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https://gamerant.com/black-panther-wakanda-forever-release-date-disney-bob-chapek/amp/
Per movie released, we have far exceeded pre pandemic admissions. The problem is volume. In 2019 there was 200 releases per month. Now we’re lucky if we get 80.
Being a rubbish movie doesn’t help the cause either.
Who knows guys. I guess we just have to sit and Hope.
Also possible that they simply reduce the utilisation to requirements…. As good as paying it off ?
Just the reality mate. But I’m not an expert and this is based on my own tech analysis which has been wrong multiple times before
Hate to say it but 18p is a real possibility now.
Brutal to watch
So we may not know until September . I wonder if that’s why they delayed H1 report?
As referred in note 19 of the 2021 Annual Report, The RCF (revolving facility) is subject to a springing covenant when utilisation is above 35.0%. The covenant requires the Company to maintain a
net leverage of 5.0x, tested semi-annually on a 12 months rolling basis. It is calculated as Net financial debt (loans and borrowings net of cash) divided by Last twelve months EBITDA
As of December 2021, the RCF was fully drawn, hence above the 35% utilisation.
The company is considering all the below options:
- the company receives a waiver from the RCF lenders on the test
- the company refinances the RCF ($462.5m) and is not subject to the covenant test
- Reducing the RCF utilisation to below 35% hence the company is not subject to the covenant test
Under our loan agreement, the company needs to report to the lenders on the covenant test by end of September (90 days after the covenant test date)
Kind regards
Investor Relations
We headed to 4 p then? I better sell
I emailed investor relations to ask about June cov test. Can a few others here do so too? Greater chance of getting a reply.
Recon we lost a few long term holders today. Haven’t seen bonkers in a while
We have seen this share trade badly before news - eg before the court case judgement. I wonder if some bad news is coming? We started selling off yesterday and are way below the average. This is hard to watch !!
Tegop - no one can time the market. If someone says they can (like squid ) then they’re lying. Someone may get lucky but that’s all it is.
Yesterday was a tough day - the sp keeps knocking on 22. Hope it holds, if we close below, we may touch 19. ( based on my rudimentary technical analysis at any rate)
Yes absolutely I think we will.
Would like to hear from others about what they think of above? Id also like to say Im not advising anyone to buy or sell any share. I am no expert.
There is a lot of risk on this SP. we know this. Squid/77black/ocean tell us daily.
But Im not selling to try buy back in later, that strategy is hard to get right if not impossible. We are very close to the bottom (all things being equal).
Here is one way of looking at it though:
2021 Revenue 1.8 billion dollars.
If we look at domestic US box office numbers of 2021 vs 2022
January - $65,138,132 vs $389,522,163 ( 5.98 x increase)
Feb - $57,746,920 vs $365,522,657 ( 6.4 x increase)
March - $113,597,962 vs $578,319,129 ( 5.11x increase)
April $195,097,683 vs $568,037,252 ( 2.9 x increase)
May $214,709,870 vs $785,708,679 (3.6 x increase)
June looks to be at least 3x increase.
If we keep going at this rate, we are looking at a 4.51 x increase in box office revenues.
Even if we simply match 2021 box office H2, we will still be looking at a 3x increase in box office revenue.
Now I say that means we could expect 3x in CINE revenue - which means 4.8 billion. (1.6 x 3)
In 2019, CINE revenue was 4.3 billion. This is just guesswork, but IMO makes sense.
Tommy I think either CINE will get a waiver or they will pay it off. If they get another waiver, it will put stress on the SP further. Also, you really shouldn't be asking advice anywhere online. DYOR. No one here will tell you what to do except oceanpassage and Squid.
THe good thing about CINE, is that we were never over bought like Tesla / Nvidia etc... This market crash is bringing these stocks down to earth. They were trading with insane P/E ratios (upwards of 100). Cines P/E ratio is about 4 I think...
If we can demonstrate profit and paying back debt, this will rocket.