Member Info for ICB888

A look back to last July may give us an idea where the share price is about to go. This RNS was released on 24th July 2024:

“ Scancell Provides Update from iSCIB1+ Clinical Advisory Meeting to Strengthen Plans for Phase 2/3 Registration Clinical Trial

A panel of international key opinion leaders in the treatment of Melanoma convened in Chicago to offer strategic guidance in the design of Scancell's Phase 2/3 seamless adaptive registration study.

The SCIB1 stage 1 clinical data poster was very well received at ASCO.

Scancell Holdings plc (AIM: SCLP), the developer of novel immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer, today announces that a group of leading medical oncologists in the field of melanoma treatment reviewed and strengthened Scancell's plan for a Phase 2/3 registration study following completion of the ongoing SCOPE study.

Scancell's plans to conduct an adaptive randomised controlled Phase 2/3 SCOPE-2 trial is supported by a panel of experts. The study is expected to have an early interim analysis of Overall Response Rate (ORR) based on a blinded independent centralised review of CT/MRI scans before advancing to the Phase 3 component where the primary endpoint of progression-free survival will be analysed at a predetermined landmark.”

At the end of that RNS Lindy made this historic comment:

“ Prof Lindy Durrant, Chief Executive Officer, Scancell said: "We are very grateful to the esteemed panel for their interest in our SCOPE results and their input into our further clinical study. The panel felt that the data was compelling enough to proceed to the Phase 2/3 randomised registration study upon the completion of the SCOPE study. We were also overwhelmed by the interest in the poster, which is the most significant response I have seen in my career."

The share price rose quickly from 11p to 19p. It seems to me that yesterday’s news validates the earlier RNS and SCLP is clearly in a better place now and the share price should move quickly 20p+

The forecasts appear on the Investor’s Chronicle website which come from the FT who own them. So it was not an article and the forecast section will I assume be updated once a new forecast is produced and/or the existing ones are updated. Todays news is very positive and should lead to higher broker targets in the coming days.

It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves just how undervalued SCLP is at its current market cap of £85 million.

From the Investors Chronicle:

“ The 2 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Scancell Holdings Plc have a median target of 24.50, with a high estimate of 25.00 and a low estimate of 24.00. The median estimate represents a 196.97% increase from the last price of 8.25.”

One would imagine updated broker reports will soon be published.

I don’t agree with your analysis because from Rio’s point of view they will be happy that the share price has come off the boil particularly if they are thinking of an early bid. The fall in the share price from 49p to 32p would reduce the amount Rio would make a bid at. If they take the opportunity to top up they would probably push the sp higher. Let’s hope investors keep the faith and move the sp back to the recent placing higher before taking it back to its recent highs as that will be the best defence against a low bid from Rio.

It would be very surprising if the US didn’t exempt Tungsten and Antimony from tariffs as they don’t currently produce any of those critical metals in the USA. The US needs these metals every day so it would make no sense to impose a tariff until the US has its own supply from someone such as GMET.

In the very encouraging waste deal that has rather been overlooked due to the antics of The Donald, JLP demonstrated value in their waste heap to more than match the current market cap. I have been wondering who they sold to and just saw this Kitco article about Zambian copper:

“ Zambia’s copper output is forecast to rise to about 1 million tons this year from about 820,000 metric tons produced last year, finance minister Situmbeko Musokotwane said in a statement.

Copper output in Africa’s second-largest producer of the metal is being boosted by revival of mines including Lubambe, Luanshya and Kalengwa, Musokotwane said.

The Zambian government aims to raise output of the metal to about 3 million tons over the decade even though it struggled to reach the 1 million ton output target over the years. Companies, including First Quantum Minerals and Barrick Gold, are pouring billions of dollars to ramp up production at mines in the country.”

So there are 2 big names that would fit the bill and will probably want to buy a lot more. It makes you wonder as JLP is so undervalued and its processing is very much at the cutting edge, if one of the big boys will decide to make a bid.

North American gold stocks rising strongly now but GGP seems not to have noticed.

Just remember not to be too greedy as it is very difficult to pick the bottom. The way I view it is that the recent placing was oversubscribed at 40p which was a 12.5% discount to the 46p it was trading at the day before the placing. You can today buy the shares 8p cheaper than the placing price thanks to the Donald. When the markets correct they will do so suddenly and you may miss the boat if you are out.

Sit tight and don’t panic. The big global institutions like JP Morgan are giving Trump a lesson in who’s really in charge by crashing the markets. He will need to moderate his behaviour or what is currently happening would be very bad news for him as it will tank the US economy and the US dollar and he could have a recession to deal with. The history of moments like this tells you not to sell but be ready to buy at the give away prices which will quickly recover. Thank you Donald for saving me a lot of money next week when I can add shares at 32p instead of the 48p I was expecting to pay.

I imagine Rick Rule is now rather pleased that he did not get as many shares as he wanted in the recent placing. He can now pick up what he wanted at a much lower price. As he would probably say a very agreeable circumstance!

“X (formerly Twitter)

Oliver Friesen (@oliverjfriesen) on X

Tariff day is almost here. What this means for

@GuardianMetRes #gmet #gmtlf is that 🇨🇳 tungsten exports to 🇺🇸

will be subject to 45% tariffs meaning landed cost

will be north of $55,000/t!!! (if you can get around the export restrictions).

domestic production SOLVES this.”

This demonstrates just how valuable US produced Tungsten will be. Presumably today we will find out the level of tariffs to be imposed on Tungsten from other countries. The biggest Tungsten producer outside China whose biggest customer is the USA is Almonty Industries whose mine is in Portugal which is in the EU. That is no doubt why Almonty released an RNS a couple of weeks ago appointing a major PR company to put their case to the US Government regarding critical metals and last week appointed a US General to their board. They are clearly very worried. My suggestion to them would be to become a partner with GMET to bring Tempiute back into production as soon as possible using their expertise in Tungsten production. Just a thought.

News about Phulbari was most unlikely to come from the recent visit to China. Its not China’s decision to make. We know China are in favour because Power China ( a Chinese State Company) have already agreed to provide $1 Billion when the green light is given. It is the Government of Bangladesh that have to give the green light. I hope that the Chinese have encouraged them to get on with it as Power China will want the work. Hasina alone has stoped Phulbari since 2006,now she has gone there is nothing to stop it going ahead. Any Government of Bangladesh that fails to prioritise the green light for Phulbari is likely to be viewed in the same way as Hasina, corrupt and not acting in the best interests of the people of Bangladesh. The interim Government needs to start progressing Phulbari as a priority.

This news is as expected and happens every year as has to happen with pre revenue companies. The moronic ramblings of the derampers is pathetic. There is a positive statement from the company essentially confirming what we can see from the media reports regarding the pro coal direction of travel. There is every reason to expect good progress in the coming weeks and months. The rise should continue as the funding for another year is now secure.

Second tick up of the day when the US opened. Currently Up 3.33% on volume of 400000. This steady rerate should continue as more US investors look for exposure to US Tungsten but so far the trading volumes on the US listing are low. When US volumes pick up this could rise very quickly and something like a grant from the US Government could be the catalyst for more US investors becoming aware of GMET.

The drilling results for Molotov were set out in an RNS in June 2024 and this was the comment:

“ Sean Wade, Chief Executive Officer of Power Metal Resources, commented:

"I am pleased to be able to announce this drill result, which shows continued progress at Molopo Farms. We achieved our principal objective, which was the intersection of the sharply dipping conductor, and I am grateful to the drilling team and the geophysicists who worked so hard to define and prove this difficult target.

As we have always maintained, Molopo Farms is a potential district-scale deposit, and for that to be ascertained, considerable investment needs to be made at this stage to undertake the scale of exploration required.

The Company continues to look at possible solutions to this requirement, which is aided by the extensive exploration data gathered, the potential for discovery and the supportive operating environment for this type of opportunity in Botswana. Further developments on that front will be communicated in due course."

Perhaps now POW has a large amount of cash they may use some to progress Molopo. They have been rather busy with the Uranium JV and Power Arabia which have taken priority.

The article did a good job of showing how undervalued POW is. It is good to see POW Up 5.56p to 14.25pas it’s a month since POW was last at 14p. Better volume in the last few days with 800000 on Friday and 1.6 million yesterday. Todays rise could be contributed to by GMET’s 5% rise because POW’s remaining 19.46% share of GMET is currently worth £10.73 million which is more than 2/3rds POW’s market cap. If only POW could start to perform as GMET has.

The shares have risen a further 5.75% so far today to another new high of 46p . So in answer to the fair value question the market says it is undervalued and is taking it higher. It is also important to remember that GMET is not just a Tungsten play and has a number of other mineral assets in its portfolio. But just looking at Tungsten, the companies in this space globally have seen large increases in their share prices as the Tungsten price has been increasing as supply in the West will be constricted due to China not exporting.

The raise of A$40 million converts to £19.5 million and is about 7.5% of the current market cap. The shares will go to institutions who will be intending to hold them, rather than trade them as there is a high probability that there will be a substantial gain over the coming weeks and months. It probably increases the likelihood of a bid from Rio prior to the DFS and also indicates that if SVML did decide to go it alone they would have no difficulty in raising the Capital and financing to develop the mine. I imagine it will all be done and dusted when the Australian market opens again this evening.

If Trumps instructions are to be complied with, one would expect receipt of Grant money imminently. It has been under consideration for some time so the Government should be able to action it immediately. One would hope that the new mine that is closer to production is also eligible for a grant in addition to the Pilot Mountain grant. Would it be a separate grant or could they just increase the amount of a grant that was already in progress to GMET. If the grants are to specific projects rather than to a company it might have to be 2 grants. This is all looking very promising and we know that Oliver will leave no stone unturned ti seize the day.

Charles Archer has put out a detailed write up on GMET in his letter this morning which is very positive and is clearly hot of the press following his interview with Oliver on the Sunday Roast.

This is an interesting development because SVML is well funded with more than enough cash to complete the DFS which is virtually finished. I am just intrigued as to why they are raising money now and wondering if it is to strengthen their hand in the negotiations with Rio that will start a 90 day negotiation period as soon as the DFS is presented. This period can be extended up to 180 days. Clearly if the negotiations dragged on it could put SVML’s working capital under pressure as they continue to advance the project. Rio could use that as a lever to get a lower price when SVML was strapped for cash. Institutional investors will be very keen to get hold of SVML shares and it would not be surprising to see Sprott and other existing shareholders up their holdings. I think Rio have the right to maintain their 20% holding so they will almost certainly take what they can.

I think this is a very canny move by SCML which will accelerate the buy out by Rio and help to secure a higher price.