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“I think the point wyndrum is making is that adverse and unexpected events have happened in the history of the company. Potential for failure and adverse events needs to be kept in mind when looking forward also.”
What a load of BS. That doesn’t answer why he’s constantly bringing up the past on this BB everyday. Where were these warnings of failure when he was gambling on HE1. Totally agenda driven based on the latest gambling position.
Why would anyone buy shares in a company based off of a BB. It’s fun to bounce off ideas etc from people that are actually researched and like minded. However If you are buying shares based on comments here and not doing any research at all based on your level of risk appetite then you are crazy. 🤪
Truthfully I don’t get why anyone would be on this BB if they didn’t expect Avacta to succeed and get FDA approval. Bella had the correct idea I would also like to thank all these people trying to warn us things can go horribly wrong. 😊 To answer your question Timster, reading between the lines (loads of lines) windy got some investment here, however it’s been reduced over time and he thinks the science is more complex than what Avacta are making out and we still have significant risks. However he still hopes it comes good.
Will correct you I’m not assuming anything, I am here because I believe the data presented so far makes the COS of FDA approval more likely than not and that gives a good opportunity to invest for the long-term, based on my risk and return assessment. If I am wrong so be it, won’t have any regrets.
What I don’t get Windy is you say you have concerns with the science etc, it’s more complicated etc. doesn’t FDA approval completely solve these issues. Hence going full circle to my original point, it’s a pretty simple concept.
Windy this is a pointless discussion. No one really knows how much Avacta will be worth on FDA approval of AVA6000. Big Pharma will have a good idea though. The general consensus is with a more targeted less toxic version of Dox you would assume the old current Dox would be made redundant over time. Especially considering they could potentially administer 2-3 times more cycles and give it to patients that can’t handle the current toxicity of Dox now. Is AVA6000 a billion dollar plus drug on approval?. I would say yes it is. Does this lead on to other potential drugs in the pipeline? I would say yes it does. Current mkt cap is what 180million odd give or take. Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out if a company has an approved billion dollar plus drug a year and a potential drug platform in the making the Mkt cap won’t be 180 million odd. It’s going to be way north of that. Not getting into specific scenarios with a magic calculator. Just purely on the facts of less toxicity more cycles this will substantially increase Avacta mkt cap. That’s obviously imo you may think differently. However you haven’t actually presented any facts on potential revenues etc yourself on approval. You are just concentrating on past events, again I will ask you this question directly, why are you here if you don’t believe Avacta can deliver?
I have invested in Avacta based on the tech as I believe it will eventually get approved by the FDA, the risk profile to potential returns far outweighs the potential to lose all my investment here, this is early stage bio,(which I am prepared to do) every investment can sometimes go wrong (didn’t say otherwise that’s obvious if you DYOR), however based on the pre clinical data, exceptional safety data in humans, the biopsy data, and the fact Dox kills cancer cell's it looks good so far. The only thing I need to do is wait till Avacta goes through the trials with the FDA and as long as the results are coming in and we get approval to move to the next stage it will come to it’s inevitable conclusion (good or bad). If your hypothetical scenario comes up in an RNS saying going to be huge delays based on xyz etc then I will look again at the risk and reward potential and make a decision accordingly. For the moment we have been told they plan commercialism 2026 and we are going to start phase 2 dose expansion H2. What Avacta has done in the past doesn’t concern me, it also didn’t concern the institutional investors that gave Avacta 26 million odd the 34% discount been wiped out by the market so can’t say they got in cheap short term. All I care about is the facts in the here and now via the RNS system. Again if you don’t believe Avacta will deliver why are you invested? That’s a question people need to ask themselves.
Windy I’m a little confused, again we have a projected timeline for AVA6000 commercialisation 2026, it won’t be 10 or 15 years. I could totally understand if the drug was in pre clinical with no end in sight, however it’s now in humans and the ball is rolling to its inevitable conclusion. It will either get approved or it won’t. This 10-15 year discussion you have created is hypothetical micro BS. You either believe this is going to get approved or you don’t. If you don’t believe not sure why you are even here and invested in the first place tbh. As I said you can try trade this but that’s not investing that’s gambling.
DTW, good points I would say that Avacta number 1 objective now is doing what the FDA tell them to maximise approval, if the FDA says jump we say how high even if they have to change plans, it’s that important they get this approved. Avacta know once they do get this approved, the share price will take care of itself as they get global market exposure. Of course this all depends if the data continues to hold up, no reason to think that it won’t.
Who said I was talking about you Windy. No matter what dilution occurs imo FDA approval will completely re-rate things, you only need to look at the average drugs mkt cap per year of other oncology drugs that gets approved once it’s achieved. This BB is obsessed with Micro BS that has no influence whatsoever of whether this will get approved or not by the FDA. If you are not concerned on timelines or need to sell up, waiting to see what the FDA does is the catalyst, hence I said investment case not the trading case.
To put it more bluntly if the FDA approves AVA6000 in my opinion we will see ATH’s. Everything that is going on at the moment regarding the price action etc is just missed opportunities, of course everyone would have loved to have sold at 130p and bought back in at 50p if you believe in Avacta. However if you think this is going to get approved based on research and data you haven’t lost out on anything really. Moving forward as efficacy is proven in more patient's from the upcoming trials as long as the data remains positive, the likely hood of success will start to reflect in the share price as we get to the tipping point where ordinary people start to believe in the data and this hits the MSM. Even then if the share price surges on the COS being approved, the people that still believe won’t be selling out. They are looking for that FDA approval and the long term strategic options that brings. Obviously human psychology dictates you would rather have your portfolio showing green rather than red but in this situation it’s irrelevant to the success or failure, the FDA doesn’t care about the share price. The Share price cares about the FDA.
Been thinking the last few days. The people spreading fear are so focussed on the short term share price and think this we be a failure based on share price performance since Dec, rather than look at the science. They fail to mention this is still about whether AVA6000 gets approved by the FDA. (the data is exceptional so far)
So cutting all micro BS aside regarding placing etc the investment case is a pretty simple concept.
1. You believe in the independent data, and this will get approved by the FDA. (Share price appreciation will follow)
2. You don’t believe in the independent data, and this won’t get approved by the FDA. (Share price depreciation will follow)
Everything in between the above is just gambling on a trading position on any given week, you might win you might lose. However the investment case is very simple and the FDA is the one that will decide if Avacta are successful or not.
“Like I said previously, the best exercise a new Avacta investor can do is to go back and watch all of the videos put out by Alistair Smith. You’ll be astonished how little of what he has said has come to pass.”
What has Dr Smith done to prevent AVA6000 come to pass? As far as I’m aware we are fully funded moving into a pivotal phase 2 trial H2. With fantastic independent data seen so far. Going over past failures is like saying Apple were going to be a complete failure with the IPhone based on the Macintosh TV or the other 10 failed plus projects. Need to see the bigger picture and potential risk and return, as previous posters have said make your voice heard to the company and AGM if you are annoyed at Smith and the placing, that has nothing to do with the success of delivering AVA6000 through the independent trials though especially at a 50p buy in price.
“The counter argument could be... we have had 40 patients dosed and all it has resulted in is a collapse of the SP what difference will a 100 make”
Let’s not confuse things the Knee Jerk collapse in share price is due to the shock placing that no one expected and the 40 patients were dosed on safety (although we are seeing efficacy) The next 12 months Avacta are testing more for efficacy, however it’s a numbers game. We will have a tipping point especially if case studies start appearing on MSM, where people go ok this is likely getting approved by the FDA.
“Ice, it’s tricky, because we have had great results thus far. So will the next 12 months be sufficient in the trials progress to move the SP.”
In the next 12 months we will probably be over 100 patients dosed with AVA6000 at what point do folk wake up and go ok this is actually is working. Imo we will have a tipping point where the data is so convincing over the 100 odd patients, people will start to go ok this works as expected. The FDA obviously needs to be a bit more cautious, however people will try get in early. That will re-rate things imo.