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Yes, the published moroccan process for appeals from the regional investment committee to the ministerial investment committee says that they must rule within 30 days, as per the text below.

Next Sunday is a calendar month roughly from the RNS so the decision would be expected around next week if it follows process. The text is clear, what’s not clear is whether the 30 days is set down in law or what EML could do if the process isn’t followed but that’s the process.

What I think Graham could do well is to use this time to get an investment from the Government or, better still the Akwa Group which is CEO’d by the Prime Minister (ex-agriculture minister) and active in Oil and Gas. Get them in at 2p, approve the ESIA and the share price effectively quadruples and we’re back in the position that we should have been (government holding a share) but could not have been at a higher share price. Government ownership or material local investors will make finance a LOT easier.

Compare BritishVolt - independent and dumped by UK govt over £30m - and the JLR gigafactory, getting £500m because it was part of something wider.

Banks will take a lot of comfort from knowing that the govt will be on board and want to approve any further permits and extensions because that goes to EMLs ability to pay.

I’d imagine the share price is dropping so not because of the sales of themselves but a drying up of the market by market makers, who either don’t want to be left holding or want to be left holding but only a price that gets the shares free or nearly free, which they can do by dropping the price they’ll give to increase spread - ends up with a downward ladder.

That said, I’m a little surprised by the extent. In planning, lots of commercial supermarkets, developments, etc. are refused at first instance and approved on appeal. Yes, it is less certain but the only trouble is that we don’t know the government’s mind - it probably knows already if it will approve or not.

We may yet see an uptick from traders because the decision is due next week if it follows process. Will be a very very big uplift for anyone left holding at 2p as it will surely go to at least 8p - this is not investment advice, just saying that opportunists often arise. Would be a great meme stock for sure - oh dear! Ha ha.

“the investor may lodge an appeal before the Ministerial Commission, which rules within a period not exceeding 30 days”



Taken from the regional investment commission.

Chanced across the deck below with a timeline of the ESIA to date on page 13/14.

For info only:

https://emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/EML-Corporate-Presentation-Feb23-02.02.23.pdf#page=14

Very helpful G_G_G, agree fully.

If they believed their hype, they wouldn’t have published that the decision had been ‘referred’!

I don’t easily see it being withholdable as a “matter in the course of negotiation”, because it’s a complete first instance decision and the appeal is a separate module.

Agree it’s tricky to stick or twist. While inadequate, the director buys do give the impression that they think it will go through and many things do on appeal. The bigger question is whether they are deluded.

Will be interesting to hear more from Beyondthesea’s journalistic friend.

Below should be “waste water”

Also query if water water is enough:

“ The government wants to raise renewable energy to 52% of installed power capacity from 38% by 2030 and is also pushing for an increase in desalination to help cities and agriculture cope with the impact of years of drought.

State-owned OCP has said it plans to rely entirely on desalinated water for industrial operations by 2027 and it told Reuters it will launch tenders early next year to expand desalination capacity at Safi and Jorf Lasfar on the Atlantic.”

Desalination is expensive. What supply deals could be done with OCP, if we were on good speaking terms?

Graham can still presumably offer a share.

Oil & Gas operates in territory on a 25% (gov) / 75% (company) basis. Could well be that the law only anticipated oil and gas (though would be poorly written) and really everyone expects the same across the board. If so, it would have been Rupert’s best suited role to find this out and advise.

Westie, you’ve been a staunch EML defender.

For interest, what’s your latest assessment?

The subject of ‘how long?’, looks like the standard process is 30 days, so shouldn’t for example be next year, etc.

“the investor may lodge an appeal before the Ministerial Commission, which rules within a period not exceeding 30 days”

Taken from the regional investment commission.

Echoing G_G_G, consider complaining to the London Stock Exchange that there hasn't been adequate disclosure under rule 17 of the AIM rules, copying Liberum Capital Limited (our NOMAD, as regulator-fear is a greater rocket than private investors can muster and it might produce quicker results, especially on mass:

"The Exchange’s AIM Regulation team considers complaints or enquiries as regards the conduct of AIM companies and nominated advisers in respect of their compliance with the AIM Rules for Companies and for

Nominated Advisers, and can be contacted via email to

aimregulation@lseg.com."

Sources:

AIM rules for EML

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/AIM%20Rules%20for%20Companies%20%2801012021%29_1.pdf

The relevant information that has changed and that has not been updated with appropriately clarity and timelines is that the AIM prospectus marked this area as low risk and scheduled to take three months, several years ago. Had this been a grater rush then it would have been listed on the prospectus risk register with planned remediations and further detail. As stands, we lack the basic information to make effective investment decisions and as such the level of disclosure represents or is causing a regulatory market failure because investment cannot operate on an informed basis, as the rules envisage.

AIM rules for our NOMAD

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/AIM%20Rules%20for%20Nominated%20Advisers%20%2801012021%29.pdf

Liberum Capital Limited contacts:

FAO Scott Mathieson /

William King via info@liberum.com

A single bull of email going to the LSE and copying Liberum and EML’s standard email address would be relatively low effort and high impact in driving a response.

Puzzler, I think the difference is that the mining licence is, to my understanding, granted by one authority and this committee comprises a range of authorities, which might each have disparate interests - no doubt quite a public affairs challenge to align them all, depending on the given topic.

May be good advice.

Will it help your trading position if people sell wessley?

Will re-read with that context.

Thanks and understood / appreciated.

That’s interesting.

I’m understanding it to be like a UK local planning authority committee would be for property development. Thirty odd people sit around the table and vote, if they don’t pass it, it’s not approved and the developer (here EML) has appealed.

You’re saying perhaps, in the language, they literally don’t have capacity to approve it. Not sure but I think it’s the RNS that’s misleading in this case because it’s a Committee intended to streamline / funnel all regional investment. Will have a look at that.

(If there’s any shirtiness in the comment below, retracting that as as not intended)

I think it is effectively Chisler; approval requires a majority of the Committee, a majority didn’t approve so the motion didn’t pass. EML has appealed the decision.

As to the other comment below, thanks for the newsflash. If it wasn’t obvious, the purpose of the ‘supposition’ is to consider if and why it would be any different on appeal. Crystal ball needed for anything more!

Great thanks, so the ‘new’ bit I’m seeing is:

“We view this as a positive development, in that the Ministerial Committee is chaired by Morocco’s Prime Minster and includes several government ministers. In other words, this is a body that should be willing and able to act swiftly and decisively in consideration of Morocco’s strategic national interest and international investment image.”

Helpful, thanks.

The regional investment committee was a large group, looks like up to 30 representatives, so I can see that getting a majority could fall fowl to nimby opposition.

https://www.rabatinvest.ma/qui-sommes-nouss/#1674049427009-ca949b61-4a90

That said, the committee chair is already the head of the government, so where does it top out? Do they say, "this is a local matter" and step back, is it of national value (if so, why not hurried through two years ago?) or do they all buy quite a few shares now and sign off next week for a x6-7 return?!

Whole thing seems hugely strange, just as we don't seem to be proposing any extra concessions when going to appeal to learn from and changes. If I'm not mistaken, the land was sold by the government for mining in the first place so, if that's right, what's the problem with it now?!

The Regional Investment Committee has been in place since around 2018 so I'm massively surprised that it's been reportedly more than neutral positive support before now and then we get rejected at Committee after a two year wait?!

Thanks RLL93, are you saying that a closed access research note reported that the Regional Investment Committee had rejected the application at local level as at 9 January 2023?

With the implication that:

- this has not been publicly reported in RNS for over six months;

- the information might reasonably have been known to yesterdays big sellers before market opening as at that time; and

- the Ministerial Committee hasn’t met in this during the following six months?

Is that all correct as to what you're saying?

It's been an interesting day also in that it's been fairly horizontal.

Market makers made up 25% of the drop before opening, with a 'just' further 7% coming about in actual trading (of course, we don't know what was dumped onto them to offload before open, but curious a relatively little proportion of change happened in day).

Numbers

**********

Closed at 3.60p yesterday, opened at 2.70p this morning and closed at 2.45p.

Sold Value £380.88k (16,723,964)

Bought value £396.19k (17,126,353)

We’ll need to see the buys coming in to link that, Matador.

Might have been liberem, strategic investors leaving, as doesn’t seem to have gone through the standard private investor process.