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At least if the WRAP is over-subscribed the BoD can use it as yardstick for any future raises as it'll indicate a level of support from punters.

Hi Damion - I think the way they arranged the raise was for the following reasons

1. Allow the HNWs to get very cheap shares to take some of the sting out of their paper losses

2. Allow some of the BoD to show faith in the compound

3. Offer just £300k to punters simply to cover the loss of the RF drawdown

From what I've seen over the years is the BoD only raise enough cash to cover their short/mid term aims. The current dilution would be far greater if the raise had been effectively open-ended.

Presuming RF dump all their shares from next Friday through to the end of the following week, I have no idea what the sp will do as punters hoover up shares into the new tax year ISAs - will it rise or remain fairly static? The BoD perhaps hope with RF out of the picture the sp will return to a more representative level. If it does, then another raise later in the year will come with less dilution.

Unless a partner comes along prior to a P2a trial with an offer we can't refuse, I think the BoD would do well to start the P2a phase in order to give support to a hopefully increasing sp i.e. even the trolls can't deny that getting a drug that far isn't a remarkable achievement for 2 blokes in a shed.

Hi Ben/Num4 - I only floated the idea of doing the trial in the UK as the Nucleus Network don't appear to do P2a trials, their focus seems to be P1 (see first link below).

https://www.parexel.com/application/files/resources/assets/Australia%20Clinical%20Trials%20Article_Second%20in%20a%20three-part%20series%20(1).pdf

This other link might be interesting to some as it talks about pricing strategies (not that we're anywhere near that point yet but interesting all the same).

https://www.parexel.com/application/files/resources/assets/Australia%20Regulatory%20Market%20Access%20Article_Third%20in%20a%20three-part%20series%20(1).pdf

Yeah, the working capital these US companies must require is huge. When I was poking about the US SEC.gov website for 737 info I came across the Sierra announcement that it was paying their chief exec something like $400k a year plus options (and this was before the GSK merger).

Hi Damion - as a slight aside, whenever I look at US biotechs I'm often amazed by the sheer number of execs they have on their boards. Avenzo appears to have 15 chief execs/vice presidents/directors etc. plus another 5 board members representing the interests of their investment partners. All this and they have just one drug in their pipeline.

Now compare all that to SAR. Imagine if we had 10 staff/hangers-on, the need for finance and inevitable share dilution would be far greater than it currently is. Yes, progress has been very slow at times(!) but 2 blokes in a shed may yet have a shot at glory with 737/1801/1802.

Regards.

Sorry to hear the news, Warthog. Just think warm happy thoughts if they give you a bed-bath ;-)

Just a few points from the March 2023 Investor Meets Q&A -

"First in human data generated in Australia is accepted by regulators world-wide."

"As far as the Phase 1a part of the trial is concerned, we plan to fully conduct that in Australia. For the Phase 1b, if we need to expand that out of Australia, we're not closing any doors, and it's possible that we could look for patients in the UK and other countries. But the current plan is to conduct all the Phase 1 trials in Australia."

"For the Phase 1b portion of our trial, we will collaborate with dermatology clinics that can refer appropriate patients to volunteer for the psoriasis study. One of the many advantages of conducting trials in Australia is the ready availability of psoriasis patients."

Since we appear to be skipping 1b and heading for a 2a trial, the BoD might look for any newer taxbreaks or govt. funding that wasn't available at the time last year.

The Nucleus Network in Oz seems to specialise in P1 trials so I'm not sure if the P2a trial will also be carried out by them. It would make sense if they can do the trial for some degree of continuity but with positive P1a results maybe the BoD will have another crack at getting through the MHRA redtape.

The link below suggests the MHRA has finally got its act together re timelines for approvals and I think the clinical results from Oz would be acceptable to them.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65f463b550397e0011c755a2/MHRA-Performance-Metrics_CIT_2302-2401_CI_2303-2402.pdf

Not sure how trial costs compare between here and Oz but would hope the BoD can maximise cost efficiencies.

Sorry, SOG - I was researching and typing up another thread while you posted this one. Didn't mean for them to overlap.

Assuming the reference to a P2a trial in the RNS isn't a typo, I think 1801 can effectively skip P1b due to a maximum tolerated dose not having been reached. The SAD/MAD/Food effects part of the trial would expose any concerns over dosage.

From what I can gather, a drug can move directly from Phase 1a to Phase 2a though this is not the typical progression. I presume the MAD element of the trial so far has given the safety committee enough data to say we can jump straight to Phase 2a trials based on tox reports and the time taken for the body to excrete the compound etc.

Plus the value increases greatly if we complete a P2a trial verses a P1b trial.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases_of_clinical_research

Hi Potnak - even if RF are dumping shares there appears to be quite an appetite at these prices for buyers to hoover them up.

Just in case any onlookers think all the trades in red are sales, they aren't - my modest buy was below the mid price so the algorithm presumes the trade is a sell.

If LSE had a better system for recording buys/sells I think we'd see a significant number of buys today.

Thanks for the reply Seawolf. I shall now grind my teeth and just wait for the new tax year to add directly via my ISA.

Onwards!

Seawolf - when did you contact them? It might be that the target figure has been reached and the offer is now closed - just a thought.

Thanks for the update Seawolf. I was trying to get through to Halifax when your post popped up so it's saved me a wait.

Regards.

If I've read things right then 1801 may well be at least equal to Sotyktu, possibly even better.

The RNS noted, "...interim data shows that levels of SDC-1801 in blood are already in the expected therapeutic range, and achieve concentrations greater than those predicted to reduce signalling of cytokines dependent on TYK2 and/or JAK1 activity by 50% for a sustained period following once daily oral dosing."

So what this suggests is akin to a high jumper being able to clear the bar with room to spare. What remains to be seen is just how much higher can 1801 jump?

Sotyktu achieves a reduction of IL-17A, IL-19 and beta-defensin by 47% to 50%, 72%, and 81% to 84% respectively following 16 weeks of once-daily treatment (link below). 1801 appears to be in the 50%+ club so it's all still to play for.

https://www.sotyktuhcp.com/mechanism-of-action

Regards.

Hi Meg - I've previously mused that the BoD take a lower salary with bonuses based on share performance as a way of focusing their business minds.

I agree Damion that the next RNS has to bring clarity but I don't know what the timescales are with regards to a rights offering e.g. if they announced one tomorrow, are they able to say it will take place on, say, 8th April or does it have to be within a day or two of the announcement? This is why I wonder if they'll just say they've enough money for the moment but then issue another RNS at the end of next week to declare a rights offer - I'm presuming at this end of the financial year most punters will have used up their ISA allowance so it's maybe better to wait a week or so and do it for the start of the next year when punters maybe have the funds to support it.

Reported stolen: capital letters, last seen on a computer screen just moments ago. WTF?

i presume rf are dumping shares simply to maximise tax losses for the current financial year ahead of whatever their own plans for readmission are. there was some apparent confusion posted the other day about whether riverfort were rgo or not, from the related rns the finance ****fest was with, "...riverfort global opportunities pcc ltd (the "investors" or "riverfort") as arranged by riverfort global capital ltd..." (perhaps their understanding of the word 'investor' is different to mine.)

anyway, in a best case scenario i think we'll get the interim results tomorrow stating they have enough funds to get the 1a data readout and this will form the basis of a new funding arrangement. this will buy the bod a short space of time. they could then do a public offering in the new financial year - punters getting cheap shares that they can have straight in their isas. if they take this approach i think they could get enough money to see us through 2024 & p1b. the bod would do well to also say they're on a reduced wage bill until the end of p1b.

as others have pointed out, the majority of shares are in the hands of punters and we want a fair return. as long as the bod don't act like weasels we can all profit.

if everything works out and new finance allows the sp to rebound then it might be worth remembering the cgt allowance for the next financial year will be just £3000 so if anyone has any shares (not just in sar) outside of an isa it might be worth getting your act together. this is not financial advice, just an observation.

fasten your seatbelts for tomorrow, it could get bumpy.