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I think another point that is important to consider, is that with Optimal recommending going down the ore sorting route, it would be pointless to go to the extra effort to work on Cap costs for a 20-25mtpa plant. When the updated study is finally released one would assume that the previous 16 scenarios would be deleted as new scenarios would supersede those as would be based around using modern ore sorting technology, would be illustrated, including, working on and then including the reduced capital costs that a smaller scale but more efficient operation would require.

It would simply be a waste of time and shareholders money money to have gone to the trouble when the costs would have had to have been evaluated all over again. So certainly, ‘not’ including Cap Ex because it is the only way to show it is economic!
That’s plainly wrong because they haven’t released it yet.

Optimising the pit by means of pre ore sorting is something that is alluded to in the preliminary 71mt conceptual study to improve economic viability by “analysing lower production rates such as 12 or 15Mt per annum.” Simply, just to reduce throughput will certainly not improve economic viability without increasing head grade!

It’s something I assumed they would do anyway as par for the course, so didn’t think anything of it. So It’s no real surprise to take these necessary steps to maximise NPV, in a typical low grade high volume porphyry project. With more the reason to do so, to reduce the projects carbon footprint as social tolerances toward open pit mining are ever more demanding meaning major mining companies, not only for efficiency and profitability, but also have a responsibility to take these measures anyway in just obtaining the permissions needed to progress to development stage alone, as environmental legislation tightens.

The pre-concentration study shouldn’t take long to complete and not be that expensive as just four drill core samples have already gone for analysis which looks as though from the RNS that is all that is required. Once the mining study can then be updated to show its economic state, then there will come an optimisation phase of the drilling that is being planned, directed from initial work by Optimal on the mining study that is waiting to be updated with the pre-concentration study.

Overdone as usual but understandable if patience is running thin.

Hello ma what are you not sure of? It’s still early days yet as this updated study due is still conceptual, so there will be a lot of scope and directed toward improving anyway.

What can we expect to see or hope to see, from the updated conceptual mining study?

So at minimum I expect a positive NPV at a lower copper price than $5/lb from it would justify continuing the next phase of the project. Higher the better of course.
Expect to see Ascot potential to contribute to an initial, high grade mining phase from open pit
Expect to see pit optimised to 25mtpa throughput

Hope to see an IRR figure but suspect may not until project gets up to PFS
Hope is to show there is at least some potential that Ascot pit can be joined up with RC pit into one large pit 3k long.
Hope to see some direction toward exploiting the deeper porphyry and gold system below RC and Ascot
What can be included?

Hey Shirley, you are barking up the wrong tree in the woods I’m afraid where this GUY is concerned.

Was referring to post before that one @18.50 although both are relevant

For in ground value yes, but it’s not revenue, its about right as a rough guide, it does just takes into account the approx 10% loss of concentrate from processing.
Example-0.1MtCuEq = 100kt x $10k copper price =$1.B

It is reasonable to assume a very positive NPV will come from copper at $10k per US short ton ($5/lb)
Copper spot price somewhere between $8k -$9k is a more realistic target price though we can hope ‘eventual’ economic modelling can show a desirable NPV on a discounted cash flow basis.

Is Ma or if you dare say Da. Could be Little red riding hood next. Didn’t she grow up in the woods too?

IWTO was one of the closest in the guesstimates of RC resource, good math with a grasp of what drives resource economics and was vociferous in defending RC resource against steve4077 claims with sound reasoning imo.
iWantThatOne post RE: Blocked on Telegram
28 Nov 2022 18:50

If you missed it

The extra $1B revenue from ascot once discounted will give an NPV…… ;-)(

A repost by iWantThatOne from 26 Nov 2022 09:13 who btw is, in my opinion one of the stand out contributors for his knowledge and quality of posting on this board.

>>>We know from earlier modelling that RC pays back the initial capex and produces >$200m NPV at $5/lb. That was based on the original JORC’d resource. We now know that the high grade crown contains more copper-equivalent material than that, at least another 0.1Mt worth >$1bn revenue - again at $5/lb. That’s before you consider the remaining low grade 0.5Mt that would be mined from year 11 onwards. So, very clearly, BR will produce a positive NPV at $5/lb - possibly a very attractive one. The question is then, what about at lower prices? And will the economics be sufficient to attract a buyer? <<<

Since then, the Ascot shallow high grade of 34mt @.33%CuEq can be added to immediately increase NPV by a further $1B which is another 0.1Mt net roughly after recoveries. It has been confirmed that then further drilling will be directed from the updated conceptual study due, to further improve those economics and to add more value as the company take the project toward an eventual PFS to take the project to market. So for now, it does seem clear that this due study is just a snap shot of its current economic state and the targeted drilling will no doubt further improve NPV and with the potential to be economical at a lower copper sale price. CB does appear positive to be able to include the early high grade from Ascot to the model.

Any other factors to consider?

It’s no secret Dani, if you behave they will let you stay. But ok, ma it is. Btw you are wrong about Ella they are meant to be Colin Bird, which then would make you Colin Bird! But, you both cannot be as…….I am Colin Bird

Don’t believe that was the question LW. Costs have been absorbed already toward Kalengwa so no.

CB really does need to keep his emotions in check and not let himself get carried away. Do agree in that respect LW

Hi James yes that would certainly confirm a more definitive withdrawal from Kalengwa. I had only previously caught the action in the comments in the same year end audit which was more vague.

Question is wether it was a genuine reason given regarding remoteness and lack of power, opposed to any disputes or relating to it being the reason?

If the former there would be less reason to suggest Eureka has gone or going the same way with the last update being that they are considering options for possible ‘future’ development. Is certainly open to interpretation though. The wish imo, is for Eureka to be subject of the deal with KPZ having soured which just seems more likely for whatever reason, and Xtract can acquire the exploration and mining rights solely.

To be in the position after trial mining there and a subsequent irregular mett result that was then dismissed as a localised anomoly they were then ready, to proceed with mining and then….. Change their mind?
(Same report)

Let’s hope there is hope still for Eureka, the prospects are tremendous.

Personally Dani no, their posting history shows one of being very anti CB ‘beyond’ the few recent copy pasted onto GLR! There is an ‘apparent’ dispute in ownership of Kalengwa but maybe one that xtr felt was worth getting a foot in the door with KPZ for. Geordie would maybe be in a better position to comment I think but to start speculating and writing Kalengwa and Eureka off by trying to read between the lines is foolish until an update is released.

Adrenalin rush you say! Definitely not an adrenalin junkie, scared of heights, speed, wasps, wife,…..but my reputation for being over optimistic does precede me…apparently

Relating to the deal with KPZ and the ‘legitimacy’ of the disputed ownership. Will see what comes next month when the exploration license is up for renewal. 1st April

Could by why Kalengwa was subordinated

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/comment-regarding-zambia-media-reports-ydfyagthppx9udd.html

Btw Vulcan bob is likely one of the same as pops/kwak multiple disruptive accounts. His history is in exact same copy pasting style and content
Shame on you.

Vulcan bob it’s a sponsored article so biased it’s blatant

Good news for some then Docit another step forward.

Colin still managed to squeeze in a word for the oz team intentional or not.

New podcasts out, unfortunately it’s for BZT

Whilst on the subject of First quantum’s Panama operation. It had $10billion spent overall with $6.5b of that spent by them, and the panama government decided to close it down because First Quantum wouldn’t agree to pay them extra 375m a year in royalty and taxes. This a prime example of the risks from being in geo politically sensitive country or region.

Places such as Australia, North America and Canada are prime examples of places with more stable governments and policies that are supportive of mining. However, there is still the social and environmental factors to consider that are so much more prevalent now within a good jurisdiction. Being in an an environmentally sensitive region poses it own risks too. The Pebble ‘proposed’mine in North America is the second largest ore deposit of its type in the world, it has a measured and indicated resource of 6.46 billion tonnes of ore grading 0.40% copper, plus good gold, silver and moly values drilled over ten years with permitting ongoing for over 15 years now. Unfortunately, as Pebble is located in the pristine Alaskan Tundra, due to major environmental concerns over its waste discharge plan and the catastrophic effect the 50billion gallons+ of toxic waste water from this potentially destructive mine will have , if it ever polluted the many rivers and streams. This is why Pebble will ‘never’ be a mine and rightly so.

No such issues in NSW on both fronts. Jurisdiction is of paramount importance if a potential sale is to be agreed down the line.

The strongest indicator yet that Chinese economy will grow, leading the way for a shift toward an increase in demand.
Chinas influential contribution toward futures cannot be underestimated.

>>>Copper futures jumped above $4.15 per pound, rebounding sharply from the near-two-month low of $3.95 touched on February 27th as strong economic data for China pointed to a sharp recovery in the country’s industrial sector. The latest PMI reading revealed that China’s manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in multiple years in February, opening the way for higher output in the coming months and suggesting the economic reopening had a profound impact on activity. Persistently tight supply also supported copper prices, as production halts in major South and Central American regions compounded concerns about low inventories in the US and Europe, adding to views that copper markets could be heading into a deficit. Besides mining deferments in Peru caused by political unrest, ore processing operations in Panama have been recently put on break due to government tax and royalty payments issues from Canada’s First Quantum Minerals.

• Tradingeconomics.com

His previous other company podcasts have just been general operational updates. Could be similar as Manica and Kakuyu have seen lots happening. Can’t see any worthy news from oz if there is not a preceding updated study RNS

>>>BTW a good way of ridding the emotion FEAR is by having a laugh.....

Could not agree more Ma.

Others would disagree I’m sure by saying, “it’s no laughing matter when people’s money is at stake.”

However just had this from Kwadoku formerly Pops1980
>>>I doubt any of us will ever see our money back

And there it is!

And yet still invested in Colin Bird companies. Why not just sell up and put what you have in one of the ‘better’ opportunities out there? A paper loss is ‘not’ an excuse to cling onto hope that one day it will come good. “Oh well another one to go in the bottom drawer” Investing strategy madness.

Kwak is just another typical AIM investor
https://youtu.be/61Q6wWu5ziY

Hi dani… sorry..,ello ma ( in the voice of nick cotton) if you are not an 80’s lass living in the uk at that time then ignore that.
My prove viable comment was more me being rhetorical than critical of your valuing. Yes I believe we are on the same page.

How I understand it, it is not necessarily about finding the price point the high grade resource shows a positive NPV. But at ‘what’ amount of resource is required to break even at various copper price ranges to see how further, the economics can best be improved on and with what needs to be done to take the resource toward the next level.

So yes I would tend to agree with you. IMO it is ‘not’ a case of wether or not it will be viable, it will be a case of just showing how much potential there is to push the project further up that value curve.