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Both companies will be eyeing this as cheap time to acquire Mobico

be nice if both put in an offer and see a rally to 200 regions

I-squared taking over MCG now is completely rational in the context of combining with Arriva.

transforming both businesses over 5 years into mammoth, with big cost savings and improved profits.

Time to strap in, expecting I Squared Capital to have secured a nice line of finance, and already been talking to major share holders at Mobico. Would expect an RNS on intent to acquire with the next few days.

They will want to move fast while adding in Arriva in order to merge the 2.

It would be best for I Squared Capital to get the takeover done now before the N.A. bus sales.

I Squared Capital are US based, they will love owning a slice of American Pie.

If they have the funds for takeovers, they have funds to deal with the debt, as such the sales of N.A buses is not needed.

Fundamentally, I cant see how I Squared Capital would pass up the opportunity to takeover Mobico now while the price is so low.

Rolling Mobico into arriva would create amazing cost reductions and increase profits.

Then I Squared Capital would be the dominate force and can negotiate far better costings on new electric buses, and they can share drivers for a better reliable service.

If I Squared Capital has "€2bn to expand and electrify Arriva’s fleet", then the idea that they would have £2b potential to spend buying up Mobico to add to their transport network is completely possible.

I would hope that I Squared Capital put in a bid within the next week before the price starts naturally moving north again.

Deutsche Bahn offloads company to Squared in deal worth £1.4bn.

Deutsche Bahn – paid €2.7bn for Arriva in 2010.

I Squared said the US private equity firm had committed €2bn to expand and electrify Arriva’s fleet after its takeover, with a significant portion of those funds expected to be spent on its UK operations.

PI investors in this share are looking in the short terms and you need to look long term and with the business in context of wider market changes.

Cars are becoming a luxury or business item, large proportion of public moving to public transport, plus the growth of big apartment blocks without parking.

It looks like we are now entering the post fossil fuel age, and geo-politically cutting ties with OPEC nations.

As such, transport networks will move to electric, and the use of personal transport will diminish.

Debt during these times of high inflation and interest skews any rational way of valuing a business.

I'm using asset and revenue/profit models to cost out MCAP of Mobico.

The company has tangible assets, and is an essential infrastructure, this is a value share.

I would expect takeover offers from Squared Capital and Flixbus, given the synergies with their portfolios, and the massive cost reductions they could leverage to increase profits.

Mobico's BoD has due for the chop, and the major share holders would have had crisis talks last week to begin looking at ways to sell the company to ensure they make profit or break even.

Takeover bid from Squared Capital could happen, they just bought Arriva PLC from Deutsche Bahn AG.

Takeover Mobico and combine with Arriva into be more cost effective across both, and have a fully operational network.

Squared Capital could roll out a full integrated transport network and payment system.

Sharing drivers, buses, and administration for cost reductions and increase profits.

Squared Capital paying about EUR1.6 billion for Arriva, includes around EUR1 billion in debt still owed by Arriva.

So would expect a bid in the £1.5b to £2b range for Mobico.

For the size of operations, the fleet, the contracts, and everything, an MCAP of £900m is the rational price.

I would expect a takeover bid to be launched by Flixbus soon, and the major holders will look to sell off and clear position.

Perfect synergies, and consolidates their market position.

Could we see a takeover for £1b?

Lots of tech, IP, and Client Contracts to be had.

Would expect a US takeover bid to land soon with the share price where it is.

200 would be a reasonable target for the major holders to approve and push it through.

Lots of key tech in the 5G and WiFi, plus market access to key international data systems.

This is a perfect takeover to get key tech IP, gain lucrative clients, and access international data infrastructures.

Taking in account all assets and contracts looking at 200 a share as fair value, and to make the major holders happy.

Shares mostly owned by investment funds now, and they will want a takeover to make profit and have cash.

As such, any decent offer around 200 a share would potentially be considered.

Would expect a takeover offer to be made soon while the price is still low.

Price where it is, could see a takeover bid coming by another tech company to get all the companies IP and Contracts

RNS - BLS Capital have increased holding from 8% to 9.32%

Wild beating down of the share price since Feb 2023, down 47%.

And very little shares have actually been sold today relative to the available.

This market is wild, sneeze and a hurricane happens.

Im odds on favourite for a takeover bid from Flixbus.

They have growth across Europe through acquisitions, so makes sense.

Plus buying Mobico gives them the keys to the UK