Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Dani >>Can someone explain why Colin stated in 6 Apr podcast of AISC 700$ AN ounce to XTR for Q1 yet in report it says 1185 an ounce - that's one helova difference
Tbf Colin never actually stated in the podcast that 700$ was AISC, in his own inevitable way, he may have simply been referring to just the production costs.???
Anyone know how the SPV for exploration is funded? From xtr’s net profit share direct or would it be paid back into SPV from company operating cash flow?
The exploratory drilling not grade control drilling which is part of the mining process.
BTTS = Any decent share price gain and I'd be off like a shot.
Seems there is one other investor type I had overlooked. The ones that use the Hokey Cokey strategy……. In and out. 😉
🥳 you are back in !
All the best I’m sure whatever decision you make will be the right one for you 👍
I think it is generally looked upon from 3 different perspectives of the various investor types here.
There are pre bushranger holders that have experienced past failings for whatever reason, with maybe many carrying those experiences and are now very sceptical of CB to return value.
The BR investors that were drawn in from the saturated PR and with it the hype and FOMO. So feel let down that the board has failed to deliver quicker.
There are also no doubt other newer investors that have a longer term outlook that have evaluated, with many crossovers from the first two, maybe now have re-evaluatited the company position going forward and can see past those failings before or are less affected emotionally and financially to cloud their judgement in what is a ruthless ultra high risk sector.
Don’t believe there is an investor type category for legends Jezzoo
Andrew >> Its a matter of opinion what the split is e 80/20 50/50 or 20/80. I guess no one will ever know for sure.
In fairness to Steve4077 in his time here over a year ago and prior. He reported his ‘unchallenged’ analysis continually of L2 data from key moments, which supported the fact that there were no major sell offs causing the drops but was a result of external market forces with MM’s driving the prices down across the whole sector on relatively ‘low volumes’.
Over the past year there have been many occasions that ‘others’ had offered their own L2 analysis on why there had been a share price drop that day and supporting the very same fact that there have been ‘no’ major sell offs and reporting the same conclusions as steve had.
So if aggrieved shareholders are largely holding the proportion of the blame with the boss, then there must be either,
A/ no correlation between resulting low sentiment against what actual selling there has shown to be in light of the past L2 analysis.
Or B/ the previous L2 analysis would suggest the split is more in line with 20/80 in favour of external forces.
Or C/ ?
Steve replied >>They should definitely have listened to your expert advice and held on instead, while the (xtr)share price fell 60% in a year.
I see phoenix copper have suffered a similar fall in that same period.
Wonder how that’s working out for him?
Also >>>XTR is in a mess because of XTR - it has nothing to do with any posts I made a year ago, despite people trying to assign blame to me for everything that happened over the last year.
First part is subjective, but I fully agree with the second part, anything Steve had previously posted had no real baring the drop.
Every junior in my watchlist has suffered the same fate including jubilee with sound revenue that have seen a 50% reduction in share price over same period. The preceding year makes for even grimmer reading across the whole resource sector.
The CB factor that is often spouted as a cause of the drop and is suppressing would appear to be infectious and have a far reaching effect beyond just xtr 😉
How much blame are shareholders seriously putting on the boss?
Steve replied >>They should definitely have listened to your expert advice and held on instead, while the (xtr)share price fell 60% in a year.>XTR is in a mess because of XTR - it has nothing to do with any posts I made a year ago, despite people trying to assign blame to me for everything that happened over the last year.
Steve replied >>They should definitely have listened to your expert advice and held on instead, while the (xtr)share price fell 60% in a year.>XTR is in a mess because of XTR - it has nothing to do with any posts I made a year ago, despite people trying to assign blame to me for everything that happened over the last year.
Just before JC goes into the xtract piece in his article he talks about the impending difficulties that owners could face in getting the necessary funding for their projects to final development phase. There is a clear trend growing from reporters, fund managers etc echoing exactly my previous point that it will be prime pickings over next couple of years for a company like xtract with its experience, expertise and a revenue source to step in to assist in bringing those small operations that will not be too heavy front end loaded and importantly that have already been largely ‘de risked’ online. These will be the bread and butter that will further underpin the growth and sustainability by bringing in that much needed increased revenues.
………Yet customers, bankers, and government want to know – exactly ! So to get the job, the prime contractor will err on the cheaper and most confident side. Then, when part way through it becomes apparent that eventual profitability won’t compensate for the amount still to be spent, an agonising decision whether to abandon has to be made. It’s a common story in mining, where a half-built project, abandoned because costs have risen or commodities have fallen, leads to bankruptcy for their owners, and remnants which are later bought up cheaply by new entrepreneurs who raise the cash from equally new (and trusting) investors on the likes of AIM. I’m afraid that, in the current highly inflationary environment, with commodity prices going the other way, not a few of those newbies I’ve covered here might be in that position. No wonder news about them has dried up.
But HUM doesn’t look like being one of them – and neither I think will be Xtract Resources (XTR)…….
Steve once again you are quoting utter nonsense and proving yourself as having a rather poor understanding of the project pathway if you think that xtract had decided to just reduce the cut-off.
To determine a cut off grade, you need the strip ratio, it involves dividing the amount of waste rock or overburden with the amount of ore from the resource. Then to work out the open pit slope angle that is going to be required, the geology determines this. So once the slope angle needed, is determined it gives you the strip ratio which is then used toward working out mining costs against anticipated copper price and ultimately if the mine is viable
Mining costs take into account the type of waste material. Mining costs also take into account the quality of the ore and the recovery rate at separation from metallurgy testing. All in all determining the economic cut off grade.
The mining consultants applied the cut off grade of 0.1%.
And as you have always preached, it’s not about the grades, or additionally it’s not even about the quantity, but ultimately what can be economically recovered.
>>So apparently my crime was explaining in detail why I sold? Giving that information to other people so they could make a more informed decision? You are upset because other people understood that information (and consequently saved a lot of money) and you didn't, why is why you are now sat 60% down from that point.
I personally have no problems with anyone posting anything they like. But when it has been shown to be flawed research that had been previously posted, and now making the bold claim that BR is not economic is totally misleading. How could you possibly know, to make that claim? What metrics are you basing it on? Resource size, Copper price, cut off grade, tonnage per annum? Had you taken into consideration what the capital and op costs are? With and, or without bulk ore sorting that will determine plant size to work out the NPV and an IRR to compare with other projects? What net cash margin have you come up with to deem uneconomic? What have you compared it to?
I cannot see how you possibly could have done so at present. So please don’t make these kind of claims as though they were fact steve.
James, the share options to directors and staff were ‘awarded’ to them in early ‘21 with the option to sell ‘from’ 10p
Not required to buy them.
Probably my mistake for referring to as warrants as otherwise they would have been issued to a broker.
With respect
Guy
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/award-of-share-options-m86nqgci5sa5gs0.html
Hi James, when you consider with that early saturation of promo he managed to drive market cap up to £60m. Things could have been a lot different if it were not for Covid and the subsequent economic fall out since. Covid had significantly delayed FB development with its restrictions and port closures that held up the modules being delivered. The economic headwinds since have only increased leaving the resource sector heavily down.
Without any of those headwinds and a plant that would have been producing revenue a potential 12-18 months sooner in a period that analysts in ‘21 were then predicting a bullish market ahead. Can easily see the potential to have continued that push beyond 10p with a lot of the better news available for promo.
I believe there is some validity in my theory certainly earlier on, but that theory i would say in general is more heavily weighted toward what was in that early study when I talk of the ‘perceived disappointment’.
Ultimately, the anticipated bulk low grade tonnages between 0.1 and 0.2%cueq that were deemed pivotal for the viability of the resource is one critical statement in that study.
>>is it any wonder why he was super keen on optimism………
Shows there was an ulterior motive behind exaggerating targets and timescales.wouldn’t you for a £1m bonus? Which begs the question again wether those targets that were given were actually then a genuine expectation? With what there is now being more in line with more realistic geological expectations of quality and quantity of BR’s resources and its optimisation which both aspects were all alluded to in the preliminary study prior to any of the phase 1 and 2 drilling and other technical work being input.
So in that respect, maybe it shouldn’t be looked on as though the project has fallen as far short of those targets, but more in line with what could have and has been achieved from the study recommendations so it should be leaving a far lesser degree of disappointment, if any than the amount currently being perceived by shareholders.
Some positive news at least is that all the warrants that were issued along with the last placing in ‘21 will expire 2yrs after the date they were approved at the ‘21 AGM which will be on Tuesday 24th. About 55 million ‘altogether’ with 49m+ @ 8p
What with the incentivised 24,800,000 directors and staff warrants at 10p that CB would still get of those 10m, is it any wonder why he was super keen on optimism using targets and timeframes to continually try to rally the share price up toward the strike prices.
Early on got close, but no cigar! Which is somewhat ironic.
Also to repeat one of the other points from the RR interview in response to bens good post there.
From 8.57 “When price is not indicative of value and the board have gone quiet, what do you do.” …..I BUY
And to add a variant on Bens point that,
>> Right now, most AIM companies do not offer dividends so there is simply no guarantee of a ROI.
The significant variant to this is,
Right now, most AIM natural resource companies do not have sustainable income to underpin their market cap.
What will see xtract excel, once global demand increases, will not necessarily be only from its own level of promotion that it can put out, but the stability and encouragement that its income will offer through its own continued exploration potential compared to its many peers in the sector that have had to park up their projects through that lack in funding, or even worse.
The longer the recession grips, the stronger xtracts position should be when it turns.