Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
They will be one of many. One billion a year is nothing. This is also probably not taking into account mgm films.
The only clue bidders have is that Comcast have a nine billion dollar war chest from Disney buying their 33% stake in Hulu. So Comcast can bid with Disney’s money. All other bidders will know this and bid accordingly.
The current share price will bear no relation to the buy price.
This is a one time opportunity for some massive companies to expand their entertainment portfolios. Gaining a strategic advantage over their competition.
The bidding process of submitting their best offer from the get go, with strict confidentiality, Meaning they cannot gain an advantage in any way. Should make for an interesting few weeks.
Lots of buyers will have different reasons for wanting to buy Cineworld. Maybe Tuesday will shed more light on the number of bidders so far and possibly one bidder the ad hoc lenders are keenest on. This week might see a lot of activity. But as the judicial process has started, I cannot see the judge not keeping to the 16th end date for proposals. Even I’d their is currently one bid clearly ahead of all the others.
There will be plenty of bids. Could also get bids from companies or countries, not expected.
The prince of Oman paid for force awakens to be partially shot in Oman. He is a big movie buff. So plenty of wealthy individuals could buy Cineworld as a vanity project. Time will tell. But worth waiting out till more comes out after the 16th. When more clarity will hopefully come out.
Next week is the last week of full trading before the proposals have to be submitted the following Thursday. So any sharp movements will most likely occur this week.
Shorts would be advisable to close their positions. Too much risk over reward as soon as the buyout transactions take place.
Proposals will probably take the shape of a full and detailed proposal with a one page synopsis attached. So the judge can quickly dismiss the worst on Friday. Go over the best one at the weekend and make an announcement of which companies proposals have been kept.
Confidentiality will stop any details of those proposals rejected to be released till after the process is concluded.
With AMC and their ape shares, seemingly making it nigh on impossible for any reasonable takeover attempt from occurring.
The 16th is the only feasible chance for studios and other interested parties to buy a major cinema chain and benefit from the recovering market over the next few years.
After the 16th expect more upwards movement in the SP till the winning proposal is released. That is if the share is not pulled off the market when the buyout process begins.
Strict confidentiality on bidding process. But companies need to submit their best or near their best offer from the get go. Only top two or three if all close will continue. Not much wiggle room or chance to negotiate. Someone will win and then profit from all the synergies and recovery in the film industry over the next few years.
Come the 13th, the SP will be higher.
This is a one off opportunity to buy one of the two major cinema chains. There will be plenty of serious proposals put forward to the judge.
They will not be able to do this again and do not want their rivals to win out.
The big three studios, Disney, Warner Bros and Paramount are in dire financial straits and cannot realistically bid. Not without shifting some of their loss making companies off their books.
The money men whom finance movies, are starting to add caveats into the contracts, ensuring the films not only have cinematic release, but 100 days exclusivity. After the success of Top gun Maverick and Avatar 2. And the failure of Wakanda sequel.
Hold your shares. There will be people trying to get you to sell and the negative posts on this board will increase over the coming two weeks. Do your own research..
Considering the size of companies putting forward proposals and they have to put their best or near the best offer forward to make it through the judges selections process. Better than expected.
Main players for Cineworld are
Apple
Walmart
Amazon
Comcast.
One of these will be the new owners in a couple of months. All have various reasons for taking on Cineworld. All the others will fall by the wayside.
Lmao. Except everything I said would happen is. The company is being sold off and the judge will decide. Watch this space..
No leaks. Just regurgitating Cineworld line. Proposals are confidential and all go to the judge. He then decides the best two to three. The rest leave with nothing.
Companies will look to buy all of Cineworld. Even if they only want Regal. No value in just taking Regal on. Can sell the other cinemas in a few years when the market recovers.
Lots of big hitters will be putting forward proposals. Mooky is not in control of this, even if he tries and makes out he is.
If you look at previous chapter 11, 9 and 7 cases. The judge has the ultimatum say. Read the Sears case to see how clearly the judge is King. The judge’s word is final and cannot be overruled.
Now a date is set for prospective buyers to submit their proposals. There will be little movement till after then.
I expect the hedge funds and investment banks will have people in Hollywood sniffing out any info about who is putting forward a bid and how much.
At the end of the day, the judge is King in all of this. He needs to be satisfied that he gets the best outcome for the company. Everyone involved knows this, lender and Mooky et al. I can see him whittle down the buyers to the best two or three. Should know more end of February.
Losing another 39 cinemas will greatly concern the studios. I expect some more movement on this. Studios need the maximum number of screens for their movies. Losing this will impact on their potential profits..
Cineworld will be sold off lock stock and barrel. A big company will clear debts and pay enough per share to get the necessary share holder approval. Between £1-£2 a share. Then Mooky can go off into retirement with some money for all his efforts over the years.
Will not be able to sell group without shareholder approval.
Also Regal has 90-95% of the debt. So unless they get 4-4.5 billion for it. Not worth it.
Lenders would not agree and also legality of it is up for question. Feel Mooky is trying schemes which involve him keeping control but are not legal.
They started off trying an illegal action in using DIP to pay off second lien lenders.
I expect the judge to lead this more now. He has been lenient so far. But with his press release about hurrying up the process. Shows he has had enough of Mooney’s delaying tactics and schemes.
Am sure Cineworld’s lawyers advised to sell the whole company and get the best price for it and Mooky instructed them with completely different actions.
This will get more aggressive and confrontational soon. IMO
HSBC and Barclays financed the deal and underwrote the whole thing.
They are the first lien lenders and will want the company sold and all debts paid off as part of the sale process
Lots of regulatory problems with listing Regal on US stock exchange. Not as simple as just listing it.
Needs shareholder approval for a start. This will not get approved. Also Mooky having a criminal record will mean he can hold no shares or have any dealing with Regal. Authorities will deny the listing.
The whole company will be sold off. Might be a few weeks or months till concrete news comes out.
Mooky trying to hold onto what he regards as his family’s business. Like Gucci before, it took a lot of hard prying to oust the family and make the company profitable again. IMO
Mooky’s RNS. A judge would never normally make a statement without due cause. He could not comment directly and Cineworld have not submitting there plan. But he has been involved for many years in Bankruptcy proceedings and let Cineworld know both through his public statement and more vigorously in chambers how he wants things to go. Mainly the sale of the company.
Both he and the lenders will have received genuine offers. The only ones to go public with ridiculous offers have been Cineplex and AMC. Both of which received short shrift from the lenders. So expect Cineworld to adhere to the Judges instructions.
I fully expect the judge to take a far more firmer role in effecting the sale of Cineworld as a whole, as was agreed before Xmas.
I am sure he read the Cineworld lawyers the riot act over Mooky’s comments.
Cineworld filled for chapter 11 bankruptcy and not group. That is whom the judge is seeking the best interests of.
Over next month and a half I expect for a date to be set for the deadline for any interested parties to submit their proposals and a shortlist of the top two or three to go forward until one is approved by the court. IMO