Member Info for Horsesarse

A bargain

People are really struggling out there. Trickle down economics has been tried before and bombed spectacularly. No need to wait 6 months, the pound is bombing and interest rates about to shift massively.
Tories making a last cash grab before we face the equal misery of labour.
Glad l’m Scottish, we’ll soon be offski and heading back into EU. Northern Ireland will be offski too.
Sadly for my many English friends, these utter can’ts have destroyed the economy and the Union.

7.5% increase in cruise sales for just over a 6 week period.
If sales remained the same, that would equate to an 18% increase in the 15 weeks between now and first cruise in Jan ‘23.
My prediction is that sales will be higher during this period.
Two reasons:
1. Historically this is the key time for booking holidays.
2. Saga clientele will benefit under the mad Tories tax regime.

The top should read -
(Doubles avail)(Singles avail)(Percentage sold)

Spacing went a bit weird.

Cruise sales for 2023 -
Figures checked on 10th Aug and now 26th Sep.

(Doubles)(Singles)(Percentage)
(Avail) (Avail) (Sold)

January
12th - 25th (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (310)(61)(31.83%)
As @ 26/09 - (239)(33)(48.85%)

25th - 8th Feb (Adv)
As @ 10/8 - (323)(73)(28.03%)
As @ 26/09 - (265)(51)(41.84%)

Jan sales @ 10/08 = 29.93%
Jan sales @ 26/09 = 45.35%

February
2nd - 18th Feb (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (176)(23)(62.46%)
As @ 26/09 - (161)(25)(65.27%)

8th - 15th Feb (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (358)(90)(19.32%)
As @ 26/09 - (316)(63)(30.43%)

15th - 28th Feb (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (291)(64)(35.33%)
As @ 26/09 - (206)(21)(56.66%)

18th - 5th Mar (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (166)(20)(64.76%)
As @ 26/09 - (161)(9)(66.87%)

28th - 15th Mar (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (306)(68)(31.93%)
As @ 26/09 - (228)(28)(51.55%)

Feb sales @ 10/08 = 42.76%
Feb sales @ 26/09 = 54.16%

March
5th - 4th Apr (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (128)(0)(74.37%)
As @ 26/09 - (144)(1)(71.07%)

15th - 31st Mar (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (353)(85)(20.82%)
As @ 26/09 - (309)(66)(31.53%)

31st - 22nd Apr (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (117)(0)(76.58%)
As @ 26/09 - (120)(1)(75.88%)

Mar sales @ 10/08 = 57.26%
Mar sales @ 26/09 = 59.49%

April
4th - 9th Apr (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (288)(45)(37.84%)
As @ 26/09 - (270)(38)(42.1%)

9th - 1st May (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (209)(7)(57.46%)
As @ 26/09 - (197)(1)(60.46%)

22nd - 7th May (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (190)(2)(61.76%)
As @ 26/09 - (159)(1)(68.07%)

Apr sales @ 10/08 = 52.35%
Apr sales @ 26/09 = 56.88%

May
1st - 6th May (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (320)(60)(29.93%)
As @ 26/09 - (304)(50)(34.13%)

6th - 21st May (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (303)(62)(33.13%)
As @ 26/09 - (285)(50)(37.94%)

21st - 4th Jun (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (305)(66)(32.33%)
As @ 26/09 - (251)(40)(45.75%)

7th - 14th May (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (284)(49)(38.24%)
As @ 26/09 - (247)(33)(47.25%)

14th - 26th May (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (220)(38)(52.15%)
As @ 26/09 - (190)(24)(59.56%)

26th - 5th Jun (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (97)(0)(80.58%)
As @ 26/09 - (77)(0)(84.58%)

May sales @ 10/08 = 44.39%
May sales @ 26/09 = 51.54%

June
4th - 22nd Jun (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (172)(18)(63.76%)
As @ 26/09 - (142)(8)(70.77%)

22nd - 29th Jun (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (245)(31)(47.85%)
As @ 26/09 - (199)(14)(58.76%)

29th - 16th Jul (Dis)
As @ 10/08 - (118)(0)(76.38%)
As @ 26/09 - (128)(0)(74.37%)

5th - 19th Jun (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (294)(65)(34.63%)
As @ 26/09 - (263)(61)(41.24%)

19th - 6th Jul (Adv)
As @ 10/08 - (234)(33)(49.85%)
As @ 26/09 - (234)(30)(50.15%)

Jun sales @ 10/08 = 54.49%
Jun sales @ 26/09 = 59.06%

Jan - Jun 23 avg sales
As @ 10/08 = 46.86% sold
As @ 26/09 = 54.41% sold

So in a nutshell 54% for first six months and this is only September. I’m pretty content with that.

Saga 23 Sales As @ 10th Aug

(Doubles avail)(Singles avail)(Percentage sold)

January
12th - 25th (Adv) - (310)(61)(31.83%)
25th - 8th Feb (Adv) - (323)(73)(28.03%)
Total Jan = 29.93% sold

Big change to many sailings, particularly January. So, almost one third sold for Jan. is good as far as time on sale goes but still has a fair way to go.

February
2nd - 18th Feb (Dis) - (176)(23)(62.46%)
8th - 15th Feb (Adv) - (358)(90)(19.32%)
15th - 28th Feb (Adv) - (291)(64)(35.33%)
18th - 5th Mar (Dis) - (166)(20)(64.76%)
28th - 15th Mar (Adv) - (306)(68)(31.93%)
Total Feb = 42.76% sold

March
5th - 4th Apr (Dis) - (128)(0)(74.37%)
15th - 31st Mar (Adv) - (353)(85)(20.82%)
31st - 22nd Apr (Adv) - (117)(0)(76.58%)
Total Mar = 57.26% sold

April
4th - 9th Apr (Dis) - (288)(45)(37.84%)
9th - 1st May (Dis) - (209)(7)(57.46%)
22nd - 7th May (Adv) - (190)(2)(61.76%)
Total Apr = 52.35% sold

May
1st - 6th May (Dis) - (320)(60)(29.93%)
6th - 21st May (Dis) - (303)(62)(33.13%)
21st - 4th Jun (Dis) - (305)(66)(32.33%)
7th - 14th May (Adv) - (284)(49)(38.24%)
14th - 26th May (Adv) - (220)(38)(52.15%)
26th - 5th Jun (Adv) - (97)(0)(80.58%)
Total May = 44.39% sold

June
4th - 22nd Jun (Dis) - (172)(18)(63.76%)
22nd - 29th Jun (Dis) - (245)(31)(47.85%)
29th - 16th Jul (Dis) - (118)(0)(76.38%)
5th - 19th Jun (Adv) - (294)(65)(34.63%)
19th - 6th Jul (Adv) - (234)(33)(49.85%)
Total Jun = 54.49% sold

Jan - Jun 23 avg = 46.86% sold.

Given the number of cruises that have had itineraries and durations changed in recent weeks, l’m pretty content with first 6 months being just under half sold.

Scott

Arran is a brilliant cycle
Went there on my 50th, that’s how much l love the place. Island hopping from there is amazing too.

Here’s another good cycle
Day 1 - Fort William through glenfinnan to Mallaig (fish and chips) straight oot the water - the fish l mean.
Day 2 - Ferry to Skye then cycle over Skye bridge, lunch at Eilean Donan Castle and stay at Clunie Inn.
Day 3 - Clunie past Commando Memorial and back to Fort William.
About 50 miles a day - scenery amazing.

3 year share save price set at £7.66
Min £5 - Max £500 per month.
Shrewd way of funding new planes/expansion and hanging onto your staff - who’ll become investors.
All good :-)

Both ships have capacity of 999. They are not restricted to 75%

These were the capacity figures l got nearly two months ago on the 29th May for the rest of this year
Jun - 90%
Jul - 91%
Aug - 94%
Sep - 90%
Oct - 66%
Nov - 47%
Dec - 75%
Avg = 79%
They will of course be higher now.
Your 75% figure is *******s diandto.

75% is not their capacity though.
They can sell 100% so what the hell you talking about?
… and they’re already 49% sold on average for Jan - Aug next year.

One cruise ship cost more than current market cap. It’s undervalued, gotta go up and it’s gonna happen soon

Saga percentage of Cruises sold for 2023 as @15th July 2022.
Based on capacity of 999 per ship.

January
5th - 2nd Feb (Dis) - ?
12th - 31st Mar (Adv) -
(231 double)(23 single) = 485 available - 51.5% sold
Only 1 cruise in January = 51.5% sold.

February
2nd - 18th Feb (Dis) -
(203 double)(24 single) = 430 available - 57% sold
18th - 5th Mar (Dis) -
(198 double)(27 single) = 423 available - 57.7% sold
Average for 2 cruises in February = 57.35% sold.

March
5th - 4th Apr (Dis) -
(177 double)(? single) = 354 available - 64.6% sold
31st - 22nd Apr (Adv) -
(159 double)(1 single) = 319 available - 68% sold
Average for 2 cruises in March = 66.3% sold.

April
4th - 9th Apr (Dis) -
(313 double)(55 single) = 681 available - 31.8% sold
9th - 1st May (Dis) -
(232 double)(22 single) = 486 available - 51.4% sold
22nd - 7th May (Adv) -
(215 double)(12 single) = 442 available - 55.8% sold
Average for 3 cruises in April = 46.3% sold.

May
1st - 6th May (Dis) -
(329 double)(71 single) = 739 available - 27% sold
6th - 21st May (Dis) -
(320 double)(67 single) = 707 available - 29.2% sold
21st - 4th Jun (Dis) -
(332 double)(77 single) = 741 available - 25.8% sold
7th - 14th May (Adv) -
(304 double)(61 single) = 669 available- 33% sold
14th - 26th May (Adv) -
(241 double)(40 single) = 522 available - 47.7% sold
26th - 5th Jun (Adv) -
(114 double)(? single) = 228 available - 77.2% sold
Average for 6 cruises in May = 40% sold.

June
4th - 22nd Jun (Dis) -
(188 double)(29 single) = 405 available - 59.5% sold
22nd - 29th Jun (Dis) -
(262 double)(34 single) = 558 available - 44.1% sold
29th - 16th Jul (Dis) -
(140 double)(? single) = 280 available - 72% sold
5th - 19th Jun (Adv) -
(308 double)(69 single) = 685 available - 31.4% sold
19th - 6th Jul (Adv) -
(263 double)(40 single) = 566 available - 43.3% sold
Average for 5 cruises in June = 49.9% sold.

July
16th - 30th Jul (Dis) -
(322 double)(74 single) = 718 available - 28.1% sold
30th - 6th Aug (Dis) -
(365 double)(70 single) = 800 available - 19.9% sold
6th - 21st Jul (Adv) -
(251 double)(45 single) = 547 available - 45.2% sold
21st - 28th Jul (Adv) -
(342 double)(87 single) = 771 available - 22.8% sold
28th - 11th Aug (Adv) -
(125 double)(1 single) = 251 available - 74.9% sold
Average for 5 cruises in July = 38.18% sold.

August
6th - 20th Aug (Dis) -
(290 double)(64 single) = 644 available - 35.5% sold
20th - 4th Sep (Dis) -
(250 double)(54 single) = 554 available - 44.5% sold
11th - 21st Aug (Adv) -
(180 double)(? single) = 360 available - 64% sold
21st - 28th Aug (Adv) -
(287 double)(56 single) = 630 available - 36.9% sold
28th - 11th Sep (Adv) -
(344 double)(80 single) = 768 available - 23.1% sold
Average for 5 cruises in August = 40.8% sold

Little point going any further than August next year as it’s just too early. However, the average for the first 8 months of 2023 = 48.79% sold.
This is July 15th so these figures are fanta

Recovery is on with good foundations.
Equity release is a huge.
Ridiculously undervalued.

Saga 2023
As at 4th July 2022
Percentage sold

January
5th - 2nd Feb (Dis) - ?
12th - 31st Mar (Adv) -
231x2, 24x1 = 51.3%
Jan = 51.3% sold.

February
2nd - 18th Feb (Dis) -
207x2, 23x1 = 56.3%
18th - 5th Mar (Dis) -
201x2, 30x1 = 56.8%
Feb = 56.55% sold.

March
5th - 4th Apr (Dis) -
188x2, ?x1 = 62.4%
31st - 22nd Apr (Adv) -
171x2, 1x1 = 65.7%
Mar = 64.05% sold.

April
4th - 9th Apr (Dis) -
321x2, 62x1 = 29.5%
9th - 1st May (Dis) -
234x2, 27x1 = 50.5%
22nd - 7th May (Adv) -
221x2, 14 = 54.4
Apr = 44.8% sold.

May
1st - 6th May (Dis) -
331x2, 71x1 = 26.6%
6th - 21st May (Dis) -
322x2, 68x1 = 28.7%
21st - 4th Jun (Dis) -
337x2, 78x1 = 24.7%
7th - 14th May (Adv) -
304x2, 62x1 = 32.9%
14th - 26th May (Adv) -
251x2, 42x1 = 45.5%
26th - 5th Jun (Adv) -
122x2, ?x1 = 75.6%
May = 39% sold.

June
4th - 22nd Jun (Dis) -
194x2, 32x1 = 58%
22nd - 29th Jun (Dis) -
276x2, 34x1 = 41.3%
29th - 16th Jul (Dis) -
145x2, ?x1 = 71%
5th - 19th Jun (Adv) -
309x2, 69x1 = 31.2%
19th - 6th Jul (Adv) -
267x2, 41x1 = 42.4%
Jun = 48.78% sold

July
16th - 30th Jul (Dis) -
328x2, 76x1 = 26.7%
30th - 6th Aug (Dis) -
370x2, 74x1 = 18.5%
6th - 21st Jul (Adv) -
258x2, 44x1 = 43.9%
21st - 28th Jul (Adv) -
343x2, 89x1 = 22.4%
28th - 11th Aug (Adv) -
128x2, 1x1 = 74.3%
Jul = 37.2% sold.

August
6th - 20th Aug (Dis) -
299x2, 64x1 = 33.7%
20th - 4th Sep (Dis) -
252x2, 55x1 = 44%
11th - 21st Aug (Adv) -
200x2, ?x1 = 60%
21st - 28th Aug (Adv) -
293x2, 57x1 = 35.6%
28th - 11th Sep (Adv) -
349x2, 81x1 = 22%
Aug = 39% sold.

Jan - Aug avg.
51.3, 56.3, 56.8, 62.4, 65.7, 29.5, 50.5, 54.4, 26.6, 28.7, 24.7, 32.9, 45.5, 75.6, 58, 41.3, 71, 31.2, 42.4, 26.7, 18.5, 43.9, 22.4, 74.3, 33.7, 44, 60, 35.6, 22

1285.9 divide by 29 cruises
= 44.34% sold as at 4th July.

In summary
We know 2022 sales due to previous similar research. 2023 figures looking good in July.
I’m happy and l’m a miserable sod ;-)

Magic - Yip, that well known phrase about opinions being like *******s.
Stanley’s assessment is particularly brutal though.

Reckon today’s kick in the teeth comes from Morgan Stanley’s wholly destructive assessment of Carnival. Next week can’t come quick enough.

Magic - there will definitely be no dividend. Conditions for reinstating were quite specific and challenging.
l could be wrong but l seem to recall the closed period for share purchasing is 1 month for interim/quarterlies and 2 months minimum for full year.

Definitely undervalued.
Cruise now over 80% sold for year - Insurance year after year gives consistently good returns - travel in general l won’t get excited about, still finding its way - streamlining of company will now start to reap rewards - don’t forget to add in travel insurance sales which will be significantly up.
There is a huge downturn, we all know that.
Travel is not fairing well and markets seem to lose sight of this mainly being an insurance company.
I firmly believe however that my two ‘travel’ stocks Jet2 and Saga - are about to provide very positive forward looking announcements and better times.

Insurance producing £100 million profit pa.
Cruise back and selling well - go try book one and you’ll see how few cabins are available.
This price is laughable - based on a falling market and negativity towards the travel sector in general.
Wish l had some spare cash.