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In the space of a good few months, we have gone from supposedly, a PFS not being a prerequisite to a sale, before the decision to mine was the preferred option to trigger the buy back. To now, it would seem a necessity that AAL, expect to see, and that Xtract will have to provide to support the DTM. Ok, to be fair then, it was always going to be that a PFS was a requirement as for as long as I can recall, the hope was for the DTM and the 2mt threshold were to be concurrent to put to AA.

As long as the economic mining study shows good potential then, they will at some point in the new year, further commission Optimal mining solutions (would assume) to do a PFS. What we do know is they are essential to justify continued investment as it would reflect the increasing economic and technical knowledge gained from data gathered to date. Further to that though, a PFS is a thorough preliminary assessment of all the important elements of the project going forward from environmental and social impacts to the business end, with estimated costs of technologies etc.

Not to be underestimated, it is a serious undertaking. As for cost of a PFS, a simple search would imply anything from 0.5% up to 2.5% of overall project value and can take from 3-5 months to complete. I’m fairly certain that some of the extra drilling particularly to the recently converted indicated parcel of RC will in turn and in part, need to convert further to measured resource. A criteria of the mineral estimate inputs for a PFS. No surprise there, the extra drilling was anticipated as far back as early august after the completion of phase 2.

Feels like the project has already turned more serious now. Certainly on from avocados and onions when I initially thought, what the hell have I invested in? A copper porphyry play or a game of supermarket sweep? So I for one am looking foreword to a far less speculative year ahead, as the company consolidates and further grows both sides of the business in the coming year. What is clear from current shareholder sentiment though, we need far better transparency, consistency in timing of news releases and professionalism through the PR that’s released going forward so a new influx of investor that will have the confidence to invest as old money gets opportunity to get out. Unless that belief returns and soon. Cue the impending economic mining study. After all, BR is the primary asset in the stable that has the ‘most’ potential to drive up the market cap short/mid term.

Eyes wide open going into the new year, just glad ‘22 is almost over, and hoping the Micky Mouse way of promoting is finally over too! It’s not a joke anymore where people’s hard earned money is at stake. All in still and happy to be.

Can offer you some amateurish drivel MtN, or repetitive parsley ;-). (I love that phrase) as I prefer to call it. So don’t get excited it really is pointless forum fodder!

Manica is located in the Odzi-Mutare-Manica Greenstone Belt of Mozambique.

This gives a good aerial view of the fair bride deposit. ?https://www.google.com/maps/place/18%C2%B053'45.4%22S+32%C2%B052'32.9%22E/@-18.8964972,32.8748284,445m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d-18.895946!4d32.8758033

From there, to the NW about 1000km as the albatross flies is the recent acquisition Kakuyu mine which is 53km NW of Mumbwa town which in turn is ‘only’ a twelve hour drive from Colin’s former kalumbila or as it is now the sentinel mine, surprisingly to the NW again.

It’s almost uncanny…..almost

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are still driven by electric motors. They still require predominantly more copper than pet/diesel cars, but with only a small battery pack opposed to an EV, it would tend to be the battery metals that would see reduced demand.
Copper is king however you look at it.

There is a different scenario that could play out in terms of what will happen next. This posted by steve4077 after AGM. Sorry it’s a copy paste but certainly worth repeating while on the subject and considering Steve’s past as a respected poster and that the content of his findings were not contested at the time by any other attendees.

RE: Details of buy back
24 Aug 2022 09:56
I asked quite a few questions on the strategy. In principle it seems to be:??1) Announce RC decision to mine based on 500mt (ish) using a model with a copper price in the region of $8500. Total contained not specified but we can probably assume around 1.5mt. The intention seems to be to get the AA decision out of the way early. Colin expects copper price to reach 15,000, so (reading between the lines) it seems to me they want to announce this model while we are below 2mt and the copper price is low in order to get a 'no' from Anglo. I asked if getting Anglo out of the way could backfire as it removes the shield of that agreement and allows a lowball bid for the company. Colin stated that junior miners don't suffer hostile takeover attempts. The only example he could think of was SOLG and that was due to conflict within the company.??2) Phase 3 will follow the above (which is interesting as they assume there will be a phase 3) and will cover more definition on RC higher grade area to improve the IRR, further drilling at Ascot and NW of RC, which they now seem to think is actually open again. This will happen sequentially, not all at once.??3) Start talking to various majors who are more likely interested because they already have a presence in the area (Newcrest?). Again reading between the lines, it sounds like informal contacts may have already happened. Colin made it clear that when a deal happens, it can happen quickly.??Based on the above, the 2mt seems to be a moot point because it will become irrelevant once AA reject (or accept) the decision to mine trigger. This seems to be a coherent strategy with defined steps. It could be a relatively quick deal if Anglo trigger the buyback on the decision to mine, or maybe 6-12 months for a different buyer. Colin made it clear there would be no JV. Whether people will be happy with that strategy will depend on their time horizon and prior expectations…….

Yes you could well be proved right JS I just find it intriguing that I think on every podcast since the RC jorc was released he has repeatedly mentioned the hope that they can be joined up. Why would he keep bringing it up if there was no chance? And particularly since the markets reaction to the 1.1mt with the decision to mine being the only option and with CB admitting “that was my fault, I should have made it more clear. “

Since then, he has noticeably reined it in and is sounding far more candid. So he could well be just covering himself from failure by saying he doesn’t think it does join up if the mining study confirms it doesn’t. The fact is they simply do not know for sure yet.

In a previous podcast CB spoke of the strip ratio tolerances that will determine wether they can both be joined up. Although it is of a low grade through ‘no man’s land’ it also stops 200m short below racecourse and mineralisation is also at depth. But if the study shows it could be economically viable to remove all the excessive overburden to get to the ore then it would have greater economic benefit overall to NPV

The alternative would be then that racecourse is stand-alone but with a strong chance that it can be partially joined up with Ascot, initially and I would assume concurrently mining the shallow high grade ore.

Targeted drilling programme to follow to increase tonnages determined by the conclusion of the study. I would be happy with that too.

I think you did miss the point JS The conceptual mining study will evaluate the potential to join both resources up to make it into one big open pit. If it doesn’t then the 1.1mt at racecourse will be the focus for the decision to mine.

>>>You will see. Believe me. Remember this day and date for your apology to come.

Give us a clue at least, anything can crop up for you to then say, ‘I told you so’ is it legal, is it corporate or is it fantasy?

>> I fail to see how all this predictions of future earning and riches are going to materialize……..

Hello Roggy to sincerely believe that you would have to be a conspiracy theorist believing that global warming is ‘made up’ and something that certain governments only ‘want’ you to believe.

The copper and battery metals story, particularly copper is central to global decarbonisation and reaching net zero. If you believe in electrification then you have ‘got’ to believe in copper. It comes with the near certainty that increasing unparalleled demand will outstrip supply sending copper prices soaring for many years. Starting in mid ‘23 with Glencore predicting there will be 50mt copper shortfall.

That is the backdrop that cannot be ignored. Hope you get a good return and soon!

ZM you cannot reason with some of our LTH’ers, It’s like trying to reason with a 4yr old. Once you start, you have lost.

Tongue in cheek of course LW ;-) but there will be a time that the next breed of investors buy in and currently invested close their positions and move on. Probably long overdue for many I’m sure.

It ‘must’ go without saying though, that not all projects wether currently on the books or new acquisitions will succeed. Of course it is a very high proportion of projects that do fail or simply have to be parked up for any number of reasons, wether geological or economical. But that shouldn’t be a reflection on Colin bird companies. I don’t think this has been the case for Eureka, it will be a big commitment to undertake a mining programme that will have the momentum and be efficient enough to turn profit to then undertake the exploration to extend pit and test the deep sulphides that could potentially be a major discovery.
It’s more likely Eureka has been mothballed until they can sell the ore when Cu prices increase and a big ‘maybe’ that the company are also in a stronger position financially and with the resources once there is a conclusion to BR.

You can take what you want from any bulletin boards, but there is a better way of looking at the current position.
I believe the company will deliver some decent upside.
For me just understanding some basic principles of investing in the resource sector.-

* Look for cash flow stories with commodity price and exploration upside.
* Capped downside and uncapped upside potential.
* And near term cash flow from production.

Similarities we are now seeing with Xtract’s current positioning and growth strategy.

The company is on the verge of seeing that potential upside over the next couple of years. And with meaningful income to progress current assets based on the known geological knowledge and understanding to increase ore reserves and extend life of mines, in both Moz and Zambian assets. Is certain that any lessons learnt from Kalengwa will hopefully not be repeated with the current strategy to take on further small mining operations. Of course nothing is certain, but at least it puts them in a strong position going into this next cycle.
Bushranger project aside.

Copper futures fell to the $3.7 per pound level, hovering firmly below the one-month high of $3.9 touched on December 14th as increasing concerns of a global recession hampered demand expectations. Major central banks delivered hawkish outlooks on monetary policy to curb inflation, while soaring Covid cases in top consumer China are expected to limit the extent that businesses want to reopen fully, despite eased lockdown rules by authorities. Still, threats to global supply softened the retreat in prices as lower production in South America continued to drive concerns of shortages. Output from top producer Chile slid 6.7% in the first three quarters of the year and mine protests in Peru hamper activity. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days, and mining giant Glencore estimates a supply shortfall of 50 million tonnes in 2023.
• tradingeconomics.com

Just a reminder that kwaks share price figure, before Colin bird took over Xtract and the current share price, does not take into account the effect of the dilution and the potential value of the assets acquired in that time. As well as any growth opportunities that have resulted from ‘previously’ necessary fund raises.

And I thought drunken rambles with no point were my forte. Art, it was hardly price sensitive news. I think anything other, than oz update, expecting to stir the market will be like p155ing in the wind at the moment with current sentiment.

Apologies investing 100 in that case, although I must question your timing then after the recent rerate. Bit touchy that’s all.
Certainly no offence intended.

Podcast•
More news from down under to follow, and hopes to speak again before Christmas??

Fairbride plant is ramping up with ongoing plans for increasing the mineral reserve and sulphide plant potential.

2-3 years certain cash flow minimum from Kakuyu with good potential to extend.

>>Wasting our money on impulsive purchases.?

Either a deramp or the most uninformed or naive statement.

These acquisitions are important for future cash flow into the company to secure the needed sustained growth of the production side of the business in line with its growth strategy. They will be cheap to pick up at this time of economic turmoil as these small operations will find it so difficult to go solo and secure the funding to get these projects cash positive. Xtract are very ideally placed. They are of no extra burden to xtract as a project manager will be appointed.

A reasonably well structured deal, and as promised not to heavy up front capital loaded and production ready. Small scale, let’s hope it’s turns good profit.

The company did say news on JV’s would be before end of year, so a pat on the back for the team and Colin.

Come on lucky don’t be so fickle ;-)

>>I think at this point, no one is really convincing anyone else.

Agree with you there Steve, so revisiting the conclusion to the conceptual study is reassuring in that respect.

>>The Conceptual Study concluded that the Racecourse deposit contains significant low-grade tonnes of copper and gold which may be economically recoverable at copper sale prices above US$4/lb. Optimal believe that the economic recovery and processing of ore with low grades between 0.1 - 0.2% Cu is pivotal for the economic viability of the Racecourse project, with the sensitivity analysis showing that for each 0.05% drop in cut-off grade the NPV drops by as much as AU$341 million. Overall, Optimal believe that taking account of the project's large size and relatively low grade, conditions should support the efficient and productive mining of the deposit. Optimisation of the processing plant capacity, capital cost, metallurgical recoveries and operating cost will improve the economic viability, and further opportunities exist to:
 
- Increase the size of the current Inferred Resource which will be critical to project viability;

Which it ‘has’ successfully achieved with a classified resource of 512mt @0.22CuEq. Phases 1&2 have hit all realistic project expectations, with adding ‘typical’ porphyry grade mineralisation.
It has been some investors expectations that have clearly not been met of which I would included myself previously.

JS I am aware of the results from no man’s land which were important for defining the limits. I’m not saying it needs to be drilled further. When have I said that? I apologise if you have misunderstood me somewhere.

The question now is, why is there now a rhetoric toward this particular area between Ascot and RC in light of the drilling result summary given previously. Which incidentally, doesn’t state it is ‘not’ of economic grade but ‘considered’ to be below viable mining grade. There is an apparent difference and until the data is modelled by the independent consultants they cannot be certain either way as I, and I’m sure many others understand it.

JS how is that rubbish, until it is explored effectively, how are they going to know? It is not known yet if , or at what Cu price it would be economical.