Member Info for IanKellett

Sorry I meant Spights

Fleccy,

When you say all the way up how high did you go?

Could it get to £8.00 with if oil stays strong and big upgrades off back of Q1 results? Or is that being silly?

VBR

Ian

Gosh Mr Buffett I do hope you are right - I have rather a lot of these and you being right would make me very happy

Did I misunderstand?

I thought I joined a forum to discuss the BP share price not some liberal old womens' debating society about our own personal political views - wind it in, please, for Heaven's sake.

Please please please only discuss BP share price - we have all had enough of you (you know who you are Jam and team) whining on about the decline of the UK, TDS etc. Enough, please desist.

Yes but Oman was at $145 - all Glencore's $45

Yes that is what I mean - we get Brent which is already marvellous, but the super profits being the spread of Oman vs Brent will go to Glencore - not enough volume to make Glencore a buy on its own, but they probably have other similar contracts and that spread is huge

Does anyone know a firm date for trading statement? Should be around 14th April I think. This should hopefully be very good news indeed for BP SP, as they tend to give a band for $bn of profit increase / decrease by division. Gas trading should have blown the lights out I would think. May lead to big EPS upgrades for BP for the whole year. We shall see. Q1 results on 28th April should confirm more detail for sell side analysts to splurge EPS upgrades all over it. If this all happens whilst Brent is $100 plus the share price should have a good run I think. Fingers crossed.

GLA DYOR.

So its still very good indeed for TLW, but perhaps even better for Glencore.....

No I mean TLW will get brent based averages over loading days, whereas Glencore is a liberty to sell it at Oman based prices.

I suspect the marketing agreement with Glencore for Tullow oil, as part of the debt funding, will Mean that it is Glencore not Tullow making the excess over paper Brent price.

There's a long way up to go yet, this has only just begun. That is, if the UK has available any petrol or diesel for consumers to buy.

I agree - boots on any ground even an island in the gulf - is madness - its just Trump trying to talk the Iranians round I think - at least I hope. If he puts men on the ground they are all dead and the oil price is $150. I really hope its just Trump bluff and bluster.

Fleccy,

IF this is Iran playing him for time (which is my base case) and the 6th April goes by with no deal, given the lead times for the two MEUs from California and Asia, what would you (or anyone here) estimate would be first boots on ground date? Military men - anyone? Friday April 10th - his weekend gig for market's sake?

The reason I ask is this is very time sensitive for us. My working hypothesis is that the capacity of BPs gas trading desk to give a tremendous boost to BP profits (remember Ukraine effect?) then what we need to get to is preferably Q1 results on April 28th with the "excursion" still in progress or at very least Q1 trading statement (guestimate around April 14th). Investment bank sell side analysts will then be under pressure to boost their expectations for the 2 trading desks at BP for 2026 as well as the oil price boost. That might get us to your 650p or even beyond, but we need the Iranians to hang on for another 5-6 weeks from now, if anyone has any friends in Islamic high places..... That's the bet I am working on. I have a large position in BP and so getting this as right as I can really matters - but we all need a little help from our friends (and I am even happy to take it from our enemies).

Any answers?

Ian

i think iran are playing trump for time. this wins them 5 days. pezeshkian says hello to pm of ****stan and takes his call (instigated by usa no doubt). trump gets all excited - oil down equity markets up. iran buys 5 more days of no oil through the strait with barely a bomb in sight. they are playing trump for a sucker. it’s their same stalling negotiations tactic as before 28.2.2026. the longer the duration strait is closed the greater the supply demand imbalance and the higher the price of oil.

clear as day what the game is.

it will be bibi who gets anxious and understands what they’re doing and it will be bibi who wants to get back to the bombs.

Brilliant analysis Meoryou.

Its a bit like modern day school sports where everyone is a winner - its the taking part that counts - that's you we're talking to Europe......

Also I cannot quite decide which is Trump's current bluff. He likes to bluff to try to throw people off track (like last June when they sent some B2s to another location as a feint). So he's either bluffing that the war is about to end in order to get the oil price down, or he's bluffing with the two Marine Expeditionary Units inbound to Gulf area. I am not sure which is the bluff. I suppose I feel the requisitioning of the MEUs is a more certain item than words to journalists with whom he famously loves to f*$$ around. Which do you think is the bluff?

Fleccy, I thought it was very interesting yesterday when POTUS apparently said he would leave the re-opening of the strait to those who use it - USA doesn't buy much from Persian gulf. China, India, South Korea and Japan are the main customers. Leaving China with the problem of getting Iran to let the oil flow through the Strait could actually look like the smartest thing DJT has done in months. But as I already said on here MBS and Al-Thani would not be at all impressed if USA just abandoned their post now having blown up the neighbourhood. Still, it MIGHT be a POSSIBLE way out - the only one I can see atm. It would undoubtedly mean the whole gulf became a China sphere of influence not USA which in the longer run might not be smart, but as a shorter term expedient it might look attractive.

Fleccy, and don't forge the Goher-Jask 1,000km 42 inch pipeline they opened in January 2026.....

I think that would be their best route forward at this point, but how on Earth does he tell MBS and Al-Thani "we're done, USA is leaving". They have run in and blown up the neighbourhood. Leaving Saudi, UAE, Qatar et al to clean up the mess I would imagine might be quite difficult to say the least for US - Arab relations. Leaving the Strait closed such that none of them can sell their national resource, and USA pulling out is probably not realistically possible What a pickle USA has found itself in. I fear USA is stuck where it is and has no option other than to see it through. How on Earth they can re-open the strait I have no idea, it really is terribly difficult. This could cost a lot in a very 'expensive' settlement with Iran, but could be months before it is realised that is the only option. The toll charge paid to Iran on oil leaving the strait looks more and more likely IMHO.

Furthermore Tony, different crudes are different and suit different refinery set-ups. Gulf oil (eg Saudi) is a sweet light crude. Venezuela is most certainly not that and nor is Canada. Ghana Jubilee (thank our lucky stars) is also a sweet light crude with low sulphur making it a close to perfect replacement for gulf sweet light crudes. I think this will be a major factor for Tullow - they should therefore be able already to be realising prices close to Oman (or higher) at $150 / barrel, rather than the brent quotes at $110. Fingers crossed.

Keep going on the research Tony, you are doing fine work Sir.