Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
MMs couldn't give a flying f*** what the share price is. Get over yourselves, we're really not that important. They'll buy and sell all day long and make a nice margin every time, and that's it.
Any definitive JORC report is a year away at least.
The stcok exchange don't publish buy and sell numbers, just individual trades. It's third parties trying to determine which are buys and which are sells that is inaccurate, because it's based on guesswork. It's normally not far off being right but when prices are more volatile it's less accurate.
Because what you are treating as gospel, official data, isn't. You don't know how many buys and sells there have been because they are tagged by an approximate, non-fit-for-purpose guesstimating algorithm.
Yeah, it's only a 40% fall in a couple of weeks. Stop being pussies!
What you think are buys might not be. Don't place any reliance on the stated direction of any trade - it's nothing more than a guess based on the execution price.
On what planet does that make any sense? "Harder to raise funds after the asset sale"??? The asset sale is the mother of all fund raises!! If the asset sale was really close why are we raising $15m rather than waiting for an imminent injection of, apparently if one believes this board, billions?
EUA and unnamed "institution" have a nice chat:
EUA: Hey, wanna make some cash?
II: Sure, what do you have in mind?
EUA: Well, we could issue a bullish RNS to drive the price up.
II: OK, then what?
EUA: Then you forward sell a load of shares at a discount to the ramped share price.
II: How does that help me make money?
EUA: Easy! We'll then sell you the shares at 26p via a private placement.
II: Oh, I see where you're going...
EUA: Yeah! You pocket the difference, and we've raised a load of cash we can use however we like.
II: But how will you explain the need for the placement?
EUA: Oh, we'll just go on about JV funding or something. Works every time.
II: Rums and doubles all round!
Is this what happened? I don't know. But I do know we never found out who bought the last round of "private placement" shares, and I'd bet dollars to doughnuts we never find out this time either. Does make you wonder.
Looks rather like the SP is rapidly catching up to the true value already. Catching down, rather.
Three-baggers aren't so hot when they used to be six-baggers.
The share price has just about halved now in the last six months - and yet the usual rampers couldn't be more positive.
If this isn't cr4p, what does cr4p look like? 15p?
Barring changes in MM floats, sales = purchases. Every trade is both a purchase and a sale. If your data implies something different over anything but the shortest of time horizons, re-examine your data...
I suppose that's the trouble when there's nothing much happening. Old arguments just get rehashed ad infinitum. The bashers are repeating the same old negatives (market doesn't believe; sale prices of in-ground assets tend to have enormous discounts) and the rampers are repeating the same old positives (brilliant BoD; last unconsolidated play; you'd have to be nuts to think it'd go for less than $x bn.)
The former will never convince the latter, and vice versa. Eventually one or the other side will be proven right. I hope it's the optimists, as I have a reasonable holding, but I am far from certain - despite what the zealots on both sides say, both sets of arguments have their merits.
For me personally, the easiest people to ignore are those who are absolutely certain they are right (on whichever side.) I distrust certainty in general; it's usually a sign of either excessive emotional investment or a lack of capacity for analytical thought.
View, singular, you mean.
What's the point of a board consisting solely of optimists patting each other on the back?
End of the week?
25p-30p Just like virtually every single other week anyone can remember.
Yes, we've bought the right to purchase 75% of the assets at today's hypothetical value in the next two years. So either we prove up better-than-expected assets and get to buy them relatively cheaply, or we walk away.
Am I understand this right?
We've paid $500k for the right to buy a 75% share of one or more new mining assets at any point in the next two years, with the purchase price based on the theoretical price of the assets as at today? So it's like a call option (or several call options) on a load of potential mines?
Downside = loss of the $500k and whatever we spend working out which of the potential assets we like
Upside = potential buy-in of our choice of the assets, with the price fixed on what is known now
Does that sound about right?
Do we really think the price rise was in direct response to speculation on this board about AAs RNS? I think we might be over-stating our importance.
This of course would actually be a good thing. If the price rise isn't directly related to the AA speculation (which appears to be a huge over-reaction to a regular refinancing arrangement) then perhaps it's actually related to something else, that might be really happening. I certainly hope so.
What did they buy when they issued exactly the same RNS last year?
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AAL/publication-of-offering-circular-aonkp39xsu8sc5s.html