shore Capital research note October 2020, which was done for a different potash company: figures 1, 3 and 4 especially relevant to Kore.