Member Info for Icarus49

What level of business would justify the current £27m market cap. Needs a substantial improvement from the current revenue of about £8m and costs of £10m.

Tomorrow comes early down under!!

Value of Alien’s share holdings in WestCoast and Greentech is worth £7m. 30% share of the two JVs must be worth at least £25m with significant upside as Elizabeth Hill nears production. Total £27m plus iron ore interests worth ££??. Compared to current market cap of £26m

.......and hope Greatland have stopped selling Gold. They don't need cash currently so should just sit on the Gold they have. To some extent they did that in the last quarter mining 86,000 oz but only selling 72,000 oz.

Bookings way up - but over 3 years. Cash same level because sold a big chunk of the business.for $3.4m. Cash flow neutral only in Q1 (as result of up front part of 3 year deals?). New deals announced so far this year - nil.

With SK You have to read his posts carefully: "Excellent meetings with ............investors," Cash raise coming next month?

Next event, assuming no significant bookings, will be full year results at the end of March. They will be disappointing as have to show actual revenue rather than bookings. Will be interesting to see if justify £30m market cap.

My question is what do they intend to do with the £17m cash they are sitting on? My preference would be to use it to market a solution to anyone worried about cyber attacks such as Marks and Spencers or JLR ! If they don't need it a share buyback or even a modest dividend might help the share price.

"Importantly, cash and receivables are the same as 6-months ago" BUT sold 40% of company in the 6 months -receiving $3.4m.

"....and existing clients have the confidence to sign big new renewals" - only 2 clients and they look relatively big because they are for 2 and 3 years. - only total about $800k per quarter . In Q4 apart from 2 large renewals were only 4 other contracts with insignificant value between them.

Well has p**sed away £260m of shareholders money over the last 10 years . Has turnover of around $10m pa and has never made money. But apparently shares can go up as well as down!!

Look out for the auditors comments the on going concern issue. $3.4m cash raise last year - will need ~$5m raise before the accounts are passed.

$3.4m cash from selling 40% of the company can only be done once.

The receivables which presumably are from the front end part of the renewal contracts should ensure that Q1 is cash positive. The concern is that the 4 other contracts in 25Q4 appear to have insignificant value. Cirata needs 20 large deals to justify the current market cap of £30m.

from RNS Sept 2024: " ........Take the business through to cash flow break-even, which the Company aspires to as it exits FY24"

With only 17 businesses signing up last year, will be £0 by Christmas unless there is a cash raise soon.

From the Etu RNS: "The effective date of the transaction is 31 December 2023. In 2024 profit before tax on the Etu interest was US$14 million. The total headline cash consideration payable by Afentra at completion is US$23 million. This includes US$22 million for the Block 3/05 interest and US$1 million for the Block 3/05A interest. The consideration is on a cash-free, debt-free basis and is subject to customary adjustments for working capital and crude inventory balances between the effective date and completion. Based on current estimates, these adjustments are expected to result in a material reduction to the final cash consideration payable at completion."

So given that 2025 was similar to 2024 how much actual cash will Afentra have to pay on completion ?

The only reason that Q1 will be cash flow positive must be because the 2 large multi year deals had some up-front element of $3.4m which should just about cover Q1 costs -no evidence of any worthwhile new deals that will bring cash into Q2,3 or4. The 2 large deals are at most $800k revenue per quarter - less if $3m was upfront. The 4 new deals in Q4 were worth next to nothing. Cash raise in very near future.

Only 6 contracts signed in Q4 totalling $9.8m - two big multi year at £6.7m and £3.1m. so the other 4 had negligible value. Cash burn (excluding DevOps cash) in Q4 running at an annual rate of $8.8m - cash plus receivables of $7.4m. Expect cash call soon.

"Many AI projects start with excitement… and then end in silence. The problem is almost always an unclear strategy and unready data.' Stephen Kelly on linkedin. Is he talking about Cirata?

Hope that turnover in Q4 will be better than expected but Cirata doesn't usually comment on turnover in their quarterly updates only on orders which if they are for 2 or 3 years will look good but may be misleading. As the DevOps business was sold on 11 August the employees concerned will either have left Cirata or will have been made redundant on that date. Their salaries etc. shouldn't be in the Q4 figures. The question for 2026 is will the major shareholders be prepared to support the company for another year with a perhaps a £5m cash raise at 10p a share?

A brief look at recent Cirata events – the ending of the FCA investigation, the $9.8m of new contracts, the reduction in overheads, the launch of Symphony; all look positive. I am sure that Simon Hunt at City AM appreciated that the deals are multi-year and not actually new deals and are worth only $800k per quarter. If not, and the Q4 update isn’t as strong as Pearls expects then he and his followers are going to be very unhappy with whoever promoted Cirata’s prospects to him.