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There is a fair argument I’ll agree regarding wether or not Colin has been over optimistic in his estimates in podcasts, but the same cannot necessarily be said from comments in RNS.

17th may RNS
>> Modelling continues at the project, with the Racecourse prospect indicating that it has grades and tonnes justifying a rework of the conceptual open pit."

30th June RNS
>>The phase 2 exploration programme is about to be completed and when we have modelled and evaluated all the raw information, we will be well advanced on the value curve and able to position the project in the global market.

30th June RNS
>>In general, our exploration activities in Australia have been extremely encouraging and without a doubt we have discovered a major system, well beyond our original expectations.

The first is significant in that it supports the decision to mine. The second suggests at the very least the resource model confirms there is adequate tonnage for purpose. I personally now don’t care now what CB said in the past as a hook, as long as the objectives are now met at a ‘minimum.’

I’ll say we, as I am guilty too, of putting too much reliance on what CB has said in the past, even the 2mt target and possibly the buy back agreement in general.

The RNS excerpts highlighted, have been included in the body of the RNS’s, although both are Colin’s comments, the latter from year report, they surely hold more credibility over the interview comments, with a strong inference that phase 2 objectives have been met.

That’s all that matters as a baseline target for a likely outcome of a total sale of asset.
That’s originally why I invested.

I would ‘not’ have thought they would realistically want to do that Steve, if even they could.

From report
>> The phase 2 exploration programme is about to be completed and when we have modelled and evaluated all the raw information, we will be well advanced on the value curve and able to position the project in the global market.

The cut off will be determined by the financial model and will be key to resource viability.

I do think your previous idea that once the models are released with planning on a 3rd phase ongoing it will prompt AA to show their hand. All CB’s comments and more importantly the statements released in RNS all point to a scenario that still involves determining AA’s intent.

Timeline of sept /oct for both JORC and predictions of a copper recovery by some analysts including our Colin, tally nicely.
It seemed an obscure comment at the time by him, but maybe it gives some indication of their intent the fact that he did mention it.

You are correct about the share price F100, but an RNS out the blue stating they have 2mt will not be the case, the updated resource model/s when completed will give the tonnage and grades etc and duly reported by RNS. And only then will the market have a more firm foundation to put a value on Bushranger and AA have something to base their decision of intent on.

As xtract’s intent ‘is’ to produce the JORC resources before any decision on a 3rd phase it is with clear intent they would be willing and open to and if, an offer from AA is made.

Hi pedro, my thread title I started was considering the companies plans for strategic growth in the coming years essentially after, a deal is done on their primary asset BR. The plan is to sell it on, and not mine it themselves or through any kind of JV. Decision to mine is one of the options that starts proceedings for a buy back. (Just to be clear if unaware)

The main objective of phase 2 was to prove up 2mtCuEq with initially between 16-22000 metres of drilling. The phase was extended to 30.000m+/- and now stopped, so we can assume that target has been now met ( good thing) what disposition of RC tonnages and the grades grades is yet to be understood and we eagerly await news of both the resource models potentially by October and what the company plans to do next thereafter.
Hope that helps

Is that just a little naive to suggest it will fall because of the 3rd phase?
I would agree with Stevem
You would certainly think that once the updated resource model for racecourse combined with the initial resource for ascot are released that would give the market confidence as initial target for the buyback has been reached. Any plans to ‘enter’ into a 3rd phase will not happen until after the market has been updated on the models and plans going forward.

Exactly flipper, the objective of phase 2 has always been to prove up 2mtCuEq and or the decision to mine, to then see what Anglo wants to do with it. I don’t believe this has changed, in worst case, the extended phase 2 drill program was potentially because the target was not met from racecourse alone, which is maybe why it was extended. There was a recent comment from Colin that he thinks the 2 million ton will come from racecourse and doesn’t think they’ll need it to come from Ascot, also the more we drill the more value is added so that is interesting so maybe not a worst case. But generally, there has been no reason to believe at this stage that the objective has changed to approach AA if targets have been met, and then some.
What they decide to do next will be in shareholders best interest of course.

But I think once resource models are out, there will be an opportunity for shareholders to consider an exit strategy if this has all been too much and want out if this is going into a 3rd phase. But certainly don’t be hasty.

Thanks for the reply IWTO.
I would only repeat what I had said before that xtract are not proving up the resource toward the actual extraction and production process, but with more a view to a marketing perspective. They simply need minimum of 2mtCuEq and or decision to mine to get AA interested or not. That will open the door to eventual sale dependant on their decision of course. Quite irrelevant at what depths mineralisation starts at Ascot. One of the last holes into Ascot was to the south to no doubt follow the trend of shallower mineralisation the further south though if I recall.

I think there is a general underestimation of what could be on the table, there is about 15 furlongs of mineralisation from both RC and Ascot.

Lol Just come back from site in anticipation to hopefully join the long and intense debate, I had wondered why that one didn’t even get a nibble! For a brief time I thought maybe the site was down Ok that was my second poke at a response with that thought, I’ll file that one away now in the ‘repetitive parsley’ pile.

Cheers lucky laughed out loud at that.

* A sale sooner rather than later because of the plans for strategically growing the company, not because of my suggestion to jump now as their is potential increase of struggling deposit owners. ;-)

Thanks Andy I was looking at your 3rd point you made there.
Considering they are pursuing these further projects, although the plan to search for deposits with a certain criteria. One being they will not be front heavy capital investment, it would still potentially put a lot of strain on the treasury particularly if going into a what appears to be a fairly comprehensive sounding, 3rd exploration/ definition phase at BR.

Anyone have any idea as to a ball park figure of capital outlay for one of these type deposits,
Safe jurisdiction
Shallow ore body
Near final production ready
Within 2 years to develop
Nearby local plant
Up to 5 year LOM
Up to 50,000tpa
Don’t sound particularly cheap to be worthwhile.

I suggested before that with BR on its books for another 6-12 months it could seriously impact plans for strategic growth over the longer term.

I would not be surprised if BR has had all the focus now spent on it and it is time to move it on.
It’s not my agenda, I would be happy to wait longer for a bigger asset. Also be happy for an earlier sale by year end or after.

With income now from fairbride to pay toward further exploration and plant mods (next year) and once Eureka is bringing in cash it will then be positioned for further exploration phase there too.

It they push on now, there will be even greater potential that more of these small deposit owners are left in a difficult position in this climate to get the funding to enable that last push to development stage.

What do others think on a sale of BR sooner rather than later in lieu of the plans to search and develop these other small JV’s?

Some good news might get soon for the investors that are considering what to do post BR conclusion, that follows longer term plans for strategic growth as the company search for deposits that are not high CapEx and are within a couple of years production ready. Colin first mentioned taking on a couple of JV’s last AGM , “ to help toward the drilling efforts in Oz” They have picked up Chongwe, but I do hope Racecourse/Ascot are not still on the books in another 2years!

>>The company is examining a number of exciting opportunities in the small copper and gold sector and look forward to reporting progress during the 3rd quarter.

Further growth to come from exploration to extend mine life and plant mods next year at Fairbride. Whilst in Zambia there is potential to increase the deposit and mine size to north west and at depth. With an agreement in place with a local processing plant to take the ore and once producing, their is further exploration to follow on in deep drilling of a partially oxidised zone that suggests the IOCG theory.

Be good to get some idea at AGM of what will become of the remaining licenses in the BR copper gold project post sale
Add to the million other questions maybe.

Any other thoughts?

Nice idea IWTO, we can take your idea a bit further

What camp are you in?

Camp optimism -
Closer to 2mtCuEq will be modelled from racecourse alone. With further gold, silver and moly having a very positive effect on financial model for Ascot, with its outer margins defined and tipping the scales at around the 450-500mt mark, total resource up to 1bt , multi mineralised, multi porphyry system with further outlying anomalies confirmed to be mineralised shown from phase 3.
Value - top dollar!

Camp that’ll do -
As above with a 3rd phase under its belt but with only up to 1.5mtCuEq from RC total 750mt resource
Value - big bucks

Camp realistic -
+/- 1.5mtCuEq modelled from RC with Ascot having to bulk up the rest. Adequate resource modelled from Ascot to cover any shortfall. Multi mineralised multi porphyry system like Cadia still, but decided not to embark on a planned 3rd phase so approx 750m of strike at Ascot that takes both models comfortably over the 2mt threshold.
Value - fair value

The latter could be conceivable if the statement in the yearly report is to be understood that the project will be actively marketed starting with contacting AA.

>>The phase 2 exploration programme is about to be completed and when we have modelled and evaluated all the raw information, we will be well advanced on the value curve and able to position the project in the global market.<<

It may simply mean that as the resource models will be in place, AA will then be in a position to consider making an offer as xtract just sit on the planning of a 3rd phase as suggested by Steve 4077 placing the onus at first on AA

Going back to previous comments about racecourse model being done by next month was just considering this statement from the yearly report. It implies that both models will be released at the same time, so that would potentially be around late sept, early October very minimum.

>>Upon the return of all remaining assay results from the Phase Two Drilling Programme at Racecourse and Ascot, a new resource model for both prospects will be developed.

Maybe keep expectations in check

Flipper, I was considering selling some of my xtr shares to buy into smoke and mirrors, I’ve heard a lot about them recently!

Steve
>>However, his plan to 'buy back in' might be tricky if wants a significant number of shares

Maybe that is exactly what has made his decision so much easier. He may simply have only relatively small capital to play with. Also the less you have to invest, the more likely you would be to chase the next quick profit. It’s just human nature.
It’s would be almost impossible to get it right for us who hold shares in the millions.

Just clocked this part post by papillon over on the dark side,-

>> I read today that TCofMC has also sold all his XTR shares to concentrate on **** & ***

A little dig found his actual post on a different stock chat worth repeating here.
CofMC>>
No, sold out to take a bigger position here as well as at ***. I think the potential for exceptional sp returns here are significantly better than at XTR. I like XTR and intend to buy back in, but it seems to me like they have slowed down the delivery of the JORC in order to explore Ascot and the other areas more indepth. If it comes off then it will be worth it, but with the copper price being hammered combined with the above, I don't see the sp doing a grest deal until later this year. Also, if the world goes into a recession, how well is copper going to perform and how well will the copper stocks do? In China, Yiwu and Sanya have just gone into lockdowm. Yiwu accounts for 80% of the worlds Christmas decorations, hopefully Christmas won't be cancelled.

XTR have found something very interestimg, it needs more work which will take time. Since I am concerned to make money, not fall in love with a share, I have refocused elsewhere for the time being<<

It goes to show that even the most informed, knowledgeable and respected contributors (albeit on ADVFN) even have a threshold that they are not willing to exceed if that does not meet their own personal expectations.

To sell ‘all’ their shares is rather brave though, to be tied into something else and miss out on a getting back in, just to chase the next big thing.
Brave, stupid or genius decision?

Certainly a lesson we can all take on though, that you simply cannot allow sentiment to affect decision making where investment decisions are concerned.

Johnswan your reputation for negativity really is starting to precede you.

Just saying.

Why would you think a raise would be required to look for the next big thing?

They are looking for small deposits that are nearby processing plants that will churn about 50.000tpa over about 5years that will not need heavy front end capital. May be very good opportunities in current environment as many more of these small deposit owners will struggle to secure funds to get them to final production.

You must surely have some positive outlook for the company I would hope.

There has no doubt been any number of other factors that have contributed to the downturn in Xtract share price over last 6 months.
Sentiment in general, that mistrust from past experiences with LTH’s or CB in general, uncertainties that resource targets are going to be met by many, disappointment that an approach to AA or even a sale hasn’t happened already, Fairbride taking way too long to come good, kalengwa disappointment, investor part selling for purely personal reasons. I’m sure there are many more.

The company may not have helped by their approach to PR, even with a 5’hit hot Twitter feed it wouldn’t have really helped. After all we would still have seen the drop off in key areas of news flow around overall resource building data at BR, that has left us all clueless as to where the tonnages and grades currently are at. That really hasn’t helped investors in general to keep confidence after the early phase news saturation we had.

Any of these many reasons have resulted in sell’s over time. Level 2 has been well tracked and commented by Steve4077 (thank you ) how even small volumes have seen the bid get dragged lower. There is clearly not a big sell off though!

There is way too much evidence out already to warrant that trust in what the company are trying to achieve in what is clearly a difficult time.

Generally, whatever the tonnages are from RC, there is huge benefit financially still, to add significantly to the model from the gold, silver and moly that is there in high grades and further proving district potential if required.

Hi lucky
>How will that create value, if the share price doesn’t go up?

I would certainly hope it would at least change perception of what is still a very speculative investment for potential new investors. It will be what makes Xtract stand out in the crowd when markets turn. It will also give firm starting point in their due diligence toward a basic valuation of the company and more importantly the confidence to take a position or increase a holding knowing BR can see any final funding without dilution and be in a position to finance further long term growth as stated in audited report.

Sounds like a reasonable business plan for growth. As for the next big thing, that could be an IOCG in Zambia.

But seriously, no it’s not great we may be sitting on hands for a while, just bad luck.

Another way of looking at it then, the share price is only so low because no-one believes fairbride will deliver and not helped with the drop in gold price.

After all, I thought the market hadn’t factored in any value from Bushranger toward market capitalisation of the company. If this is being driven down by investors selling, then they would surely know that fairbride is soon to be up to full throughput and then with decent EBITA toward valuing the company a lot higher than where value sits at present. They must have little faith in the production side of xtract too.
Company valuation is mad, but the fall in value is in-line with similarly positioned companies on AIM as far as I can see.

Current MC of 28m for all African assets alone will soon surely see a rerate once fairbride is contributing, but as yet we still await first meaningfull income.
I would be shocked if the company held that important news back. Hopefully gold will continue its recovery and we get MC back to recent higher levels if not a tad more as gold continues to climb as expected.

The company is in a very strong position still, and a reminder of a previous comment made that xtract are a gold producer right now! And a copper explorer on the cusp of a potentially huge saleable asset in the near to distant future.

Let’s try keep positive until we know what we have.