Member Info for Ibug

JK1
Unless it is in a CPR I'm not really interested. You can work out the decline rates the company expect from page 36 from the Final Officers Report

HTTPS://mycouncil.surreycc.gov.uk/documents/s62690/OFFICER%20REPORT_Horse%20Hill_Final.pdf

Horndean is the only one we have at present. We wait in anticipation for the rest.

UKOG has estimated net attributable P50 reserves of 80,000 barrels of oil (effective 31 December 2018, see Table 1 below). This figure is 19% lower than last year, due to continuing production from the Horndean oil field (UKOG 10%) and Xodus’ independent evaluation of Horndean reserves. It is also expected that during the next period, once permissions for long term production are received, reserves, significantly greater than the current contingent resources, will be added from Horse Hill’s Portland and Kimmeridge oil pools.

JK1
Best if you go back and read the RNS's to get the real story. That is one of the reasons why the CPR has not been updated.

"Further to the reported Portland EWT results, Xodus have now delivered a report which details that, to date, the single HH-1 well has "seen" approximately 7-11 million connected barrels of the total full field OIP (or Stock Tank Oil Initially in Place "STOIIP") reported in the Company's July 2018 AIM re-admission document. Based upon modelled production profiles and oil recoveries, the Company and Xodus believe this to be a commercial connected OIP volume for a single well that supports the Company's envisaged multi-well Portland oil drilling and production programme. It should be noted that the calculated connected OIP should not be misconstrued as recoverable volumes or reserves."

PSC
This was the original question. "Does anyone have an idea on how much per barrel the recoverable reserves may be valued at once a CPR is issued?" It cannot be answered unless you know what the recoverable reserves are. UKOG have not given out that information (1P, 2P or 3P) for either the Portland or Kimmeridge. It is not proven so SS is guessing. It is all supposition. They haven't even drilled the wells yet. If you couldn't work that out from his interview I give up.

It has never been mentioned by SS. Only values that have been mentioned are production costs estimated which are $17 or $21 /bbl (Portland/Kimmeridge). How do you put a value on recoverable reserves when you don't have the data.

Penguins
Did you read the scoping document? Page 8 of 25

3.B/C/D/E/F: Production
Mon – Fri Sat Sun/Bank Hols Duration 2-Way HGV Movements
08:00 – 18:30 09:00 – 13:00 None 4 Months Maximum 16 per day
08:00 – 18:30 09:00 – 13:00 None 24 Months Maximum 12 per day
08:00 – 18:30 09:00 – 13:00 None 48 Months Maximum 8 per day
08:00 – 13:00 09:00 – 13:00 None 60 Months Maximum 4 per day
08:00 – 13:00 09:00 – 13:00 None 104 Months Maximum 2 per day

Only about 3% of crude oil is imported from SA. No great loss imo. OGA website has all the stats.

Just goes to show share_talk know nothing about pumps. The pumps are quiet.

You never know. YOKO and ONO make make a guest appearance with a packet of ROLO.

Hardly vertical. It may have been for the first 2000 feet. By the time it got to 4000ft it was at 45 degrees.

HTTPS://ukogl.org.uk/map/?em=true# zoom in and click on the HH-1 well. It even shows you where it was deviated to if you click on the right link.

Record Well Name MD (ft) MD (m) Inclination Azimuth Easting (X) Northing (Y)
1 HORSE HILL 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 525254.91 143600.31
2 HORSE HILL 1 875.00 266.70 0.25 105.00 525255.47 143600.16
3 HORSE HILL 1 1185.00 361.19 0.25 5.00 525255.69 143600.32
4 HORSE HILL 1 1500.00 457.20 0.50 60.00 525256.07 143600.73
5 HORSE HILL 1 1780.00 542.54 1.00 215.00 525255.97 143600.31
6 HORSE HILL 1 1816.90 553.79 0.85 25.35 525255.95 143600.31
7 HORSE HILL 1 1861.90 567.51 0.85 20.41 525256.02 143600.49
8 HORSE HILL 1 1906.40 581.07 0.81 18.93 525256.09 143600.68
9 HORSE HILL 1 1945.40 592.96 1.07 9.77 525256.14 143600.87
10 HORSE HILL 1 1991.40 606.98 3.04 359.78 525256.16 143601.37
11 HORSE HILL 1 2035.80 620.51 5.12 353.20 525256.08 143602.33
12 HORSE HILL 1 2081.00 634.29 6.90 351.36 525255.89 143603.75
13 HORSE HILL 1 2125.20 647.76 7.95 353.47 525255.66 143605.48
14 HORSE HILL 1 2169.40 661.23 9.33 345.15 525255.27 143607.46
15 HORSE HILL 1 2214.00 674.83 10.78 342.03 525254.60 143609.73
16 HORSE HILL 1 2257.70 688.15 12.46 340.10 525253.73 143612.27
17 HORSE HILL 1 2302.00 701.65 14.34 340.41 525252.67 143615.21
18 HORSE HILL 1 2346.80 715.30 15.90 339.52 525251.45 143618.56
19 HORSE HILL 1 2390.70 728.69 17.23 340.00 525250.13 143622.14
20 HORSE HILL 1 2434.00 741.88 18.64 339.11 525248.71 143625.94

49 HORSE HILL 1 3725.10 1135.41 43.60 330.85 525137.63 143829.23
50 HORSE HILL 1 3769.40 1148.91 43.95 331.15 525133.10 143837.40
51 HORSE HILL 1 3812.60 1162.08 43.62 331.09 525128.70 143845.38
52 HORSE HILL 1 3857.20 1175.67 42.98 331.07 525124.19 143853.54
53 HORSE HILL 1 3902.10 1189.36 42.77 331.16 525119.69 143861.69
54 HORSE HILL 1 3947.30 1203.14 43.32 330.48 525115.11 143869.90
55 HORSE HILL 1 3989.60 1216.03 43.57 330.54 525110.75 143877.61
56 HORSE HILL 1 4034.40 1229.69 44.70 331.55 525106.14 143885.93
57 HORSE HILL 1 4077.70 1242.88 44.61 332.16 525101.77 143894.11
58 HORSE HILL 1 4123.40 1256.81 44.04 332.15 525097.22 143902.71
59 HORSE HILL 1 4168.20 1270.47 43.65 332.59 525092.84 143911.09
60 HORSE HILL 1 4212.70 1284.03 43.36 332.47 525088.53 143919.37
61 HORSE HILL 1 4257.20 1297.59 43.16 332.74 525084.26 143927.62
62 HORSE HILL 1 4301.80 1311.19 42.71 332.87 525080.03 143935.86
63 HORSE HILL 1 4345.40 1324.48 42.30 332.84 525075.93 143943.85
64 HORSE HILL 1 4390.40 1338.19 41.94 332.96 525071.74 143952.03

This was the latest on the rig

7th August
"As a consequence of this transaction, drilling of the much-anticipated HH-2/2z Portland horizontal well will follow very shortly after completion of the SPA."

SS said a couple of weeks in his interview on the same day. He is obviously a couple of weeks off a couple of weeks! Being a straight heterosexual guy I take a couple as being two.

The recommendation is to PERMIT subject to conditions.

HTTPS://mycouncil.surreycc.gov.uk/ieListDocuments.aspx?CId=122&MId=6651&Ver=4

Planning and Regulatory Committee
Wednesday, 11 September 2019 10.30 am
Attendance details
Agenda frontsheet pdf icon PDF 128 KB
Agenda reports pack pdf icon PDF 5 MB
Add meeting to your calendar using VCS format

2021 is the next one as last one was in 2017. I make that 2 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7kbNpUiEBY

Qwerty59
Why ask the question when the answers are all in the Planning documents? Are you too lazy to read them all and expect others to do all the work for you?
The rules are simple and based on % of maximum storage. Why do you think they have bunds of a certain size, bop's, emergency stops etc.
If you had read the planning documents all the procedures and plans are in place for what the SCC need. They will only need to scale up for the present EA permits.
1800 barrels to 9100 barrels is not that big an increase.
Did you miss the latest update to the ZG-HHD-HH-PROD-PA-34 R0 Process & Storage Area?

Qwerty59
I take it you checked the EA permits? They will of course need a new one once planning has been approved as present one is only for the exploration stage. It has nothing to do with SCC. That is why we have an Environment Agency.

Rise or fall of SP.
Planning approval is the trigger for all further approvals to fall in place with the minimum disruption.
Flow rate would be the next trigger imo.
No good having a high OIP if you can't get it out or flow rate is not commercial.
Even the traders are hard pushed to make a profit here as we have seen it all before with the variation in spread.

Bridgedogg1

Drill HH-1z Kimmeridge horizontal devlopment well

CONSTRUCTION OF A PROCESS AND STORAGE AREA AND TANKER LOADING FACILITY TO INCLUDE:
2 FIRE WATER TANKS
2 PRODUCED WATER TANKS
4 GAS-TO-POWER ELECTRICITY GENERATORS
2 Loading bays

FDP to OGA for Portland and Kimmeridge production

EA permit for production

Obtain landowner permission for long term production

From Retention Areas Agreed (Updated June 2019) 2014 Model Clauses
PEDL137
drill a Portland appraisal well of Horse Hill 1 by 30 September 2019, drill a Kimmeridge limestone appraisal well of Horse Hill 1 by 30 September 2020 and acquire 40 km2 of 3D seismic by 30 September 2021
PEDL246
acquire 25 km of new 2D seismic by 30 June 2020 and acquire 10 km2 of 3D seismic by 30 June 2021, and drill a well to test the Kimmeridge limestones by 30 June 2021.

The planning application and planning documents vary between 20 or 25 years depending on what you read.

Earth tremors continue around Surrey village as researchers discount link to oil sites

Https://drillordrop.com/2019/08/28/earth-tremors-continue-around-surrey-village-as-researchers-discount-link-to-oil-sites/

Small earth tremors have continued to be recorded around the Surrey village of Newdigate during the summer.

Last week, the British Geological Survey (BGS) added 14 tremors to its database of British earthquakes.

The tremors were too small to be felt and ranged in magnitude from -0.9 to 0.1ML. They dated back to 6 July 2019, when there were nine events in a single day. There were another two tremors on 9 June and four more in May.

In the past 50 days, the newly-added Newdigate tremors account for nearly a quarter of the seismic events in the UK recorded by the BGS as not induced by human activity.
his part of Surrey has recently experienced much larger tremors, which were felt by local people and reportedly caused damage to property.

They began on 1 April 2018 and have ranged in size from -0.9ML to 3.2ML.

During the series of seismic events, which has become known as the “Surrey Swarm”, 31 events exceeded 0.5ML, nine measured 2.0ML or above and two were 3.0ML or above. 11 events were felt, based on reports recorded by the BGS.

People have described the seismic events as:

“it felt as if a large lorry had crashed into the side of the house”

“I woke to feel the bed shaking”

“sounded like an explosion”

“The bed shook and the furniture and windows rattled”

More if you use the link above