Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
BIGHOW. These conferences are how the major pharmas (who knows a thing or two about “what the medical world needs”) can see the progress made by small companies like SAR. It’s basically a sales pitch. SAR have been to lots of these over the years. Most don’t seem to amount to much, but they have to keep trying to sell their discoveries.
I’m holding as the in-vivo trials (tested in animals rather than in-vitro - tested in cells) seem to indicate real progress for the COVID-19 aspect for TYK2.
My personal opinion is that Aurora + FLT3 is a last stab at getting value and CHK1 has a much more limited potential than previously thought (although that could change given a more committed partner). Right now, IMO, it’s TYK2 and all of the potential it has shown in multiple targets is the one programme that could be the real game changer. Even without the hints SAR have given via Twitter about COVID-19, it probably was worth a gamble, but this extra dimension should make the majors even more willing to licence. Or at the very least, provide alternative funding as let’s face it, if ever there was an “unmet need” this is surely it. GLA
Although the world is looking for a vaccine for COVID19, lots of media and the WHO have been saying it might not be possible. After all, a vaccine for the common cold (which is also a coronavirus) has been a focus of major pharma for years and would have been worth billions yet it hasn’t materialised. Assuming there is no vaccine, the only way things can return to “normal” would be to get an effective treatment so if you get it and end up in ICU, it isn’t a 50/50 outcome. Once this is available COVID will most likely become something that is just one of those things you get from time to time.
All of the tweets from SAR refer to TYK2, so let’s assume nothing happens on CHK1 or Aurora FLT3 for a while. One of the first things to do is get it into trials. This costs so hopefully a licensing deal or a grant as a placing to go it alone would mean the other avenues had been exhausted and no one was willing to risk funding it at this stage.
Normally, the IND process takes ages but timescales are shortened now. SAR would still need to demonstrate that they could make it in sufficient quantities and that it doesn’t degrade over time, route, dosage etc. This is one of the reasons that the current focus is on things that are already in phase 1 trials at least as these requirements have already been met.
Those who know me will know what I’m going to say next. It’s still a very big risk for someone to fund a potential new drug at such an early stage in development as there are other potential treatments out there and this will be reflected in any initial deal if it happens. But TYK2 looked very promising even before COVID and with the potential for it to be a real game changer for something that has impacted the whole world, I really wouldn’t be surprised if the major pharma “risk / reward” appetite changes. It could lead to a very big headline figure, but even if it was backloaded (i.e. small upfront, much bigger when approved) it would be “transformational” in a way Tim couldn’t have imagined all those years ago when he first used that phrase. GLA
Me too. I think the tweets and the BioTrinity presentation(s) are basically a big sign to say that SAR might have something that everyone wants. As I said the other day, due to the early stage of TYK2 in the cycle, I’m not expecting hundreds of millions up front of a deal happens, but certainly enough to keep everyone happy. The rapid development COVID19 enables (if it happens) alone will be worth millions and any back end milestones (phase 3, royalties etc) could happen very quickly.
Malbrun. SAR usually present at the BioTrinity and have consistently over past few years released the RNS on the day of the presentation. What’s different is that it doesn’t usually cause a 35% rise. These presentations usually don’t amount to much in the short term (as far as I can tell) but with the potential of TYK2 to treat the worst cases of COVID19 (and the shortened timescales that that brings) I wouldn’t be surprised if this time was different. GLA
Sorry about that lutonnews. He just used to annoy me by distorting the facts. It’s easy to ramp or deramp based on what we know or what might feasibly happen, but Mr Os incessant nonsense did get my back up once or twice :)
#Covid-19 and sepsis:
SARS-CoV-2 and viral sepsis: observations and hypotheses thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Sepsis and TYK2:
Tyrosine kinase 2 promotes sepsis-associated lethality by facilitating production of interleukin-27 ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Sareum $SAR.L #AiM #biotech #TYK2
Ahfam3. There will be a big difference between the price for a vaccine and a treatment. The vaccine will probably be given to billions of people, the treatment only goes to those with severe symptoms and SAR don’t do vaccines. That said, the treatment is an immediate need and will be for some time to come. I think the large pharmas will be looking to get their hands on anything that could work so it wouldn’t surprise me if one or more are looking at the TYK2 data now and if they think it shows promise, they will move very quickly for a deal with SAR. If that happens I don’t think the upfront will be more than about £50-100m as TYK2 is at an early stage in the development cycle and they will probably be looking at more than one option. So lots of risk still involved for the buyer but any subsequent milestones will come rapidly after that due to much shorter timescales for COVID19 clinical trials. As for a potential total deal size, again, a guess but I would have thought a billion wouldn’t be too unreasonable. GLA
Did Thoth ever adjust the 26p valuation? Only joking, he does do a lot of research which is always appreciated.
I was talking to someone who works in the local Respiratory Assessment Unit the other day who mentioned that the best way to describe the impact on the lungs of COVID19 was like psoriasis of the lungs hence my decision to buy in again. That could also make sense of the TYK2 / Cytokine Storm tweet earlier. It wouldn’t surprise me is lots of pharmas are getting as many TYK2 candidates as possible and having a look to see if they have any invitro or invivo impact. One thing is for sure, things will move quicker than normal for anything that shows even the slightest promise. GLA
Hi all. Yes, I sold a while ago but bought back in yesterday. I have been keeping an eye here and things do seem to be getting interesting after a few setbacks. Let’s hope we get more news on the COVID angle as that would really be a game changer that would deliver a very steep rise. If not, well we’re all used to waiting. GLA
My take on that. 737 is good and looks like the current trials will go forward but more aligned to less common cancers. They said they in the US and EU, there are still 40-50k potential patients a year. So not a small number. But the best results could come with the triple therapy. These trials and the data they have gathered will help with that. No indication of when the milestones will come (but still looking very likely for the next one at some point). GLA
Sorry for the hiatus. Yes I sold. But for personal reasons. As a non shareholder I won’t be able to attend the AGM. But have we started the “let’s meet up in a pub” thing yet? There is a good chance I’ll be very near London Wall that day. Am hoping to buy back in soon BTW