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I agree with you chaps, also with the potential to join up all the resource maybe outweighed the potential to increase Ascot.

CB made a point of emphasising, the reasoning behind why they chose the Decision to mine, against rather than chase the 2mt with resource ‘not’ joined up for reasons stated.

2021 Xtract shareholder presentation reference.

Page 27
>>>Aim to initially produce 215k ounces gold at 2.62g/t Au over 7 years (30,000 ounces per annum)

Which is in line with Empress ceiling of production expectations.

So as usual is Colin just doing his thing and by rounding up. Ahem

https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/XTR-Presentation-14.10.2021.pdf

Every right to question the companies forecast, I ‘don’t’ doubt your calcs or reasoning and your conclusion is arguably a fair one Steve. For the original post to be reported and subsequently deleted seems a bit much though and without any challenges to your findings just smacks of a form of you being singled out now of the back of one other post.

To be fair though it was a f****** corker ;-)

Was a post at 10.54 deleted this morning?

Data from China influencing a pull back today. But with a supply shortfall looming next year, copper futures must surely strengthen with ever increasing demand.

Copper futures were around $3.8 per pound, easing from the near one-month high of $3.9 touched on December 8th as concerns of slowing demand for industrial and construction inputs outweighed looming supply deficits. NBS PMI data from top consumer China showed that factory activity in the country contracted at the fastest pace in seven months, and crippling debt issues drove real estate activity in the country to contract by 4.2% year-on-year in the third quarter. Still, looming projections of shortages limited the decline. Lower supply in South America continued to drive concerns of shortages in the near future, as output from top producer Chile slid 6.7% in the first three quarters of the year and mine protests in Peru hamper production. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days, and mining giant Glencore estimates a supply shortfall of 50 million tonnes in 2023.
• tradingeconomics.com

With RC data now with the modellers that are producing the new mining study. Gives a basic idea as to how the modelling software crunches the numbers which will be from across RC ( the primary mine ) and Ascot too. It will hopefully also determine if the low grade mineralisation from the 1.5km bit between the two can be incorporated into that mining study. Wether it can be joined up at all, or someway in part.

Where a JORC resource classification is required for the PFS it could be assumed that any of the unclassified resource cannot be utilised in the ‘actual’ mining study that will form the basis of the ‘decision to mine’.
Any thoughts on that?

Also, it would be assumed that Ascot will not have its ‘own’ conceptual study as has not been delineated as is relatively untested. But has been stated, Ascot will be utilised along with RC in the mining study and will of course add to the overall inventory of resource.

A twatter thread posted a while back of interest and well worth a second look if missed it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilRingdahl/status/1526444705734696961?s=20&t=hVaUwxE9i-ZbGbseQZeP6A

Ben >> our jurisdiction better

Just looking at a blog type thing on lowest grade mines in the world, from some person called The Angry Geologist.

>>Tepal Project in Mexico, has Cu = 0.2%, Au = 0.3 g/t blah blah……. Relatively low strip ratio, good byproduct Au values. A very poor location to have a project as the area is controlled by the Nights Templar Drug gang.

Strange, as in the company presentation they don’t mention anything about organised crime or racketeering

>>The region has a history of established international scale agribusiness and has a long history of local independent mining operations, both indicative of a supportive community and social relationship. 

Funny that!

It is important to consider that the higher the copper price, the lower the cut-off grade required for economic extraction. Particularly if the lower grades between Ascot and Racecourse are mineable and viable to be included in an MRE. While copper prices are still low, the tonnages may be considered small addition toward the JORC, or not make it in. But when copper increases in price, the JORC resource could become significantly larger, purely based on a change in the cut-off grade. It is a big area!

CB initially estimated the high grade early recovery at 4-6 years which now, has shown to be more like 8 years. Let’s hope he has also underestimated the viability of the mineralisation between Ascot and Racecourse.

It has the potential to be economic for sure. For comparison, Mt Milligan mine has been mining sub 0.2cu I read recently and that was at $3.00lbCu. It appears to be more the case of wether it is going to be amenable to be open pittable though. CB commented on that they did not know yet if the resource modelling would show if the plunge would be too deep and was uncertain on the strip ratio tolerance. Be a nice bonus on top of Ascot estimate.

Found this on Alacran deposit while just browsing an old article from 2017 that shows cut off grade.

>>Initial inferred mineral resource at the deposit is 53.52 million tonnes at 0.7% copper and 0.37g/t gold, or 0.95% copper equivalent, including 7.37 million tonnes at 2.14% copper, and 0.41g/t gold above 1% copper cut-off.

From their 2021 PFS interestingly they use a NSR cut off.

The Mineral Resources for Alacran were classified using the 2014 CIM Definition Standards and have an effective date of August 3, 2021. The Alacran deposit hosts 105.6 million tonnes of Indicated Resources grading 0.44% Cu, 0.27 g/t Au and 2.52 g/t Ag and 2.6 million tonnes of Inferred Resources grading 0.20% Cu, 0.17 g/t Au, and 0.86 g/t Ag at an NSR cut-off of $1.78/tonne for saprolite and $8.85/tonne for transition and fresh material.

Higher grade but far low lower tonnage in comparison.

Updated forecast after a strong month

Copper futures rose to $3.9 per pound, hovering close to levels last seen in June amid worries of incoming shortages and expectations that industrial demand will rise in top consumer China. Lower supply in South America continued to drive concerns of shortages in the near future, as output from top producer Chile slid 6.7% in the first three quarters of the year and mine protests in Peru hamper production. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days, and mining giant Glencore estimates a supply shortfall of 50 million tonnes in 2023. Eased covid restrictions in China also supported prices by raising hopes of improved demand. Also, the PBoC cut its reserve ratio by 25bps to stimulate industrial activity and combat increasing signs of a slowing economy.

* tradingeconomics.com

>>>I thought there was a midweek podcast all about AA and next April 22nd.

That was a tongue in cheek post. Referring to a podcast that was actually from 18th Jan this year.

Here it is anyway

18/01/22 midweek takeaway and target for talks with AA
https://podcasts.google.com?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9hdWRpb2Jvb20uY29tL2NoYW5uZWxzLzUwNjQ0MzcucnNz&episode=dGFnOmF1ZGlvYm9vbS5jb20sMjAyMi0wMS0xODovcG9zdHMvODAxNDc1Mg%3D%3D

Here’s all 3 since JORC was released

29/11 response to steve4077

https://audioboom.com/posts/8204540-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr

24/11 Sunday roast RC 1.1mt & decision to mine

https://audioboom.com/posts/8201622-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr

23/11 Racecourse JORC Zak Mir

https://podcasts.google.com?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9hdWRpb2Jvb20uY29tL2NoYW5uZWxzLzUwNTExMzMucnNz&episode=dGFnOmF1ZGlvYm9vbS5jb20sMjAyMi0xMS0yMzovcG9zdHMvODIwMTMxOQ%3D%3D

As Andrew had stated he notably continued to, or increased his holding when the threshold was crossed or reached on the 5th Dec, ‘after’ the Racecourse JORC was released on 23rd Nov

How low can you go? And I don’t mean the share price!

In 2011 Boliden’s Aitik mine had reserves of 710 million tonnes at a grade of 0.25% copper, 0.13g/t gold and 1.6g/t silver. Resources totalled 1.7 billion tonnes at 0.18% copper, 0.11g/t gold and 1.0g/t silver. This has seen, since then the average copper price around the 2.50-3.00USD/Lb. Was far lower when the mine was being developed.

The point is that large, disseminated, copper-gold systems can be profitable at very low grades.

Conversely, narrow, discontinuous, but high grade deposits may require a very high cut-off grade to be economically mined.

That is the misconception the market I believe has, that isn’t helping investor confidence.

What’s the point in the filter? If when a filtered poster does turn up again, you are so inquisitive as to who the well-wisher could be, you unfiltered them and then actually reply to their post.
And then…..you even wait for a witty retort.
Hurry up Thisgoesdownigo so I can decide if I put you back in your ‘pointless’ little green box.

Hello Thisgoesdowni’go’ you were right all along! Well done, it has gone down and yet you are still here ;-) so I assume that it is why it is giving you joy??
Bit ironic otherwise

Demand for copper could well be, at least kickstarted, sooner than later now as China has lifted some of its most severe parts of its zero-covid strategy after the recent protests, which include forcing people into quarantine camps.

>>The sweeping changes indicate China is finally moving away from its zero-Covid policy and looking to "live with the virus" like the rest of the world.<<
BBC news

Could it be a perfect storm brewing?

It is clear from the objectives from the phase 2 programme that there must be a great deal of importance placed on highlighting and understanding the multi porphyry potential of the system. Generally we know that exploration follows a certain path or pattern toward building the resource to get to the next key decision or data point and so on.

So this now, is as big a decision point than any, with in particular, the outcome of the mining study. Toward what is, the most important thing for the company. Triggering the buy back to see what they want to do.

Desperately need for that to happen first. Beyond that, what really is going to happen next?

One thing is clear, in one respect, they will certainly not be out of options to expand on the resource with the current geological knowledge against the back drop of governments across the globe that are legislating the ‘need’ to decarbonise and reach net zero. It ain’t going away!!

To elaborate on what I meant by this
>>>It is a a lot easier and cheaper to process the higher grade at a higher economic cut off. As more of the lower grades are now included in the updated JORC, the economic cut off will come down.<

As is shown in the high grade crown of the resource, the 191Mt @ 0.33% CuEq, is reported at a cut-off of 0.2% CuEq. Whereas the overall resource of 512Mt @ 0.22% CuEq*, is reported at a cut-off of 0.1% CuEq.

Cut-off grade depends, upon the processing method used to achieve the best economic productivity.  It is cheaper to process higher grades than lower. For example, Milling, which is the cheapest, crushed or agitation leach, and run of mine (ROM) leach. I found that the lowest cut-off grade for milling is 0.18% copper equivalent, for crushed leach 0.12% and for ROM leach 0.05%.

This is so simplistic there are many other factors including dilution of head grade that goes for processing that can affect the cut off too.

Boosting investor confidence through the medium of song! What next? Maiden mineral Resource reporting of ascot, with a poetic verse and a final evaluation of the economic model summed up with a philosophical quote from Friedrich Nietzsche.

Might just work