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no bid came anywhere clear the $6 billion of secured indebtedness that exists on on the company’s balance sheet today.”

Oh well

https://deadline.com/2023/02/regal-parent-cineworld-chapter-11-bankrutpcy-multiple-bids-for-all-or-some-assets-but-wont-cover-debt-restructuring-1235266686/amp/

Presentation has now ended and I don’t have audio so the rest will have to wait and see for transcript , media reports. no names named but big clues in use of words “many offers” and “strategic interest”

You have to log in main highlights so far on sale

Final bid deadline is April 10

They have had strategic interest, many offers including rest of world

Second phase to begin

Admissions

They did 19% better then forecast Jan
0.5% better in Feb then forecast ytd 19th Feb

Presentation on screen!

Seems It has become my mission in life to correct this $3.8bn rumour that Cine paid for Regal - the actual figure clearly stated on page one of this investor report from 2018 was $5.8bn by Cine themselves (link below) - when you add the dissenting shareholder judgement this gets you to $6bn

https://www.cineworldplc.com/sites/cineworld-plc/files/reports-presentation/2018/interim-results-presentation-2018.pdf

based on what’s been discussed improvements to the business, forecast back to pre covid revenues etc my hunch is it should be worth at least what they paid for it if not more given the vastly upgraded estate and new prime venues

Throw in Cine UK and I would say it’s at least arguably worth at or north of $7bn if they agree with Cine (and other industry analysts such as PWC) that box office is likely to be at or exceeding 2019 by 2024

As I said in a previous post - if there is an Amazon or Netflix interested they cannot simply open up next door to all these locations - IF they want to get into the cinema business they will need to buy their way in and hopefully pay a reasonable premium to do so

https://www.screendaily.com/news/global-box-office-will-return-to-pre-pandemic-level-by-2024-forecasts-pwc/5161540.article

RI - I would not rule anything out given the twists and turns this rollercoaster ride has provided over the last 3 years.

They certainly have the funds to make a handsome bid for what is clearly a viable business in its own right , the political dimension has interest with the Israeli / Arab element to it not sure whether that helps or hinders

The only thing reliable is that everyone posting on this boards predictions have been consistently wrong - I could list them but this post would exceed the character limit

Anyone who thinks they occupy some better informed position (particularly the lth “realists” on here ) have zero credibility as if it were true they would have had the foresight to sell out long ago before all the calamities took place and the price was riding much higher

As far as I am concerned expect the unexpected and that includes the possibility of securing a significantly much better deal then numbers being thrown around

Latest Mojo figures showing 40% improvement compared to same period in Feb 2022 - if this persists that would see a $510m finish or 82% of 2019 - unlike 2022 that only had one big release (uncharted) vs Marvel Ant Man to be released plus others every chance we could see an even better result

Maid - again Hexam has beaten me to it and explained where the dates of the price targets (pre C11) are on the link

You can F and blind to your hearts content it’s not my concern you don’t read the links properly before you post them

@bulls

For avoidance of doubt about the $5.8bn this is the statement from Cine

https://www.cineworldplc.com/sites/cineworld-plc/files/reports-presentation/2018/interim-results-presentation-2018.pdf

@bulls

Your statement that $3.6bn was paid for regal isn’t correct - Cine initially paid $5.8bn for Regal - you can verify that on the Cine investor presentations - they then had to resolve the regal shareholder lawsuit so ended up about $6bn for the US business alone.

As per the argument I made with the 90 odd loss making cinemas closed, renegotiated rents, alongside all the numerous capital upgrades that took place since the regal transaction PLUS the Cineworld U.K. business to the right buyer thid should be worth far more then the figures quoted personally I could see it worth north of $7bn combined to a low leveraged/cash buyer

Also worth bearing in mind the site locations for cinemas can’t simply be copied or replicated - eg Cineworld Leicester Square - no matter how much Amazon or others would like to they can’t just pitch up next door and compete , same goes for prime US locations - for the right buyer eg Amazon they will have a huge retail footprint ready to go in prime locations alongside a running business

Positive to see double digit interest in the purchase let’s hope that gets the bidding war we all want to see and get out of this with a few pennies in the pocket

@Maid - Hexam already confirmed what I said but in response as he said the link you refer to also says 11 August same as the Barclays shares research site I used -so now there are two sources saying the same thing

I’m not saying 40p isn’t possible but just there aren’t any analysts making any such case right now

I don’t like popping balloons but from digging deeper the 40p price targets were from 11 August and some time in July - i.e before the C11 nosedive - my source is the Barclays share research site

Happy to be corrected

Regal was bought for $5.8bn (not the 3.8bn someone quoted in a previously post) . Add to that the dissenting shareholders and the regal business valuation was about $6bn.Since purchasing the business it has undergone a massive refurb programme some stats:

111 new screens in 2018 (Screen X 4DX etc) & Associated refurbs of flagship cinemas
Launched Regal unlimited i.e. new ways of generating recurrent revenue
131 Imax, 117 Super Screen, 66 4DX and 33 Screen X in 2019 plus 6 brand new sites in 2019 alongside refurbs

Now with C11 they have leaned down and closed a significant number of crumbling and underperforming sites

A potential buyer is benefiting from this significant capital investment and repositioning of the business across US & UK

On top of this the sale includes the UK Cineworld business which was not part of the $6bn for Regal

So the idea has to be sold at a knockdown price is silly in my eyes – I am not making cast iron predictions but would argue it is certainly to the right buyer worth north of $7bn debt and equity combined – of course not guaranteed but willing to consider this as a possible realistic upside case

I am sure some smart person will say “but the business is making a loss” yes Cine cannot cover its costs but an incoming buyer using much less debt to fund the purchase or 100% cash and is willing to stake on the trajectory to pre 2019 revenues is buying a business that is in much better infrastructure to capitalise on that.

So if there are enough buyers minded to believe that then there is a chance we leave with something in our pockets after all this is done.

@bulls yes I could see them on the goto meeting stream they had the slides up but I couldn’t hear them talking to the slides as I wasn’t dialled in

Elvis - bullets from the PowerPoint deck Cine lawyers are presenting

“Numerous parties have executed NDAs related to the sale” debtors will evaluate indicative offers

Sounds like there is more then one kicking the tyres -

Elvis - not sure how to listen in but the docket says it is taking longer place on Wednesday 8th not tomorrow

Nice post Hussart - good to see professionals concur with my rationale of comparing the significant year on year increase of Jan 22 with 23 when others on here poured cold water on the idea

Let’s hope potential buyers pay heed to this kind of analysis rather then the doom and gloom that haunts these board’s